I haven't posted in this blog for a while due to events in my personal life such as:
-Buying a house
-Amber coming home from military training
-Traveling for work/personal reasons
-A promotion at work
I figured a season preview based on my basketball simulator was in order.
Today we'll kick off with the Eastern Conference and discuss 4 bold predictions about that conference - all analysis is based solely off the simulator tool with other supporting stats listed.
1. The Milwaukee Bucks will win the Central Division
The East as a whole (starting in the 2 position), and this division in particular, is pretty wide open for a variety of reasons such as:
-Derrick Rose's ACL Tear
-A roster shakeup in Boston
-A predicted regression from the Pacers (more on that later)
If we assume Derrick Rose will miss a substantial portion of the season (over half), that takes the Bulls out of the running for the division title, and the simulator dislikes Indiana. But what does it like about Milwaukee so much, and how does that align with real life?
Last year the Bucks traded Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis and change, and that trade gave the Bucks a nice shot in the arm. Since the trade, the Bucks went 12-11 down the stretch - but more importantly had a point differential of +79 - a point differential of nearly 3.5 PPG. While 23 games is a small sample size, it's the most recent data point that we have about the current roster composition of the Bucks. That point differential will usually result in a team being about the 7th best team in the league. While the simulator tool doesn't think that the Bucks will be quite that good, it does project them to win the division and rates them as the 5th best team in the conference.
2. Tying into #1, the Indiana Pacers will suffer a significant regression and slip out of the playoffs.
This is the projection that the simulator tool makes that I most strongly disagree with and no stats from last year suggest the Pacers will regress; they were in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency and had only subtle roster changes - nothing that should truly move the needle. So why does the tool have the Pacers slipping from 3rd in the conference to outside the playoffs?
The answer comes down to elite talent - or a lack thereof in Indiana's case. I have a system that measures gross production - everything that a player contributes offensively and defensively combined. Last year the highest ranked Pacer was Danny Granger - at 31st. Every single projected playoff team from the East has at LEAST one player rated higher than Granger; most have two. If you're wondering why Hibbert wasn't that player, I go into that below.
Let's look another way and evaluate per minute production - after all - a deep team like the Pacers doesn't have players logging big minutes during the regular season. In that view, Granger and Hibbert are basically equals (if you're wondering why Granger is rated so highly, he is outstanding at avoiding turnovers, rebounds well for his position, is an above average defender for his position, and his poor fg% is somewhat off-set by a very high ft% and a strong 3 point % - in other words, he's not just an inefficient gunner. Granger also led the Pacers in Win Shares last year and Win Shares per 48 minutes - suggesting that my stats align with other mainstream statistics). In that view, there are at 63 players with at least as high of a gross per minute production as Hibbert.
Statistics don't tell the whole story but they do highlight important underlying factors.
Even if the statistics are flat out wrong about the projection and the Pacers manage to win 45-50 games, Indiana may be in NBA no-man land; it's highly unlikely that in a 7 game series they have the firepower to bring down the likes of Miami or Oklahoma City and their depth of talent will likely prevent them from winning the lottery (even this extremely negative projection has them as the #9 spot in the East). The long term prognosis is likely to be one of an also-ran for the Pacers as they have locked in most of their key players to long term contracts.
While I disagree with the simulator, deeper analysis shows that the Pacers lack the elite talent to truly compete for the championship as their roster is presently constructed.
3. The Washington Wizards will make the playoffs.
Before assuming that this blog is projecting to do anything once they get there, settle down. The simulator projects the Wizards to be the worst playoff team and gives them virtually no chance of defeating Miami in a 7 game series.
The reason the Wizards are projected to do so well (relatively speaking) is a formidable inside-out combination of Wall and Nene. There is a considerable amount of negative buzz surrounding John Wall, but remember - if he were still in college we would be getting ready for his senior year. This is a young man with a tremendous amount of talent who has played with a very weak supporting cast in the NBA.
If nothing else, Nene should provide Wall with a stable inside presence who he can trust getting the ball too, and even in limited minutes last year with the Wizards, Nene's gross production was superior to that of Hibbert's.
The addition of Trevor Ariza, while nothing spectacular, helps to shore up the Wizards' porous perimeter defenses and gives them a wing who rebounds well for his position. Ariza is better suited for a role where he is expected to play strong D and rebound and it appears that Washington should be a good fit for him where he can be the 'glue guy'. With the addition of Bradley Beal, Jordan Crawford coming off the bench and Shelvin Mack evolving into a strong backup PG, the Wizards should be well stocked on the wings and backcourt. We expect this team to continue to be relatively weak on the interior but Vessely showed promise in his rookie season and Kevin Seraphin has shot blocking prowess.
Again - this isn't to say that the Wizards are suddenly going to take the league by force - but there is plenty to be optimistic about in Washington (on the basketball court at least) in the forseeable future with a young core of Wall, Vessely, Beal and Mack.
The major things that could go wrong:
-I assumed Vessely would put up the same production as last year, but get starter's minutes - that combination improves the Wizards' offensive firepower. If Vessely turns out to be useless, that would be damaging.
-Bradley Beal has been compared to Ray Allen; I used Ray Allen's rookie season as a proxy for Beal. Allen didn't have an exceptional rookie season and had pedestrian numbers, but if Beal falls well short of that, it would be problematic for the Wizards.
-Nene was involved in an off the court incident this summer. If that is indicative of his behavior in Washington, the Wizards would suffer. If there is any discipline related issues with Hilario that causes him to miss playing time, the projection would move Washington out of the playoffs and put Indiana in.
4. The Atlanta Hawks will be the 2nd best team in the Eastern Conference.
At first glance, this seems like a pretty bold prediction due to the loss of Joe Johnson, but after a deeper dive, it's really not and here's some points on why:
A) Last year the Hawks had the 6th highest pythagorean win total in the NBA.
B) That was without Al Horford.
C) The Hawks re-loaded their talent aside from Horford.
D) As mentioned previously, Chicago won't be the same without Rose.
The simulator tool considers Horford to be superior to Joe Johnson, but even if we assume their equals, that essentially leaves the Hawks where they left off last season, which is EXACTLY where the simulator projects them - 6th overall. Despite losses of other pieces (Kirk Hinrich and Marvin Williams), the Hawks brought in talent that is good enough to replace them in the form of Devin Harris and Lou Williams. There is also reason to be optimistic about Ivan Johnson who should grow into a solid reserve to supplement frontcourt depth and put up solid per minute #'s (14% rebounding rate, over 50% 2 point shooting, strong defense).
Although the tool is optimistic about the Hawks overall, it still projects them to be inferior to Miami, who is projected to win the East.
Eastern Conference forecast (playoff team's with a *)
Atlantic
New York *
Boston *
Philadelphia *
Toronto
Brooklyn
Central
Milwaukee *
Chicago *
Indiana
Cleveland
Detroit
Southeast
Miami *
Atlanta *
Washington *
Orlando
Charlotte
Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Atlanta
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