Throughout the course of the season, the most common criticism I have gotten about my College Basketball rankings has been how highly I have Duke – not just that I have consistently had them ranked highly, but that I have had them ranked higher than Kentucky. Some have been outright dismissive of my rankings, solely over that one ranking ‘violation’ in the minds of critics.
I must admit that visually speaking, this ranking does not meet the eye test. Kentucky has two players I would draft in the top 5 if I were an NBA Team (Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist) along with the likely top overall pick (Davis). When I see Duke play, I see a national championship contender. When I see Kentucky play, I see the national championship favorite.
However, my rankings continue to steadfastly maintain that Duke has accomplished more than Kentucky – so let’s break down why; all stats referenced are through last Sunday.
Duke has played more games outside of it’s building than Kentucky.
Homecourt advantage is a tremendous advantage in college basketball; home teams win more than 2/3 of their games. Both Duke and Kentucky have played 29 games and Duke has played 14 of them away from home vs 12 for Kentucky. That 2 games may not seem like much, but for elite teams, the homecourt advantage virtually guarantees victories. The top 25 teams in my rankings have a combined 92 winning percentage at home – a ¼ of them have not lost at home. Those same teams only have a winning percentage of 70 in neutral and away games. Three of those teams who were nationally ranked (Michigan, Indiana, Notre Dame) possess a .500 or worse winning percentage outside of their building. No team in my top 12 has played fewer non-home games than Kentucky. Only one team in the same group has played more non-home games than Duke (Temple).
Duke has played more quality teams than Kentucky.
Duke has played 11 games against the RPI Top 50; 8 for Kentucky. Duke has played 18 games against the RPI Top 100; 12 for Kentucky. The reason that the top 100 is relevant is that my top 16 lose about 1 in every 6 tries to teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI – a win is expected but it’s hardly a guarantee. That same group wins 96% of the time against teams ranked outside the RPI’s top 100 – that effectively means that Kentucky has 6 more ‘gimmes’ than Duke, or put another way, Kentucky has played 40% of it’s schedule against teams that would have any meaningful chance of defeating them on a neutral court. To find a team that has played fewer games against RPI top 100 teams in my rankings, you have to go all the way down to #15 (Wichita State). Only two teams in the country have played more games against RPI top 100 teams than Duke (West Virginia – a bubble team who I have in, and Villanova). If you just look at games against RPI Top 50 teams, Duke has played the median number of games of all the teams in my rankings’ top 25 – Kentucky’s 8 are fewer than every BCS Conference team ranked in my top 25.
Duke has played more of it’s difficult games away from it’s building than Kentucky.
Let’s just look at games against teams that are in the tournament according to my rankings at the moment (note: this helps Kentucky and hurts Duke since I have SEC Miss State in and ACC Miami out).
Here is Duke’s list in the format of team, my ranking, result with games in bold neutral or away.
Michigan State, (5), W
Michigan (12), W
Kansas (4), W
At Ohio State (13), L
Colorado State (54), W
Washington (58), W
At Temple (8), L
Virginia (30), W
Florida State (35), L
At North Carolina (6), W
At Florida State (35), W
That’s 8-3 with only 3 of the games coming at home.
Now, let’s look at Kentucky:
Kansas, (4), W
North Carolina (6), W
At Indiana (18), L
Louisville (17), W
Alabama (32), W
Florida (27), W
At Vanderbilt (29), W
At Mississippi State (55), W
Vanderbilt (29), W
Like Duke, they have 8 wins and have only lost once, but played 5 of the 9 at home.
Summary:
Duke has played fewer games in a friendly environment, played considerably more difficult opponents and also played those opponents in a more difficult environment than Kentucky. Amongst the highest ranked teams in my rankings, Kentucky has had one of the weakest schedules, when you consider both the environment and the quality of it’s competition.
You can certainly say that Kentucky is more visually dominating than Duke and point to it’s superior record, but bear in mind that they have had a far easier road than Duke has.
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