I didn't post after Games 3 and 4, because due to traveling, I only saw bits and pieces of Games 3 and 4. I did watch all of Games 1, 2 and 5 and between that, box scores, recaps and the parts I saw, I feel good about writing a Finals Power Rankings.
1. Lebron James
He finally did it. He finally put it all together with a dominant 30-10-6 postseason and a 29-10-7 Finals - not to mention superb defense and showing signs of maturation as a person and a player. We can NOW call him one of the all-time greats after putting together a Finals and Playoffs on par with you know who. The real question is, can he win more? The Thunder clearly aren't going anywhere and have demonstrated the ability to learn from their defeats. Wade is still excellent but is slowing down, Bosh is clearly a glorified role player and they don't have the ability to add anything more than a mid-level exception player. In their next 2-3 drafts, it will be pivotal for them to get solid role players and how Chalmers develops will also be crucial.
2. Russell Westbrook
Before this decision (no pun intended) gets dissected (and let's face it - you're either out or all in on Westbrook), let me pose a few questions if you think Wade or Durant should be here:
A) How many games can you make a case that Wade was the best player on the floor? How about Durant? Westbrook? I score it 0, 1, 2 in that order.
B) Why on earth would you pick Wade when Westbrook outscored, rebounded and assisted him over the course of these Finals?
C) How does Durant impact the game besides scoring? How does Westbrook?
D) If we're really supposed to put Durant here, why can he still not get to his spots any time he wants against an aging Shane Battier?
I get that Westbrook is highly polarizing and that he definitely takes some stuff off the table but those are some tough questions to answer for a Durant or Wade supporter.
3. Kevin Durant
A mildly disappointing first Finals, of what I'm sure will be many for Durant. He demonstrated that he is the best scorer bar none in the league, but we already knew that (31 PPG on 55% shooting???!!!!). Durant has the ability to ascend from a great player to one of the all-time greats by:
A) Getting stronger so he's not getting pushed around so far out from the basket.
B) Learning to influence the game in ways beyond scoring.
C) Learning when to say 'guys, I got this' more consistently.
Again, not a total disaster or anything, but he should have done more.
4. Dwayne Wade
Miami winning the series may mask this, but Father Time is slowly catching up to Wade. Westbrook clearly established superiority vs Wade in these Finals and Wade's offensive game has devolved into barreling towards the basket and hoping the refs bail you out.
Think I'm being too harsh? This is the 3rd straight year where his gross production per minute has declined and he submitted the lowest % of free throw attempts: 2 point attempts of his career. I'd make the trades I proposed following Game 1 in a heartbeat.
5. Chris Bosh
This was a nice series for Mr. Bosh because I think he's finally figured out his role on this Heat team:
Hit open jumpers, rebound, defend the paint (albeit more through ball denial), be a versatile enough defender where you can guard anyone 3-5, and be able to carry the offense in short spurts to make life easier for James and Wade.
Is that worth $16 M a year? Hell no. Does that make him more of a role player than a star? Unfortunately, yes. But if the Heat are to win multiple championships, Bosh is going to have to continue his evolution towards Kevin Garnett, Circa Boston and less like the confused guy we saw last year.
6. Shane Battier
This was his destiny: Be the ultimate glue guy, knock down 3 pointers, play superb defense and do the little things. Any good team can use him - now the question is, can he repeat this effort next year.
7. Mario Chalmers
A nice little mini-coming out party for Chalmers where he showed us new pieces of his game (great, not just good Defense, the ability to beat people off the dribble and carry the offense for stretches). The downside? What did he do to have Lebron and Dwayne always bitching at him? Did he sleep with Lebron's mom? Will he get so pissed off that he does sleep with Lebron's mom? Regardless how he handles his place and how he is treated by the bigger stars on the team will be interesting to watch. There are several good teams where he would make a nice fit should the Heat decide they need to trade him (Chicago, New York, Dallas, Los Angeles (both Lakers and Clippers), OKC.
8. Erik Spoelstra
His job is safe and we don't have to hear anymore 'these guys are CRYING in this locker room!' jokes anymore or Riley conspiracy theories. He also clearly got the better of Scott Brooks, realizing who needed to play in this series and who didn't - something Brooks totally missed the boat on and helped the Heat maintain their composure long enough to avoid elimination 3 times after falling behind and making the appropriate adjustments.
9. Serge Ibaka
This series wasn't exactly Ibaka's shining moment, although he played better than Kendrick Perkins, and like Durant, it wasn't a total disaster. One would have liked to see him own the paint a little bit more than he did and aggressively step up to the challenge of containing Lebron single-handedly. Still, if nothing else, he proved to be a more reliable offensive weapon than Perkins and has at least developed his offensive game to the point where you're not playing 4 on 5 with him out there.
10. James Harden
Speaking of disappointments, this series was a huge letdown for Harden who had the worst performance vs expectations of any Thunder player coming into the series and may have cost the Thunder the series given that Durant averaged 31 ppg on 55% shooting and Westbrook at minimum, acquitted himself well (that boy COMPETED!). Harden should have been the X factor for the Thunder; outside of Durant and Westbrook they just don't have enough other ways to generate offense and Harden should have been that 3rd scoring threat, but he was too inconsistent.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Power Rankings: Game 2 - Return of the King
1. Lebron James
Forget the stats - as impressive as they were - the most telling image that will stand out in my mind was the last meaningful possession of the game when he stopped Durant, ended up with the ball and knocked down two free throws to win the game. During this postseason, James has started to erase the ghosts of playoffs past - despite a lengthy absence from Bosh and inconsistent effectiveness from Wade.
2. Kevin Durant
Another dominant 4th quarter to be sure - but he needs to assert himself earlier so that the Thunder don't need 4th quarter theatrics to pull out the win. Another alarming trend has reared it's ugly head - Durant - more than any other dominant player in recent memory - struggles to affect the game if he's not scoring. We're picking knits here to be sure - but these two issues will determine when Durant will get his first championship - 2012 or sometime in the future.
3. Dwayne Wade
Wade nicely regained his footing - although it is starting to appear doubtful that we'll see him make the top 2 of this list going forward. Wade set the tone for the Heat early, coming out aggressive at both ends of the court and sending a message that he was out to avenge his sub-par Game 1. I stand by my trade comments from Game 1.
4. Russell Westbrook
File his game in the 'stats don't tell the whole story' cabinet - that was about as awful a 27 point, 8 rebound and 7 assist performance as you can possibly have. His first half was abysmal as he forced shots, took the Thunder out of their offense single-handedly and dominated the ball - taking it out of Durant's hands, eerily reminiscent of last year's playoffs.
5. Chris Bosh
Speaking of bounce back games...holy Bosh! The last time he was this effective was last year's conference finals when he made Carlos Boozer his bitch. The best part of tonight wasn't that he had a 25 point 10 rebound game - it was that he was a physical presence inside, hauling down 16 boards, playing outstanding interior defense and successfully occupying the paint offensively.
6. James Harden
On a per minute impact, he would be #3 on this list, but Scott Brooks' incompetence limited Harden to 30 minutes. The Thunder should never be down 16 by the time Harden first enters a game - and he single handedly kept the Thunder from getting KO'd n the first half. One must wonder if Brooks will play Harden greater minutes in Game 3 as an adjustment.
7. Shane Battier
Robert Horry 2.0. Wow.
8. Serge Ibaka
The Thunder 's 2nd best player in the first half, Ibaka was tremendous in protecting the paint from numerous Heat defenders and it felt like he saved the Thunder about 20 points.
9. Mario Chalmers
His offensive game wasn't as effective as it was in Game 1, but his defensive efforts against Westbrook were invaluable - had he not rendered Westbrook completely ineffective early, the Heat likely would not have withstood the Thunder's late surge.
10. Oklahoma City Fans
Right now Oklahoma City is Megan Calvet to Seattle's Betty Francis - except if Betty were actually likeable and Megan was never likeable, sexy or funny. No one wants to like the mistress and she will always have a negative stigma associated with her; but these fans have created the same feel at Chesepeake Arena as the crowd at Yum Center has for Louisville men's basketball. At least we the tax payers didn't fund that...oh wait. We're going to stop this now before I start sounding like my Dad does about Lucas Oil.
Forget the stats - as impressive as they were - the most telling image that will stand out in my mind was the last meaningful possession of the game when he stopped Durant, ended up with the ball and knocked down two free throws to win the game. During this postseason, James has started to erase the ghosts of playoffs past - despite a lengthy absence from Bosh and inconsistent effectiveness from Wade.
2. Kevin Durant
Another dominant 4th quarter to be sure - but he needs to assert himself earlier so that the Thunder don't need 4th quarter theatrics to pull out the win. Another alarming trend has reared it's ugly head - Durant - more than any other dominant player in recent memory - struggles to affect the game if he's not scoring. We're picking knits here to be sure - but these two issues will determine when Durant will get his first championship - 2012 or sometime in the future.
3. Dwayne Wade
Wade nicely regained his footing - although it is starting to appear doubtful that we'll see him make the top 2 of this list going forward. Wade set the tone for the Heat early, coming out aggressive at both ends of the court and sending a message that he was out to avenge his sub-par Game 1. I stand by my trade comments from Game 1.
4. Russell Westbrook
File his game in the 'stats don't tell the whole story' cabinet - that was about as awful a 27 point, 8 rebound and 7 assist performance as you can possibly have. His first half was abysmal as he forced shots, took the Thunder out of their offense single-handedly and dominated the ball - taking it out of Durant's hands, eerily reminiscent of last year's playoffs.
5. Chris Bosh
Speaking of bounce back games...holy Bosh! The last time he was this effective was last year's conference finals when he made Carlos Boozer his bitch. The best part of tonight wasn't that he had a 25 point 10 rebound game - it was that he was a physical presence inside, hauling down 16 boards, playing outstanding interior defense and successfully occupying the paint offensively.
6. James Harden
On a per minute impact, he would be #3 on this list, but Scott Brooks' incompetence limited Harden to 30 minutes. The Thunder should never be down 16 by the time Harden first enters a game - and he single handedly kept the Thunder from getting KO'd n the first half. One must wonder if Brooks will play Harden greater minutes in Game 3 as an adjustment.
7. Shane Battier
Robert Horry 2.0. Wow.
8. Serge Ibaka
The Thunder 's 2nd best player in the first half, Ibaka was tremendous in protecting the paint from numerous Heat defenders and it felt like he saved the Thunder about 20 points.
9. Mario Chalmers
His offensive game wasn't as effective as it was in Game 1, but his defensive efforts against Westbrook were invaluable - had he not rendered Westbrook completely ineffective early, the Heat likely would not have withstood the Thunder's late surge.
10. Oklahoma City Fans
Right now Oklahoma City is Megan Calvet to Seattle's Betty Francis - except if Betty were actually likeable and Megan was never likeable, sexy or funny. No one wants to like the mistress and she will always have a negative stigma associated with her; but these fans have created the same feel at Chesepeake Arena as the crowd at Yum Center has for Louisville men's basketball. At least we the tax payers didn't fund that...oh wait. We're going to stop this now before I start sounding like my Dad does about Lucas Oil.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
NBA Finals Game 1 Power Rankings
1. Russell Westbrook
Durant may have been the closer, but Westbrook was the one who carried them while they were struggling and did an outstanding job setting up Durant. 27-11-8 and lockdown second half defense is damn impressive. Coming into the series, my expectation was that Westbrook would have at least one game where you would think 'Wow, he could win Finals MVP!', two games where he made Wade look downright ancient (this was one) and one or two bonehead games.
2. Kevin Durant
After being a bit too passive for my taste through 3, Durant cranked up the defensive intensity and the scoring load in the second half - closing out the game for the Thunder.
3. Lebron James
It's not his fault. It's really not. He scored 30 points, snagged 9 rebounds and grabbed 4 assists - not to mention wreaking havoc on the defensive end early by disrupting OKC's passing lanes with 4 steals. He just needs more help.
4. Dwayne Wade
Let's not kid ourselves - there is a chasm separating the top 3 from him. If not for him assisting the early 3 point barrage that gave the Heat an early lead, he would be lower on this list.
In related news, if Miami loses, I would offer Wade for Bynum, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard. Immediately. It's not just tonight - he really looks like he has lost a step or two.
5. Nick Collison
After stealing Shane Battier's thunder (see what I did there?) for key role player who could swing this series, it will be interesting to see what kind of run Scott Brooks gives him for the rest of the series; he was the most effective of OKC's 3 big men tonight.
6. Mario Chalmers
I loved what he did early, but he totally disappeared in the second half. If Bosh's injury is still lingering and my above hypothesis on Wade is even remotely correct, Chalmers is going to have to morph into Super Mario for Miami to have a chance.
7. Shane Battier
For the first quarter, all I could think of was the Robert Horry game from Game 5 of the 2005 Finals.
8. Thabo Seflosha
This is why numbers don't tell the whole story. He made James WORK for his 30 points and was highly effective against anyone he defended. He also kept James Harden glued to the bench in the 4th quarter.
9. Chris Bosh Haters
If Miami loses this series, it is widely believed that the Heat will be broken up. 10 points and 5 rebounds isn't going to cut it, buddy.
10. Serge Ibaka
He wasn't spectacular, no, but he played solid defense, helped OKC have a +8 board advantage and didn't take anything off the table.
Durant may have been the closer, but Westbrook was the one who carried them while they were struggling and did an outstanding job setting up Durant. 27-11-8 and lockdown second half defense is damn impressive. Coming into the series, my expectation was that Westbrook would have at least one game where you would think 'Wow, he could win Finals MVP!', two games where he made Wade look downright ancient (this was one) and one or two bonehead games.
2. Kevin Durant
After being a bit too passive for my taste through 3, Durant cranked up the defensive intensity and the scoring load in the second half - closing out the game for the Thunder.
3. Lebron James
It's not his fault. It's really not. He scored 30 points, snagged 9 rebounds and grabbed 4 assists - not to mention wreaking havoc on the defensive end early by disrupting OKC's passing lanes with 4 steals. He just needs more help.
4. Dwayne Wade
Let's not kid ourselves - there is a chasm separating the top 3 from him. If not for him assisting the early 3 point barrage that gave the Heat an early lead, he would be lower on this list.
In related news, if Miami loses, I would offer Wade for Bynum, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard. Immediately. It's not just tonight - he really looks like he has lost a step or two.
5. Nick Collison
After stealing Shane Battier's thunder (see what I did there?) for key role player who could swing this series, it will be interesting to see what kind of run Scott Brooks gives him for the rest of the series; he was the most effective of OKC's 3 big men tonight.
6. Mario Chalmers
I loved what he did early, but he totally disappeared in the second half. If Bosh's injury is still lingering and my above hypothesis on Wade is even remotely correct, Chalmers is going to have to morph into Super Mario for Miami to have a chance.
7. Shane Battier
For the first quarter, all I could think of was the Robert Horry game from Game 5 of the 2005 Finals.
8. Thabo Seflosha
This is why numbers don't tell the whole story. He made James WORK for his 30 points and was highly effective against anyone he defended. He also kept James Harden glued to the bench in the 4th quarter.
9. Chris Bosh Haters
If Miami loses this series, it is widely believed that the Heat will be broken up. 10 points and 5 rebounds isn't going to cut it, buddy.
10. Serge Ibaka
He wasn't spectacular, no, but he played solid defense, helped OKC have a +8 board advantage and didn't take anything off the table.
Sunday, June 3, 2012
Mission: Protect the Future of the US (Part 5 - Finale)
In parts 1-4 in this series, we outlined in lengthy detail a proposal that would have a reasonably high probability of keeping the United States in strong fiscal/financial standing if implemented. This proposal is not the only way to achieve that end, but in my own mind, it is the best way to get there. Any proposal meant to get the U.S. Deficit under control for the long term will face significant criticisms from both sides of the political aisle. What I'm going to do is address 3 hypothetical questions that might be raised by a liberal and a conservative that come to mind when viewing this proposal. At the end, all sources will be listed.
Liberal #1:
Your proposal raises income taxes considerably on those who can least afford to pay. How do you justify this?
A: Presently, 47% of the population pays no federal income taxes - this is a widely known fact. While we would in fact be raising federal income taxes on that group, we would simultaneously be reducing their tax burden through payroll taxes - thus helping the 'working poor'. In fact, the payroll tax rate would fall from over 9% to 2.5% under my proposal; offsetting part of the income tax hike. Additionally, employers would have zero responsibility for providing health care for this class of individual, and the 'mean' employer has seen their overall tax burden fall through this proposal. In the aggregate, this proposal has reduced barriers to hiring the working poor, enabling them to have greater economic mobility. Bear in mind however that part of the reason they would have to pay something under my proposal comes back to an all too familiar phrase - we can't afford for them to not pay anything through Federal Income Taxes.
Liberal #2:
Under your proposal, someone like Mitt Romney will pay a lower proportion of his income in taxes than someone earning $40,000 a year at a job. How do you justify this?
A: This has a two part response.
1) This proposal would raise taxes on Mitt Romney, per his tax return.
2) One of the major pillars of this proposal is that it looks to encourage investment and entreprenuership. Through investments, Romney is providing capital to firms and businesses. This capital allows firms to hire, to invest in R&D, to open new factories, to start new wings of the business, develop new technologies, etc. If the firm employing the individual in the question did not have capital, they would not be able to hire them. A pro-growth policy must encourage individuals to invest and start their own businesses by instituting lower tax rates for them.
Liberal #3:
By stripping away or reducing so many Federal Agencies, you also reduced the number of jobs. Are you worried about the economic impacts?
A:
1) The jobs that have been stripped away were largely funded on borrowed money. Funding these jobs has the same effect as borrowing money to give away in a lottery. The reality is that all government jobs are funded by A) Taxation B) Deficit Spending C) Inflation.
In the long run, these jobs that have been eliminated would cost more than any multiplier effect - because the size of the interest on the deficit would wipe out their impact.
2) Barriers to hiring have been reduced; as the marginal cost of labor has shrunk, so will the demand for said labor.
3) Crowding out Effects. The link is a simpler explanation of the impact of high, sustained long term government spending on private investment.
Conservative Issues
While a Democrat would approve of many of the over-arching themes (reduction in military spending, increase in taxes on the 'rich', the liberal slant on social issues, the national health care plan) and likely find issues with the details/execution, a Republican would be upset about three key themes:
1. Military Spending Reduction
As noted in part 3, when accounting for inflation, this plan proposes higher levels of spending on Defense than at any point in the 1970's; an era where we were engaged in Vietnam for the first half of the decade.
2. The National Health Administration
As noted in parts 2 and 3, the U.S. spends more per capita than any other nation in the world on health care, with middling results. Aside from that, I am not a physician. I care more about getting value from our health care system then who is the provider.
In this link, single payer issues are addressed at a length that this article does not have time to address.
3. Taxes
From the Bush to the Romney to the Palin to the Ron Paul, each major republican archetype is going to have trouble swallowing a tax hike. There are 2 major reasons why my proposal institutes a tax hike:
1) Deficits. This proposal reduces nearly 20% of Federal spending while instituting a single payer health care system. While that's a substantial reduction to be sure, the fact remains that a net 33% reduction in Federal spending from present would be needed, just to prevent any tax increases being required; that would still leave Americans facing the health care issues that they do today. Bottom line: The deficit chasm is so wide, that it is virtually impossible to do through spending reduction alone. This proposal tries to close the deficit chasm, while simultaneously provide meaningful health care reform AND change the tax code. Which leads to...
2) Efficiency. This proposal tries to raise taxes in a way that will have minimal disruption on the overall economy.
A) A large portion of the tax increase comes through marijuana, prostitution, divorce and dead folks.
B) Without credits and deductions in place, profit maximization now becomes the name of the game, as opposed to engaging in tax reduction behavior.
C) Reduction in taxes that businesses pay.
D) Reduction in obstacles to hiring.
E) Encouragements for investing and entreprenuership.
Sources
Liberal #1:
Your proposal raises income taxes considerably on those who can least afford to pay. How do you justify this?
A: Presently, 47% of the population pays no federal income taxes - this is a widely known fact. While we would in fact be raising federal income taxes on that group, we would simultaneously be reducing their tax burden through payroll taxes - thus helping the 'working poor'. In fact, the payroll tax rate would fall from over 9% to 2.5% under my proposal; offsetting part of the income tax hike. Additionally, employers would have zero responsibility for providing health care for this class of individual, and the 'mean' employer has seen their overall tax burden fall through this proposal. In the aggregate, this proposal has reduced barriers to hiring the working poor, enabling them to have greater economic mobility. Bear in mind however that part of the reason they would have to pay something under my proposal comes back to an all too familiar phrase - we can't afford for them to not pay anything through Federal Income Taxes.
Liberal #2:
Under your proposal, someone like Mitt Romney will pay a lower proportion of his income in taxes than someone earning $40,000 a year at a job. How do you justify this?
A: This has a two part response.
1) This proposal would raise taxes on Mitt Romney, per his tax return.
2) One of the major pillars of this proposal is that it looks to encourage investment and entreprenuership. Through investments, Romney is providing capital to firms and businesses. This capital allows firms to hire, to invest in R&D, to open new factories, to start new wings of the business, develop new technologies, etc. If the firm employing the individual in the question did not have capital, they would not be able to hire them. A pro-growth policy must encourage individuals to invest and start their own businesses by instituting lower tax rates for them.
Liberal #3:
By stripping away or reducing so many Federal Agencies, you also reduced the number of jobs. Are you worried about the economic impacts?
A:
1) The jobs that have been stripped away were largely funded on borrowed money. Funding these jobs has the same effect as borrowing money to give away in a lottery. The reality is that all government jobs are funded by A) Taxation B) Deficit Spending C) Inflation.
In the long run, these jobs that have been eliminated would cost more than any multiplier effect - because the size of the interest on the deficit would wipe out their impact.
2) Barriers to hiring have been reduced; as the marginal cost of labor has shrunk, so will the demand for said labor.
3) Crowding out Effects. The link is a simpler explanation of the impact of high, sustained long term government spending on private investment.
Conservative Issues
While a Democrat would approve of many of the over-arching themes (reduction in military spending, increase in taxes on the 'rich', the liberal slant on social issues, the national health care plan) and likely find issues with the details/execution, a Republican would be upset about three key themes:
1. Military Spending Reduction
As noted in part 3, when accounting for inflation, this plan proposes higher levels of spending on Defense than at any point in the 1970's; an era where we were engaged in Vietnam for the first half of the decade.
2. The National Health Administration
As noted in parts 2 and 3, the U.S. spends more per capita than any other nation in the world on health care, with middling results. Aside from that, I am not a physician. I care more about getting value from our health care system then who is the provider.
In this link, single payer issues are addressed at a length that this article does not have time to address.
3. Taxes
From the Bush to the Romney to the Palin to the Ron Paul, each major republican archetype is going to have trouble swallowing a tax hike. There are 2 major reasons why my proposal institutes a tax hike:
1) Deficits. This proposal reduces nearly 20% of Federal spending while instituting a single payer health care system. While that's a substantial reduction to be sure, the fact remains that a net 33% reduction in Federal spending from present would be needed, just to prevent any tax increases being required; that would still leave Americans facing the health care issues that they do today. Bottom line: The deficit chasm is so wide, that it is virtually impossible to do through spending reduction alone. This proposal tries to close the deficit chasm, while simultaneously provide meaningful health care reform AND change the tax code. Which leads to...
2) Efficiency. This proposal tries to raise taxes in a way that will have minimal disruption on the overall economy.
A) A large portion of the tax increase comes through marijuana, prostitution, divorce and dead folks.
B) Without credits and deductions in place, profit maximization now becomes the name of the game, as opposed to engaging in tax reduction behavior.
C) Reduction in taxes that businesses pay.
D) Reduction in obstacles to hiring.
E) Encouragements for investing and entreprenuership.
Sources
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)