This week there is a new #1 in these rankings - a 4 loss team. The result puzzled me, so I figured there was some explaining in order.
Kansas is the team that the rankings have listed as #1. There are still two undefeated teams from elite conferences (Syracuse, Arizona) remaining. So, how does the computer justify this result?
Let's look at the following two key factors:
1) Record away from home
2) Record vs. elite competition
Kansas is 6-3 away from their building, while Arizona and Syracuse are 6-0. Kudos to Kansas for having played over 1/2 their games away from the friendly confines of Allen Fieldhouse; but they have lost 1/3 of those games.
What about how every one has fared against elite competition?
Let's focus on games against tournament worthy teams. You'll observe when we get to the Bubble Watch that I have listed in the Top 53 as the ones I expect to get a Tournament Bid. For these purposes, let's look at how teams have fared against this class of competition.
Kansas has played 11 games so far against such teams; the most of any team. How many more? The next highest count is 7 which 5 teams have achieved (Marquette, Florida State, Virginia, Iowa State & Wisconsin). Syracuse and Arizona have played 6 and 5 such games respectively.
Kansas has won 7 games against Tournament Caliber competition; the most against the country thus far.
What's more impressive is where those 11 games (and 7 wins) have taken place.
Win vs Duke at neutral location by 11
Loss to Villanova at neutral location by 4
Loss at Colorado by 3
Loss at Florida by 6
Win vs New Mexico at neutral location by 17
Win vs Toledo at home by 10
Loss to San Diego State at home by 4
Win at Oklahoma by 7
Win vs Kansas State at home by 26
Win at Iowa State by 7
Win vs Oklahoma State at home by 2
A couple things jump out.
1) All the losses were close and 3 were outside of Allen Fieldhouse.
2) Kansas is 4-3 against Tournament Grade competition outside of Allen Fieldhouse, including two road wins.
Syracuse is 3-0 vs. Tournament Grade competition outside of the Carrier Dome with zero road wins.
Arizona is 4-0 against Tournament Grade competition away from Tucson with 3 road wins.
There's one other factor driving the ranking and I'll call this Cupcake Wins - i.e. wins vs. non Top 100 teams.
Syracuse has 8 such wins.
Kansas has 4 wins.
Arizona has 10 such wins.
In totality, the reason that the rankings have Kansas #1 ahead of two undefeated teams is as follows:
-Kansas has played more games away from home.
-Kansas has defeated more elite competition.
-Kansas has played fewer "gimmes".
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