Through the 1st two rounds of the playoffs, this column is 8-0 against the spread. While I don't think it's likely I'll finish a perfect 11-0, it's fun to try (note: I have not actually placed any wagers).
San Francisco vs. Atlanta
49ers on Offense
The 49ers have been much more explosive offensively since Kaepernick (CK going forward) took over at quarterback, scoring 29 PPG vs. 24 with Alex Smith. What's even more impressive is that they have done that in spite of Frank Gore slowing down - since CK took over, Gore has had 3 games of < 4 YPC while just 1 with Alex Smith. I don't believe there's any causal relationship there - CK is the more mobile runner which should help Gore if anything and the offense as a whole has displayed more firepower.
What's more is that we know how Atlanta typically fares against teams with a similar offense to the 49ers because Atlanta has played 4 such games - at Washington, two vs. Carolina and one against Seattle. While 4 games is a fairly small sample size, it's a nice indicator. Part of the reason that Atlanta struggles is because it seems they have a below average rush defense - Football Outsiders says Atlanta's rush defense is 21st in the league and they were ranked 21st in rushing yards allowed.
In those 4 games, Atlanta gave up 26 PPG - 7 points above their season average, and to show how meaningful that is, Atlanta averaged 26 PPG. On the other hand, all 3 of these teams ranked top 10 in Offensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Is this a scheme issue or is this just an issue of struggling against powerful offenses?
Atlanta had 3 other games against top ten offenses (per DVOA) and only gave up 22 PPG in those games - still above their season average. While we're dealing with small sample sizes, it's not unreasonable to say that Atlanta struggles with the type of offense that teams like the 49ers run.
What makes the issue worse for the Falcons, is that you can make the argument SF with CK has a more powerful offense than Washington, Seattle or Carolina as the 49ers averaged more PPG with CK as QB than those other teams did.
Given Atlanta's struggles against this type of offense and SF appearing to be the best at it, this looks like a poor defensive matchup for the Falcons. Based on the stats, an expected point value in the high 20's-low 30's seems fair for the 49ers in this game.
Falcons on Offense
We know that (at least based on the sample sizes we have) that Atlanta will probably struggle to slow down the 49ers. Can Atlanta's offense generate enough firepower to keep up?
You think of Atlanta and with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White an explosive vertical passing game is easily conjured. And while scoring the 7th most points in the league, their defense is what powered the team, statistically - ranking 5th in the league. The 49ers have an even stingier defense - ranking 2nd in the league at 17 PPG allowed in the regular season.
Is there any reason to think that the Falcons' passing attack will pose a substantial problem for the 49ers?
The Falcons passing attack gave the team the 3rd most expected points this year while the rushing attack took away points, per pro-football reference. In the Harbaugh era, let's examine how the 49ers did against top 5 passing attacks based on expected points.
In those games, San Fran's offense has yielded 25 PPG - nearly 10 points above their 2 year average.
The natural inclination is to see that number and think that we have a shootout on our hands. But the Falcons' rushing attack is much worse than those other teams - finishing just 29th in YPC. I don't think the Michael Turner resurgence is going to be replicated against San Fran this weekend either - that game seems more like an anomaly.
When the rushing attack is controlled for, you likely have to take a point or two off Atlanta's total.
The road?
Historically teams going west to east have struggled - is there anything about the 49ers performance in games in EST that makes us think that the 49ers will get off to a sloppy start against the Falcons, a la Seattle?
This year the 49ers played 4 games in the EST - against the Jets, Saints and Patriots.
They won all those games by a touchdown or more. For comparison's sake, let's look at the Falcons' most recent opponent - Seattle. The Falcons played 6 such games and were .500 in them; the road woes that apply to Seattle do not seem to apply to the 49ers.
Taking all things into consideration, the argument for the Falcons is that they can make enough big plays down the field to turn this into a shootout and they have the more explosive passing attack. The problem is that this game will put an enormous amount of pressure on their passing attack and while their passing attack is very powerful, I think there are too many headwinds.
The pick: 49ers 28 Falcons 23
Baltimore vs. New England
Ravens on Offense
Based on what I wrote last week we're going to assume that the Patriots will probably get to at least 30.
Can Baltimore make this a game?
One line of reasoning would tell us that Baltimore should be even-odds to beat the Pats. After all, dating back to their '09 playoff battle where the Ravens hammered the Pats 33-14 in New England, the Ravens are 2-2 in their last 4 encounters and have the edge in point differential. Pick the Ravens and call it a day, right?
Not so fast. Football Outsider's Aaron Schatz tells us that only 5 New England starters were even on the team in '09 and moreover, that New England's defense had it's worst statistical performance against it's most recent game against Baltimore, while Baltimore's offense had it's best game against the Pats that day - and won by a point on a field goal that may or may not have gone in at home.
While that game may have been anomalous, some of the things that allowed Baltimore to score 31 are not. Flacco's strength is the deep ball and New England's defense is most vulnerable to that.
New England is 30th in punts forced per drive, but 1st in forced turnovers per drive, per Football Outsiders. They are also 21st in Yards Allowed per drive, suggesting a defense that gives up very little in the short game, but quite a bit down the field.
If you believe Baltimore's offense can keep up with the Patriots, then you likely believe Flacco is a very good QB and that the specific vulnerabilities of New England's defense should allow Flacco to complete enough deep passes to keep the Ravens in striking distance.
Patriots on Offense
Projecting out the Patriots offense isn't that hard - using my link above, we can peg New England for at least 30.
One of the things I wrote about Baltimore last week is that if you believe in them to beat Denver then "That the Ravens D is closer to the defense of the past few years and
that the myriad of injuries suffered this year make their defensive
statistics irrelevant. This year, the Ravens were 12th in points
allowed; not bad by any means, but this is a stark cry from the 3rd
place finish each of the past 3 years. To pick the Ravens, you have to
believe that the absences of Ngata, Suggs, Lewis and Ed Reed are the
primary cause for the slip and that this is still an elite defense when
all are healthy."
That was something that I believed, although due to aging, I suspected that the Ravens defense was probably 5th or 6th when all their players were healthy.
While I believe the Ravens D is still elite when healthy (and they proved me right last week) the Ravens defense has now been on the field for over 80 plays per game the last 2 weeks. If fatigue sets in, that would be a problem. Furthermore, on Wednesday's BS Report, Aaron Schatz told Simmons that teams who just played an OT game on the road traveling to a team that has been at home the last 2 weeks lose on average about 5 points in DVOA.
What is 5 points in DVOA worth? Some relevant comparisons - the difference between the Packers & Bears or Ravens & Bengals or the Saints & Chargers.
I'm not going to sit here and rule out Baltimore because of fatigue - what I am going to say is that any specific advantages that they have against New England in recent years might be partially off-set by the fatigue issue.
Overall, I think this will be a very close game but the Patriots have to be considered the more likely of these teams to win.
The pick: Pats 31 Ravens 28
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