Gotta Have Faith

This weekend all 4 road teams are underdogs and play teams with superior records and/or teams that trounced them in the regular season.  In order to justify picking any of these teams, it requires a belief in (at least most of) a specific set of facts.  What must you believe in order to pick our Road Teams?

To pick the Ravens over the Broncos, you must believe....

1.  That the Ravens D is closer to the defense of the past few years and that the myriad of injuries suffered this year make their defensive statistics irrelevant.  This year, the Ravens were 12th in points allowed; not bad by any means, but this is a stark cry from the 3rd place finish each of the past 3 years.  To pick the Ravens, you have to believe that the absences of Ngata, Suggs, Lewis and Ed Reed are the primary cause for the slip and that this is still an elite defense when all are healthy.

2.  That Joe Flacco has become (or is) a great, not good quarterback.  Baltimore has always finished in the top half of the league in scoring during Flacco's career and has improved their standing each of the last two years.  Advanced metrics suggest that Flacco is not elite - he finished 25th in QBR and 17th in DVOA.  On the flip side, the Ravens have won at least one playoff game every year during Flacco's career (although Grantland's Bill Barnwell suggests that is almost all because of their defense.)

3.  That the 33-14 trouncing that Baltimore suffered at the hands of Denver a month ago is meaningless.

4.  And so is the fact that Manning has won 9 straight against Baltimore (including playoffs).

5.  That Baltimore's Special Teams advantage (ranked 1st in DVOA vs. 13th for Denver) will yield a meaningful advantage Sunday in Denver.

What do I believe?  I believe in some of the things that I listed and I do think this game will be closer than most believe.  Whatever you do believe about Baltimore, they are an intelligent team that is almost always well prepared for big games - you don't get to be 54-26 in the Flacco/Harbaugh era by being a pushover.  I think the Ravens will be competitive Sunday but ultimately fall short.

The Pick:  Denver 23 Baltimore 17

To believe that the Packers will topple the 49ers you must believe....

 1.  That the week 1 game where San Fransisco physically dominated Green Bay in Lambeau is an abberation.

2.  That the last 10 quarters without a healthy Justin Smith are truly indicative of the 49ers defensive strength without Smith that has seen SF give up a pro-rated 34 points per game.

3.  That Justin Smith will not be at full strength.

4.  That San Fransisco's starters will burn out.  ESPN's John Clayton notes that 9 of SF's starters have been on the field for an incredible 982 snaps this off-season.

5.  That Colin Kaepernick is a downgrade from Alex Smith.

6.  That Green Bay's rush defense will be able to solidify; it ranked 14th in DVOA this year while San Fransisco's rush offense was 3rd.

7.  That Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' passing attack will score enough early to put pressure on the 49er offense to take them out of their comfort zone.

What do I believe?  While it's easy to envision a scenario in which the Packers burst out of the gate and Rodgers shreds the SF defense, I don't believe that is the most likely scenario.  We've seen teams with physical secondaries rough up the Packers receivers before and we have seen teams effectively control the ball against the Packers.  I don't believe fatigue will impact the 49ers in this game - they have had 2 weeks off to prepare and the play count number is artificially driven by multiple SF overtime games plus the instant classic game at New England.  The 49ers excel at running the ball and being physical with opposing receivers and should be able to repeat their prior success vs. the Packers. 

The pick:  San Fransisco 27 Green Bay 21

To pick the Texans against the Patriots you must believe....

1.  The 42-14 stomping of the Texans a month ago is an abberation.

2.  That Matt Schaub can exploit the 23rd (per DVOA) ranked Patriot pass defense enough to keep the Pats honest in the ground game and set up effective play action.

3.  That Houston's pass rush will break through to sack Brady.

What do I believe?  I know that I listed fewer facts, but let's be honest - the last 2 points have been the recipe for beating the Pats over the past few years - it's not a complicated formula but few teams have been able to pull it off.  While it's true that the Texans are a strong defense, the Patriots faced 8 defenses ranked in the top ten per DVOA and averaged 34 points per game.  If you're not a DVOA believer, the Pats averaged 30 PPG against teams ranked top ten in scoring defense.  Bottom line:  The Pats expected point production in this game is somewhere in the low 30's.  I don't believe Houston has a high enough voltage offense to keep up, although I don't think they'll lose by 4 Touchdowns again.

The pick:  New England 31 Houston 20

To pick the Seahawks over the Falcons you must believe.....

1.  That Advanced Metrics are more important than win-loss record. 
The case for Seattle is simpler than it is for the other teams.  The other home teams are ranked 2nd-4th in DVOA and with Seattle, also round out the top 4 in point differential.  That's why you have to talk yourself into the other road teams and believe that they must achieve very specific objectives.

With Seattle, that's not really necessary.  Not only do they belong with the Pats, 49ers and Broncos, the Falcons have more in common statistically with the road teams in this round than the top 3.  The Falcons are 10th in Total DVOA and had an expected W-L record of 11-5 against a below average schedule.  Those metrics are indicative of a good team but not an elite team - not a championship caliber team.

2.  Aside from a belief in Advanced Metrics, to pick Seattle you must also believe that their 3-5 regular season road record is not meaningful; that their round 1 win vs. the Redskins and 4 game overall road winning streak  is proof that they have overcame their regular season road woes.

What do I believe?  I am a believer in the advanced metrics.  I do think that Atlanta being at home and having 2 weeks to prepare will give them some boost and it wouldn't be shocking to see Atlanta win this.  However, that is not the most likely outcome. 

The pick:  Seattle 28 Atlanta 24