A more appropriate headline would read, 'Find Your Favorite off-shore betting account and go the other way'. That said, here goes....
Texans vs Bengals
These teams are remarkably similar. Per Football Outsider, they rank 16th and 17th respectively in offense - 14th in passing for the Texans and 19th for the Bengals and 16th in rushing for the Texans and 14th for the Bengals. Both teams play top ten levels of defense.
The biggest difference is the direction that these teams are going at the moment. Houston has lost 3 of 4, including a disastrous 28 point spanking at the hands of the Patriots while the Bengals closed the year winning their last 3.
Considering that both teams are so-so offensively and strong defensively while the Bengals have the momentum, this should be an easy pick for the Bengals, right?
Not so fast - using Football Outsider's weighted DVOA rating that weighs more recent games more heavily, Houston is ranked 11th while the Bengals are rated 12th.
Is there any reason to think one team is considerably superior than the other or matches up well with the other?
In this type of game, I would expect points to be at a premium and a key defensive play to swing the game - this is where I think Houston holds an edge. Despite their pedestrian skill players, Houston does hold up well in pass protection, rating 9th in adjusted sack rate while Cincy is an awful 28th. This is relevant because the Bengals are 2nd in adjusted sack rate defensively, while Houston is 6th.
While I think that this is going to be a low scoring game, I expect Houston's fierce pass rush to feast on Dalton; if you assume that Houston can do a reasonably decent job of corralling A.J. Green, it's difficult to see where the Bengals get enough points to win this thing.
The pick: Texans 20, Bengals 13
Vikings vs. Packers
A believer in momentum would look at the Vikings' recent victory over the Packers and think that the Vikings have a real chance to pull the upset; I am more dubious.
Look at the circumstances of that game:
-Adrian Peterson rushed for 199 yards.
-Christian Ponder never turned the ball over; throwing for 3 Touchdowns, a career high.
-Minnesota sacked Rodgers 5 times while allowing only one sack of their own.
-Minnesota never turned the ball over and were + 1 in the Turnover department.
-Minnesota was at home.
-Minnesota won by 3.
5 things that are all reasonably unlikely to repeat themselves and will almost certainly not occur simultaneously were in play to allow the Vikings to defeat the Packers....by 3.
The Packers' questionable defense, which has given up 30 or more points 4 times this year will be at home, where they have only given up 30 points once.
I don't think it's likely that the Vikings will have the requisite firepower to keep up with the Packers in Lambeau; what happened last Sunday in Minnesota was more likely an aberration.
The pick: Green Bay 31 Minnesota 20
Colts vs Ravens
Indianapolis has been the wonderful feel good story of the year - a head coach battling cancer, a rookie QB, a franchise coming off a 2-14 season, free agents off the street playing key roles, an interim head coach who was the scapegoat in a disastrous playoff exit by the Steelers last year (note: Pittsburgh gave up 30 points to a Tebow led team and somehow the Offensive Coordinator is to blame? That really seems reasonable). What's not to like?
Well, quite a bit really. Grantland's Bill Barnwell has written several different pieces eloquently outlining why the Colts are fool's gold. I won't go through the whole argument here, but I'll outline the key pieces:
-Football Outsiders has the Colts ranked 26th overall.
-The Colts have the point differential of a team that typically goes 7-9.
-The Colts achieved this against a schedule that ranks as one of the league's easiest by any measure.
While I don't exactly think that Baltimore is some thundering juggernaut, I do think their quite a bit better than Indianapolis is; Baltimore at least managed to have a positive point differential, and despite their myriad of injuries that they suffered this year should be the healthiest on Sunday than they have been in a very long time.
The Ravens have also been very good at home - scoring a pair of blowout victories against teams with winning records and also managing to defeat New England on a questionable last second field goal. Indy has been quite poor on the road with 4 double digit losses to their name including a 26 point thrashing at the hands of the Jets!
While I don't expect Baltimore to survive past this round, I think this week is a fairly easy victory for them that suckers some folks into thinking their better than they really are.
The pick: Ravens 31 Colts 17
Seahawks vs Redskins
I wish this game had been the Saturday primetime game - I really do think this is the best game on the docket this week and I'm really looking forward to watching this one.
I spent some time thinking about how I thought this game would go because it impacted my fantasy playoff draft last night.
Case for Seattle
-If you're a believer in momentum, the Hawks have as much of it as anyone - with 3 straight wins including curing their road woes with 2 impressive road wins in the streak, two games where they scored 50 + during the steak and a 29 point thrashing of San Franscisco.
-Seattle gave up the fewest points in the league.
-Seattle had the point differential of a 12 win team, all while doing it against an above average schedule. By way of comparison, Washington had the point differential of a 9 win team, against a pretty average schedule.
-Seattle finished the year as the very best team per Football Outsider's final rankings, while Washington finished the year as 9th in the same rankings.
In summary, the case for Seattle is pretty blunt; by virtually any statistical measure they are a superior football team than Washington and appear to be peaking at the right time.
Case for Washington
The case for Washington is a little bit more subtle.
-The 'mighty' Seattle juggernaut has a tendency to fall apart on the road; just 3-5 away from Quest field and if you believe in momentum, the Skins have more of it than Seattle with an impressive 7 straight wins.
-Football Outsiders has the Seattle rush defense as just 12th - it's much more difficult to pass on them. Meanwhile, Washington owns the league's best rushing attack. Isn't it possible that Washington could neutralize Seattle's stiff defense and maintain strong ball control?
-While Seattle's offense as a whole is quite potent, it's their rushing attack spearheaded by Marshawn Lynch that is the focal point of their offense - finishing 1st in Football Outsider's rankings. That attacks the strength of Washington's defense which is their rushing defense, which finished 5th in rushing yards allowed. If Washington's defense can hold Lynch under 100 rushing yards, they have a legit chance - Seattle has a point differential of just +6 in the 6 contests where Lynch has had fewer than 100 rushing yards.
What I think will happen:
I believe Seattle has cured their road woes and that it will not be a factor Sunday in Washington. While it's true that the run game has been vital to Seattle's rushing attack, their passing game is 4th per Football Outsider's and can't be ignored. Lynch has also been able to rack up big yardage totals against stout defenses - he managed to rush for 100 yards in both contests against the 49ers and has been held under 85 just twice - that 100 yard mark is more of an arbitrary data point than anything.
While it's true that Washington poses a unique and very real threat to Seattle, I think that Seattle will win an exciting, down to the wire game that will hopefully be one of many playoff appearances for two talented young QBs.
The Pick: Seahawks 24, Redskins 20.
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