First, while I like the Thunder to win the series, I think that the nearly 3:1 line that Vegas has is a little bit too high of a price to pay for the Thunder. By all metrics, the Thunder are clearly better, but if you played this series 100 times, I think the Lakers would win somewhere in the high 30's to low 40's, as opposed to the 27 % chance Vegas gives them. While my tool isn't the biggest fan in the world of Metta World Peace, it likes him better than the replacements who played in his stead while he served a suspension for giving James Harden an elbow to the back of the head. The simulator tool actually predicted a Laker loss to Denver; but it gave them a 48% win probability, so Los Angeles defeating Denver in 7 wasn't that great of a shock. In retrospect, I wish I would've written about this series before hand, as opposed to doing my analysis after the fact because it would've made for a more interesting piece, but hindsight is 20/20.
Hero Ball and Kobe Bryant
Kobe Bryant is in a serious state of decline. Below are his per minute gross output numbers that my tool generates (higher numbers are better) from 2000 on.
| Kobe Bryant | 2000 | $294,604.51 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2001 | $327,565.70 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2002 | $325,989.59 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2003 | $368,781.61 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2004 | $331,419.80 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2005 | $324,929.19 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2006 | $388,886.23 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2007 | $369,019.34 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2008 | $365,010.04 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2009 | $364,060.61 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2010 | $331,553.92 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2011 | $332,981.94 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2012 | $312,857.91 |
His per minute gross output is still the highest on the Lakers this year, and his overall gross output (not adjusted by minutes) was still 5th amongst all players in the playoffs, but his productivity is nowhere near it's peak. Unfortunately for the Lakers, Bryant hasn't yet come to the realization that he isn't as good as he once was. His shots per minute are higher than at any other point in his career except for 2006. Compounding the problem, his true shooting percentage has declined to the lowest of his illustrious career.
In the simulation, we obviously used the 2012 version of Kobe Bryant. But what if he adjusted his game a bit? As a hypothetical exercise, I used Kobe Bryant circa 2008 - one that shot 12% less, maintained the same assist rate as present, but was a superior rebounder, defender and more efficient shooter?
In the scenario where I used the 2008 Kobe Bryant, the tool projects a Laker win; and that is the recipe for success for Los Angeles. For the Lakers to win, Bryant must expend less of his energies on scoring the ball and act as an offensive facilitator - allowing the Lakers to pound it inside to Gasol/Bynum, let Sessions run the point (which he did very well in the regular season) - pick his spots offensively, help Los Angeles control the boards and help corral Durant. I don't necessarily expect that Bryant would be able to replicate his 2008 self in terms of rebounding, defense or shooting percentage, but if he focused on those things rather than shooting at his present rate, that would substantially improve the Lakers' chances.
Hero Ball and Russell Westbrook
Cue Hubie Brown impersonation.
Now, you're Russell Westbrook, point guard for the Oklahoma City Thunder. You're playing alongside Kevin Durant, the top scorer in this league. He makes 54% of his 2 point field goal attempts, 39% of his 3 point field goal attempts and gets to the foul line 37% of the time on his 2 point attempts, where he shoots 86%. All of these are outstanding figures. You need to get him the basketball every time down the court where he wants the basketball. *Impersonation ended.*
Simple, right? Not really. Durant shoots 15% less per minute than Bryant, which you could partially blame on the fact that Bryant shoots at such an astonishing clip, except for the fact that Russell Westbrook has a HIGHER shot rate than Durant. Westbrook has .54 shots per minute as opposed to .51 for Durant.
In all fairness to Westbrook, he IS the point guard of this team and he does other things to help the team win like distribute the ball, rebound and defend well but in the playoffs, the Thunder would be better served if Westbrook looked to distribute to Harden and Durant - selectively pick his spots against the Lakers and get his teammates more involved.
No comments:
Post a Comment