CBB Rankings 1-12-14

This week, I'm pleased to announce my first Bubble Watch of the season.

But before we get there - ESPN's Men's College Basketball Home Page currently says that Iowa "learned how to win" in it's win over Ohio State.  Oftentimes sportswriters have a tendency to fall into narratives - essentially spinning the outcome to fit a given mold, and I believe this is a classic case of this.

Let's look at Iowa's losses this year:

Vs. Villanova (#2 in my rankings) in a neutral location - a 5 point loss in Overtime.
At Iowa State (#5 in my rankings) - a 3 point loss.
At Wisconsin (#1 in my rankings) - a 4 point loss.

Aside from that, Iowa had 13 wins coming into the day.  They were ranked #20 nationally and #24 in my rankings. 

So, we have two possibilities:
1)  Iowa is a very good team that suffered close losses against elite competition - the vast majority of Division I teams would also be 0-3 in such circumstances.  Iowa is in actuality a top 20 team who simply wasn't able to beat the extraordinarily difficult slate of games listed above, or Iowa was simply unlucky in their previously mentioned games.
2)  Iowa "didn't know how to win" until their win at Ohio State today in Columbus.  After "learning how to win", we can expect that Iowa  will not lose another close game this year.

Which really seems more plausible?

Onto the bubble watch.

On the Bubble and In (in order of rank)

Missouri

Xavier

Indiana State

Arkansas

Connecticut

Minnesota

Georgetown

Stanford

Tennessee

Illinois

On the Bubble and Out

Clemson
Saint Mary's
Arizona State
Toledo
Notre Dame
Texas
Utah
St. Bonaventure
Indiana
Ohio

It is assumed that New Mexico State, UC Santa Barbara and Stephen F Austin would receive automatic bids.

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Wisconsin	6.39
2	Villanova	5.75
3	Arizona	5.75
4	Syracuse	5.34
5	Iowa State	5.27
6	Kansas	5.20
7	Oklahoma State	4.87
8	Michigan State	4.80
9	Massachusetts	4.53
10	Florida	4.39
11	Wichita State	4.07
12	San Diego State	4.00
13	Creighton	3.90
14	Kentucky	3.84
15	Memphis	3.81
16	Baylor	3.76
17	Oregon	3.52
18	Cincinnati	3.50
19	Iowa	3.48
20	Colorado	3.44
21	Ohio State	3.40
22	Pittsburgh	3.24
23	Virginia	3.04
24	Louisville	3.02
25	Florida State	2.84
26	UCLA	2.77
27	Gonzaga	2.73
28	Michigan	2.72
29	Saint Louis	2.67
30	North Carolina	2.62
31	California	2.45
32	Duke	2.28
33	Harvard	2.25
34	New Mexico	2.25
35	Oklahoma	2.24
36	Kansas State	2.24
37	Green Bay	2.20
38	George Washington	2.19
39	Dayton	2.15
40	Southern Methodist	2.05
41	Virginia Commonwealth	2.05
42	Louisiana Tech	2.03
43	Southern Miss	1.95
44	Missouri	1.94
45	Xavier	1.92
46	Indiana State	1.83
47	Arkansas	1.82
48	Connecticut	1.82
49	Minnesota	1.76
50	Georgetown	1.74
51	Stanford	1.67
52	Tennessee	1.56
53	Illinois	1.54
54	Clemson	1.50
55	Saint Mary's	1.46
56	Arizona State	1.44
57	New Mexico State	1.39
58	Toledo	1.36
59	UC-Santa Barbara	1.21
60	Notre Dame	1.18
61	Texas	1.17
62	Utah	1.15
63	St. Bonaventure	1.13
64	Indiana	1.13
65	Stephen F. Austin	1.12
66	Ohio	1.10
67	Northern Colorado	1.05
68	LSU	0.96
69	Boise State	0.95
70	Brigham Young	0.92
71	Wake Forest	0.88
72	Marquette	0.87
73	Providence	0.85
74	Northern Iowa	0.83
75	North Dakota State	0.81
76	Purdue	0.81
77	Incarnate Word	0.76
78	Georgia Tech	0.72
79	Butler	0.66
80	St. Joseph's (PA)	0.63
81	NC State	0.63
82	Maryland	0.52
83	Princeton	0.52
84	Richmond	0.45
85	Washington	0.39
86	Eastern Michigan	0.38
87	Ole Miss	0.37
88	Western Michigan	0.36
89	Manhattan	0.31
90	St. John's	0.31
91	Drexel	0.27
92	IPFW	0.26
93	Louisiana	0.22
94	West Virginia	0.22
95	La Salle	0.20
96	UAB	0.19
97	Utah State	0.18
98	Pacific	0.17
99	Cleveland State	0.16
100	Texas A&M	0.15
101	Akron	0.11
102	UC Irvine	0.10
103	Santa Clara	0.09
104	Nebraska-Omaha	0.09
105	Mercer	0.01
106	Belmont	-0.02
107	Drake	-0.08
108	Illinois State	-0.11
109	Delaware	-0.12
110	Georgia	-0.21
111	Hawaii	-0.24
112	Georgia State	-0.24
113	Stony Brook	-0.25
114	Towson	-0.26
115	USC	-0.27
116	Wyoming	-0.28
117	Middle Tennessee State	-0.29
118	Columbia	-0.34
119	Mississippi State	-0.41
120	Nebraska	-0.41
121	Vanderbilt	-0.41
122	Iona	-0.41
123	Northwestern	-0.47
124	Buffalo	-0.47
125	Penn State	-0.48
126	Eastern Kentucky	-0.48
127	South Carolina	-0.50
128	Texas Tech	-0.50
129	Missouri State	-0.52
130	Cal Poly	-0.57
131	San Francisco	-0.57
132	DePaul	-0.59
133	Sam Houston State	-0.59
134	Youngstown State	-0.69
135	Charlotte	-0.70
136	Miami (FL)	-0.72
137	Colorado State	-0.73
138	Radford	-0.76
139	North Carolina Central	-0.77
140	Auburn	-0.77
141	Loyola Marymount	-0.85
142	Washington State	-0.89
143	Alabama	-0.94
144	Boston University	-1.10
145	Arkansas State	-1.12
146	UNLV	-1.13
147	Oral Roberts	-1.14
148	Nevada	-1.15
149	TCU	-1.16
150	Western Kentucky	-1.16
151	Portland	-1.17
152	Kent State	-1.17
153	Texas-El Paso	-1.18
154	Rhode Island	-1.22
155	Tulsa	-1.24
156	Oregon State	-1.24
157	Robert Morris	-1.29
158	Morehead State	-1.33
159	Evansville	-1.36
160	Bryant	-1.38
161	Fresno State	-1.41
162	San Diego	-1.42
163	Vermont	-1.47
164	American University	-1.48
165	Pepperdine	-1.49
166	Houston	-1.51
167	Long Beach State	-1.52
168	Weber State	-1.55
169	Utah Valley University	-1.57
170	Milwaukee	-1.61
171	Denver	-1.62
172	South Dakota State	-1.63
173	Quinnipiac	-1.68
174	Seattle	-1.81
175	Canisius	-1.85
176	Rider	-1.86
177	Wright State	-1.87
178	Boston College	-1.90
179	Western Carolina	-1.96
180	Seton Hall	-1.97
181	UCF	-1.97
182	USC Upstate	-1.98
183	Elon	-1.99
184	Oakland	-1.99
185	George Mason	-2.05
186	Yale	-2.08
187	North Florida	-2.20
188	William & Mary	-2.26
189	Northern Illinois	-2.31
190	East Carolina	-2.32
191	Alabama State	-2.36
192	Murray State	-2.36
193	Winthrop	-2.40
194	Brown	-2.42
195	Detroit	-2.43
196	Southern University	-2.46
197	Duquesne	-2.47
198	Old Dominion	-2.49
199	Virginia Military Institute	-2.52
200	Eastern Washington	-2.53
201	Nicholls State	-2.53
202	Texas-Arlington	-2.56
203	Charleston Southern	-2.62
204	St. Francis (NY)	-2.62
205	Virginia Tech	-2.62
206	Holy Cross	-2.64
207	Chattanooga	-2.68
208	Dartmouth	-2.74
209	South Dakota	-2.75
210	Southeast Missouri State	-2.76
211	North Dakota	-2.76
212	Arkansas-Little Rock	-2.77
213	Chicago State	-2.79
214	Florida Gulf Coast	-2.81
215	Cal State Northridge	-2.82
216	South Florida	-2.83
217	Troy	-2.85
218	Wagner	-2.85
219	Davidson	-2.89
220	Tennessee Tech	-2.94
221	McNeese State	-2.96
222	Hampton	-2.98
223	Bowling Green	-3.06
224	Western Illinois	-3.06
225	Siena	-3.08
226	Alabama A&M	-3.24
227	Bradley	-3.26
228	Florida International	-3.27
229	Coastal Carolina	-3.30
230	Wofford	-3.30
231	North Carolina-Asheville	-3.36
232	Rutgers	-3.37
233	Air Force	-3.40
234	College of Charleston	-3.40
235	North Texas	-3.45
236	Bucknell	-3.45
237	Cal State Bakersfield	-3.47
238	Albany	-3.52
239	Valparaiso	-3.52
240	Grand Canyon	-3.55
241	Northern Arizona	-3.61
242	South Alabama	-3.62
243	Fordham	-3.64
244	Louisiana-Monroe	-3.66
245	Miami (OH)	-3.68
246	Loyola (MD)	-3.68
247	East Tennessee State	-3.86
248	Northwestern State	-3.86
249	Lehigh	-3.87
250	Norfolk State	-3.88
251	San Jose State	-3.90
252	Abilene Christian	-3.90
253	Northeastern	-3.93
254	Morgan State	-3.98
255	Colgate	-3.99
256	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-4.00
257	Marshall	-4.00
258	Marist	-4.00
259	Monmouth	-4.06
260	Southeastern Louisiana	-4.07
261	Florida Atlantic	-4.14
262	Montana	-4.14
263	Georgia Southern	-4.17
264	Army	-4.28
265	Missouri-Kansas City	-4.30
266	Mount St. Mary's	-4.37
267	Prairie View A&M	-4.43
268	Florida A&M	-4.48
269	Gardner-Webb	-4.51
270	Liberty	-4.52
271	Texas Southern	-4.54
272	Temple	-4.56
273	Mississippi Valley State	-4.62
274	Central Michigan	-4.69
275	Southern Illinois	-4.75
276	St. Peter's	-4.85
277	New Orleans	-4.85
278	Idaho State	-4.92
279	North Carolina-Greensboro	-4.93
280	Long Island	-4.95
281	North Carolina A&T	-5.11
282	South Carolina State	-5.15
283	Savannah State	-5.16
284	Coppin State	-5.17
285	North Carolina-Wilmington	-5.18
286	Jackson State	-5.21
287	Idaho	-5.22
288	Lipscomb	-5.25
289	Navy	-5.27
290	Montana State	-5.29
291	Jacksonville State	-5.36
292	Delaware State	-5.41
293	Cal State Fullerton	-5.44
294	Jacksonville	-5.44
295	Sacramento State	-5.52
296	Portland State	-5.52
297	Tulane	-5.53
298	James Madison	-5.58
299	New Jersey Tech	-5.61
300	Loyola (Chicago)	-5.79
301	UC Riverside	-5.81
302	Hofstra	-5.81
303	Campbell	-5.85
304	Austin Peay	-5.86
305	Ball State	-5.92
306	Northern Kentucky	-5.93
307	Hartford	-5.96
308	Pennsylvania	-6.01
309	Maryland-Baltimore County	-6.14
310	Eastern Illinois	-6.49
311	Fairleigh Dickinson	-6.54
312	Appalachian State	-6.55
313	Houston Baptist	-6.59
314	Tennessee-Martin	-6.66
315	Samford	-6.68
316	Alcorn State	-6.97
317	Lafayette	-7.12
318	UMass-Lowell	-7.12
319	Fairfield	-7.32
320	High Point	-7.32
321	Central Arkansas	-7.41
322	Furman	-7.54
323	UIC	-7.71
324	Texas State	-7.74
325	Tennessee State	-7.78
326	IUPUI	-7.82
327	UC Davis	-7.85
328	Longwood	-7.86
329	Kennesaw State	-8.01
330	Niagara	-8.09
331	Rice	-8.16
332	SIU Edwardsville	-8.25
333	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-8.28
334	Howard	-8.40
335	St. Francis (PA)	-8.57
336	Maryland-Eastern Shore	-8.60
337	Citadel	-8.66
338	Southern Utah	-8.85
339	Bethune-Cookman	-9.01
340	Texas-San Antonio	-9.11
341	Presbyterian	-9.24
342	Grambling State	-9.24
343	Cornell	-9.72
344	Maine	-9.73
345	Binghamton	-10.02
346	Sacred Heart	-10.16
347	Texas-Pan American	-10.38
348	Central Connecticut State	-10.55
349	Stetson	-11.06
350	Lamar	-11.85
351	New Hampshire	-12.42