In case you missed part 1 of my NBA Preview, here it is.
In this part, we're going to cover the Western Conference, as well as make the prediction on the champion. As always, predictions are based on my simulator - supported by real facts.
The Los Angeles Clippers will win the Pacific Division.
I thought this was a bold prediction until I heard on the B.S. Report that Hollinger has the Lakers projected for 4th in the West. At any rate, this is still a relatively bold prediction given that Vegas still has the Lakers with the best odds to win the West.
We need to address both the Clippers and the Lakers here.
Clippers
A little known fact is that based on pythagorean win projection, the Clippers were actually 3 games better than the Lakers last year. If you project that over an 82 game season, they already have a 5 game lead on the Lakers.
While the Lakers are the ones who made the headlines for their splashy moves, the Clippers made some very solid acquisitions of their own such as....
Jamal Crawford - Crawford brings an instant offense component to the Clippers, although there are significant signs Crawford is slowing down - as evidenced by the fact that his TS % has precipitously declined over the last 3 years, Los Angeles may prove to be his fountain of youth. If he doesn't pan out...
Matt Barnes is actually vastly superior to Crawford at this point in their careers. Barnes is an above average statistical defender who also rebounds competently with a 13% rebounding rate. Although Barnes likely shoots too many 3 pointers (nearly 35% of his fga are 3's) at too low a clip (33%), he still shoots over 50% on 2 point attempts.
The Clippers also acquired some nice veteran leadership in the form of Grant Hill who while aged to be sure, can still provide solid minutes. We can also expect Eric Bledsoe to take a nice leap forward - and if Lamar Odom is anything resembling what he once was, the Clippers should be significantly improved. Chauncey Billups also returns from injury - and this squad only needs 10-15 quality minutes backing up Paul out of the seasoned veteran.
The Clippers did not lose anything of substance that was not replaced and then some. When you look at their total roster, you see a much deeper roster than what was present last year - this depth should help the Clippers deal with injuries (so long as their not to Paul or Griffin) and with the versatility the Clippers have, they should be able to give teams several different looks. This isn't the same roster that got swept by the Spurs last year (although the Spurs are still projected to be superior to the Clippers) and a win total right around 55 seems probable.
The Clippers are projected to be the 5th best team in the league; an improvement upon last year's 11th best mark based on expected wins.
Lakers
Part of the reason that the Lakers are ranked a (relatively) low 7th place overall and 5th in the West is because they have a much worse base to build off of than what might think.
Last year the Lakers finished a shockingly low 13th in pythagorean win totals - so expecting them to climb 6 spots actually does indicate a substantial improvement already. The issue with the Lakers isn't firepower - they have plenty of that and are projected to finish 4th in points per possession - a 6 spot improvement over a year ago, fueled by the addition of Nash and Jamison.
The problem that we have with the Lakers is Defense - the Lakers currently are projected to finish 15th in points allowed per possession. This might seem surprising given the addition of Howard and that Bryant and Metta World Peace were already on the roster last year. However both Bryant and Peace have slipped considerably in defense. Last year the Lakers finished 13th in points allowed per possession, and despite the addition of Howard, a slight decline is projected defensively.
First, any lineups without Howard - no matter who the pairings are - are likely to be weak. The Lakers really only have 3 true bigs who are likely to get playing time - Howard, Gasol and Jordan Hill - neither of the latter two are particularly strong on defense. Next, the Lakers lost the player who according to my defensive ratings numbers, was their best wing defender last year in Matt Barnes. Additionally, while Steve Nash is a significant upgrade at the point guard position, he is a notoriously weak defender and will be a liability against Western point guards like Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and even lesser talents like Jeremy Lin and former teammate Dragic.
Compounding the problem, the addition of Antawn Jamison is a net plus - but again, Jamison is not a particularly strong defensive player and cannot cover either forward spot effectively at this point in his career.
Finally, Bryant and Peace's defensive capabilities are exaggerated at this point. Peace is still an above average defender for his position at this point in his career, but statistics indicate he is more like a 75th percentile quality defender as opposed to a 95th - which is the perception of his defense.
For all purposes, Bryant is a league average defender for his position at this point in his career and part of that can certainly be attributed to role - with as much of the offense as Bryant is asked to carry, it's difficult to maintain a high defensive intensity at his age. And it's certainly possible that he may be able to focus more defenisvely. However, even if Bryant improves defensively due to focus, adding another year to him isn't likely to help. For the Lakers to improve substantially defensively, it will take contribution from an unknown or unproven source to lift them up. On the flip side, any injury will expose their lack of depth - and it is uncertain how Howard will bounce back from back surgery and he is truly the crux of their defense.
If that does not happen, as Grantland's Zach Lowe notes, it's very difficult to enjoy substantial playoff success without a strong defense. The Lakers' raw firepower will give them a chance against anyone, but ultimately it is likely that their defense will be their undoing.
The Clippers' superior depth and better balanced team is a safer bet to win the division - even though the Lakers will be heavily favored.
The Northwest Division will send 4 teams to the playoffs.
Picking OKC and Denver to make the playoffs isn't exactly bold - predicting BOTH Utah and Minnesota to make the playoffs is.
Utah
There's nothing really special that the tool falls in love with about Utah - it sees them as an average unit both offensively and defensively. There's a lot of talent and depth in the front court and the Jazz can certainly hammer people down low and own the boards, but their isn't much shot blocking either and unless Gordon Hayward makes a substantial year three leap, the backcourt is lacking at both ends of the court stocked with Hayward, Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Jamal Tinsley, Earl Watson and Raja Bell. Nothing there that scares you.
What makes the tool fall in love with the Jazz relative to other teams is simply that most of the mid-tier teams will be taking a big step back. Houston? They just gutted their roster. Phoenix? They will likely be taking a substantial step back without Nash. Memphis? Just lost key pieces in O.J. Mayo and Dante Cunningham with little in the way of replacements. Even if you like Dallas enough to pencil them in for a playoff spot (and this projection does), 2 of the top contenders for that 8th spot will be stepping backwards this year and one playoff team (Memphis) will likely be taking a step back. In all likelihood, there will have to be 2 teams who finished behind the Jazz last year who would have to leapfrog them. There is one team that is projected to leapfrog them....
Minnesota
The hand injury that Kevin Love suffered that will keep him sidelined until Mid-December certainly hurts, but in the meantime the T-Wolves have enough depth that they should be OK. There has been enough sleeper buzz around the T-Wolves that rather than play up their strengths, I'll discuss potential weaknesses.
Something that gets lost in the shuffle is that the T-Wolves added defensive stud Greg Steisma to their roster as well as Dante Cunningham, in addition to the more publicized Andrei Kirilenko. That trio should at least be good enough to hold down the fort until Love's return and the T-Wolves also have year 2 of Derrick Williams.
In the backcourt, the T-Wolves added Brandon Roy on the wings and while he's certainly not going to be the player he once was, he can still be a solid contributor to a playoff team. The real issue for the T-Wolves will be surviving until Love AND Rubio get back from injury. Minnesota's not a team with a lot in the backcourt even with Rubio and his injury compounds the problem. The T-Wolves will be thin in the backcourt with weak defenders and as noted, it's tough to play in the West with defensive weakness in the backcourt. Without Love, this is also a weak rebounding team and when weak defensive guard play is combined with poor rebounding, that creates a team that can be lit up pretty easily; Minnesota is projected to be in the bottom 10 defensively.
That said, the T-Wolves should be strong offensively. Cunningham gives nice frontcourt scoring and AK-47 has historically been an efficient offensive weapon. The backcourt, while sub-par overall as previously discussed, is competent offensively and the team has 4 strong 3 point shooters in their rotation combined with willing and capable passers. Minnesota is projected for 9th in offensive efficiency which should be just barely enough to get them to the playoffs. If healthy by playoff time, Minnesota will not be a fun opponent to face and would a healthy Minnesota squad would have a reasonably good chance of advancing to the 2nd round if it were in the East.
Denver will win the Western Conference and topple Miami to become the 2012-2013 NBA Champion
I know - picking a team that couldn't get out of the first round to win the whole thing sounds a bit absurd doesn't it? It also doesn't help that you could argue that the tool has a Nugget bias as it predicted Denver to defeat the Lakers in the first round last year doesn't it?
However, Denver isn't that typical first round fodder; they actually out-scored the Lakers during their 7 game series last year, despite not having homecourt advantage. The Nuggets were simply unlucky as opposed to inferior.
When studying the Nuggets last year, one observes that they were an offensive powerhouse - finishing 1st in total points scored and 3rd in points per possession. Like other teams discussed, they were done in by their defense.
Any discussion of Denver becoming a legit title contender is based on the assumption that A) Their offensive prowess will continue and B) they will improve defensively.
The Nuggets' have swapped out Chris Andersen, Al Harrington and Aaron Affalo for Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer.
Iguodala (AI going forward)
AI represents a substantial improvement for the Nuggets. He is already known throughout the league as an elite defender and the statistics back this up - for his position his defensive rating grades out in the 90th percentile - while infrequently fouling. AI is simply one of the best wing defenders in the league - and also hits the boards hard, with a 9.6% rebounding rate - grading out in about the 85th percentile for his position. His defensive and rebounding prowess are a substantial upgrade over Affalo. AI adds another player to the Nuggets who can create their own shot and AI is a willing passer - his pace adjusted assist rate is 85% that of incumbent point guard Ty Lawson. AI represents a major upgrade for Denver.
Corey Brewer
This is a sneaky good pickup by the Nuggets that hasn't gotten a ton of attention, but is a valuable addition. Like AI, Brewer is a very strong defender - grading out at about the 80th percentile defensively - which is something he is actually known for. Brewer is also more efficient offensively than given credit for - he shoots over 50% on 2 point field goal attempts and has an impressive 9.8% turnover rate (league average is about 14). He is clearly a defensive upgrade over the departed Al Harrington.
Wilson Chandler
Chandler may find minutes tough to come by on this deep squad but his defensive indicators are nearly on par with Brewer and he also offers solid rebounding numbers for a wing player.
What about the loss of the Birdman?
All this talk about the defensive prowess of the Nuggets may bring to mind Chris Andersen, otherwise known as the Bird Man. Andersen's impact will not be noticeable, mainly because he couldn't keep himself on the court last year - he played in just 15% of the team's minutes
Due to the defensive upgrades and the Nuggets' strong rebounding prowess (virtually every major player is an adequate or better rebounder for their position save for Gallinari), the Nuggets project out as a team that will be much harder to score against from the wing positions and one that will be difficult to obtain 2nd chance points against.
The simulator tool projects that the defensive improvements should be enough to vault the Nuggets' defense up to a strong unit. The transactions that the Nuggets made in the offseason should also improve an already powerful offensive machine and this combination is projected to lead Denver to the title over Miami.
Projections (Playoff Teams denoted by *)
Northwest
Denver *
Oklahoma City *
Minnesota *
Utah *
Portland
Southwest
San Antonio *
Dallas *
New Orleans
Memphis
Houston
Pacific
Los Angeles Clippers *
Los Angeles Lakers *
Golden State
Sacramento
Phoenix
WCF: Denver over Oklahoma City
Finals: Denver over Miami
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