Playoffs Preview - Boston vs Atlanta

Something I've been developing on and off for the past few years has been an NBA simulator tool. I'm going to roll it out for the two 4-5 series in the first round, and every matchup thereafter this year.

Boston vs Atlanta Boston Profile

This year the big 3 for Boston took on new meaning with Rajon Rondo continuing to be one of the league's premier players, Paul Pierce turning in his finest statistical campaign since their '08 championship run and the venerable Kevin Garnett continuing to defy Father Time. Ray Allen (finally) slipped a bit, but continues to be playing at a level that you would expect of a solid starter - and some of his decline was off-set by Avery Bradley. Among other role players, Brandon Bass, while unspectacular, gave them decent defense and rebounding, while not taking anything off the table, Greg Stiesma - all world defender made a huge impact giving the Celtics much needed rebounding and interior defense to help Garnett carry the workload. Mickael Pietrus and Keyon Dooling are minute fillers; neither gives the Celtics much.

 Boston is inconsistent at best on the offensive end of the court, managing to be the league's 27th most efficient offense, but are impenetrable defensively, ranking 1st in the league in points allowed per possession. The Celtics strengths are defense - on a 100 point scale, only Dooling scores lower than a 48 among C's I expect to see take the court this series, and shooting. The shooting factor may surprise given their offensive efficiency but weak rebounding and turnovers are their undoing. My simulator tool works off of 8 lineups that aggregate to a projected outcome; in 6 of those lineups, Boston is projected to turn the ball over more than the Hawks and are only favored on the boards in 1 of the 8 lineup matchups.


Atlanta Profile

When star center Al Horford went down for the year, most prognosticators expected Atlanta to flounder. However, Josh Smith simply refused to let the ship sink, turning in by far his best season. Don't let his omission from the All-Star game fool you - that was a gross omission. Based on my numbers, Smith had the 3rd most productive regular season among Eastern Conference players and had production equivalant to a 2nd or 3rd All-NBA team caliber player. In a year when most established players regressed (due to the nature of the season), Joe Johnson actually raised his game and his production exceeded his 2011 production. The blossoming of Jeff Teague also helped Atlanta avoid a collapse and has now reached a point where it's OK if he is your 3rd best player (which he is for the Hawks). Additionally, the Hawks have fair depth - no one on their team who I expect to play in this series is simply minutes fillers and all bring something to the table.

Atlanta is similar to Boston - they struggle on the offensive end (16th in offensive efficiency) but are impressive defensively (6th in points allowed per possession). Unfortunately, the gap in the defense is Joe Johnson - the only below average defensive player in the Hawks' rotation. I say unfortunate because during much of the series Johnson will be asked to defend Paul Pierce or Ray Allen - 1st and 3rd respectively in points per 36 minutes on the Celtics. Similar to Boston, the Hawks are a strong shooting team but are weak rebounders. The strength is mitigated by Boston's stifling defense as the Hawks are projected to shoot a lower EFG in every matchup but as previously mentioned dominate the boards. The key to Atlanta's success will be how well they shoot - they should do fine on the boards against a weak rebounding Boston squad and win the turnover edge - they will have to effectively convert the turnovers into easy baskets before the Boston defense can establish itself.

Simulated Outcome

As you might expect, both teams are projected to struggle offensively and both are projected to produce considerably fewer points per possession than their regular season totals. Boston is projected to win in a close defensive struggle with a margin of 3.5 points per 100 possessions; expect this to go 6 or 7 and has an estimated 54% series win probability. In Vegas, the Hawks are nearly 2:1 underdogs - meaning that my simulator suggests that the Hawks are a fairly good value play, particularly with homecourt advantage. 

Tomorrow, I'll preview Memphis and the Clippers.