This version of the Indiana Pacers are a pretty likeable team. They play as a team, have heart, are well coached and are deep. This 'likeability' makes them similar to one of those mid-major college teams that gets under-seeded and makes a run to the elite 8.
The only problem is that this formula doesn't work out that well in the NBA. For proof, let's look at the best player of the prior 25 NBA Champions:
Magic Johnson (twice)
Isiah Thomas (twice)
Michael Jordan (6 times)
Hakeem Olajuwon (twice)
Tim Duncan (4 times)
Shaquille O'Neal (3 times)
Ben Wallace (once - we'll get there)
Dwayne Wade (once)
Kevin Garnett (once)
Kobe Bryant (twice)
Dirk Nowitzki (once)
With the exception of Ben Wallace, all those guys are first ballot, no doubt about it Hall of Famers and the majority have won an MVP award.
In the upcoming Pacers-Heat series, the Heat have one of the guys on that list PLUS the guy who is going to win the MVP this year (Lebron James). Every analytic piece should and will have Miami as heavy favorites; Indy is currently +725 at the only sportsbook I could find a line for (if you bet 100, you will receive an $825 payout should Indy win the series). We're not going to analyze who should be favored, but if Indy makes a good value - looking at arguments of why Indy COULD win.
The Ben Wallace argument
By my measures, Ben Wallace was the most overall productive player on the '04 Pistons championship team (although the difference between him and Chauncey Billups is negligible). Why couldn't the Pacers replicate that?
I have a system that measures the total gross production a player brings to the team - both offensively AND defensively.
Like that Pistons team, this Pacers team doesn't have a true superstar. Unfortunately, that's about where the Ben Wallace argument ends. That Pistons team had 3 players (Ben and Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups) that grade out higher than the top Pacer (Danny Granger). On a per minute basis, those 3 Pistons were all more productive than the two most equally productive Pacers (Granger and Hibbert).
Danny Granger grades out as the player who had the 31st most productive regular season; every team that made the playoffs had at least one player who was more productive than Granger while TEN teams had two or more players grade out with a more productive regular season than Granger.
Bottom line: Detroit's best players had a sizeable advantage over this current Pacer squad, and the Pacers have a severe lack of elite talent.
The depth argument
Ok, so what if Miami definitely has the two best players in this series? The Pacers have more quality basketball players (6 that rate out as starter quality by my measures and 5 top 100 players).
Let's do 3 quick player comparisons: Wade vs Granger, Bosh vs David West and Darren Collison vs Mario Chalmers.
Wade vs Granger:
Wade has a True Shooting Percentage of 56 to Granger's 54, has a pace adjusted assist rate that is over 2.5 times Granger's, is a slightly superior rebounder and a far superior defender based on known statistical measures (although Granger is not a slouch defensively). The only advantage Granger has over Wade is that he has a slightly lower turnover rate (9.3 vs 11.8). Because of the fact that Wade is not only a superior scoring threat, but creates opportunities for his teammates (Granger does not) and makes a much bigger impact defensively, a large edge goes to Wade.
Bosh vs West:
Bosh has a TS % of 55 to West's 53, but West has other offensive advantages like a slightly higher pace adjusted assist rate (80 vs 56 per 100 minutes) and a slightly lower turnover rate (10.6 vs 11.2). Bosh has a slightly higher rebounding % (13.4 vs 12.6), along with slightly better defensive metrics (overall defensive rating of 59 to 56). You could certainly argue that Bosh and West are equals offensively, although Bosh's superior defensive and rebounding numbers give him a slight edge.
Chalmers vs Collison:
Chalmers has a large TS% edge - 58 to Collison's 53. In all fairness, this is driven by the fact that James and Wade create so many open shots for their teammates, but there is no reason to believe this advantage would not exist against the Pacers. Collison is the far superior ball handler - with a better adjusted assist rate (168 to Chalmer's 133) AND a better turnover rate (16.1 to 20.7). However, much of this advantage is dissipated by defensive metrics, where Collison grades out as a below average defender while Chalmers grades out as a strong defender. On gross production, Collison grades out slightly higher but on a per minute basis, the two are virtually equal. You could certainly make the case that Collison is superior player but the gap is less than the small edge Bosh has vs West.
All this and we haven't even discussed the 800 pound elephant in the room - Lebron James - whose gross production this year dwarfed Wade's. To be fair, we did not discuss the benches or Roy Hibbert - but the edge that Lebron gives overwhelms and blankets out the edge from Hibbert - Lebron's gross output is more than double that of Hibbert's. In the playoffs, bench rotations have a tendency to shrink, which also dissipates Indiana's edge and heightens the importance of having elite, hall of fame caliber players.
Conclusion
My system has analyzed 9 years of playoff data; if the Pacers win this series, it would be the largest upset that my system has measured to date. If anything, Miami represents the value play in this series. The Pacers are a nice team and a nice story, but until they acquire an elite talent, they will be an also-ran. On the flip side, if Dwight Howard wants a 'real' supporting cast, where he can clearly be 'the man', Indiana would be an excellent choice and give Howard a legit chance to win a championship.
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