Of the 8 first round matchups in this year's NBA Playoffs, I'm most excited to watch this one (albeit, partially through DVR) because of the following:
1) Memphis and the Clippers present a stark contrast in styles. Memphis is a slow-down, defensive oriented club while the Clippers rely on the high flying theatrics of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.
2) Memphis and the Clippers have two entirely different team compositions. Memphis did not have a single player who registered as an all-star in my system, but they have 3 guys who are top 30ish players (if Randolph were healthy, he would fall in this category as well) and they have a nice core group of 8 guys who you can feel OK or better about playing in the playoffs. The Clippers have the runner up for MVP in my book (Chris Paul) and someone who is in between deserving an All NBA spot and being an all-star (Blake Griffin, slightly overrated).
3) Memphis and the Clippers are both good and should give us the most competitive first round series. So with that, let's dive in.
Memphis Profile
The Grizzlies are almost a throw back team of sorts in the Bad Boy Pistons mold. They beat you up, are physical with you on the boards (3rd in offensive rebound %), turn the game into a sort of slow grind where they rarely blow you out (19th on offensive efficiency), but the converse is also true (7th in defensive efficiency). They don't really have an elite scorer (although when you watch Rudy Gay, you feel like he has the potential to be one) but they do manage to generate just enough points that their defense is usually good enough.
Marc Gasol, Gay and Conley are the aforementioned top 30ish players - with both Conley and Gasol taking major steps forward this year. OJ Mayo is a solid starter, who because of his combo guard capabilities (and the fact that the Grizzlies lack another point guard besides Conley), is best suited for a 6th man role. Defensive specialist Tony Allen also registers as a solid starter. Speights and Dante Cunningham are very solid playoff worthy role players and Zach Randolph was a dominant force in the playoffs last year but was limited by injuries this year.
Memphis should expect to struggle mightily offensively. The Clippers are just average defensively, but do manage to force a considerable amount of turnovers, which combined with the fact that the Clippers, like the Grizzlies are strong on the boards, will limit Memphis' shot attempts. And Memphis does not shoot well - just 3 of the 8 simulated lineups are projected to exceed an EFG of 45%, with none hitting the 47% mark. The saving grace for Memphis offensively is the fact that in every scenario, they are expected to get to the foul line more than the Clippers. Unfortunately, relying so heavily on the foul line for your offense has the drawback of you are putting a substantial portion of your offense in the officials' hands. Although Memphis is a physical team, if the refs swallow their whistles, their offensive efficiency will go from bad to worse.
Los Angeles Profile
This year, the Clippers became one of the most exciting teams to watch with the addition of Chris Paul, earning the nickname 'Lob City' because of Paul's alleyoops to Griffin and center DeAndre Jordan.
The Clippers excel in virtually every offensive facet - 4th in overall points per possession, 3rd in turnovers per possession, 4th in offensive rebounding %, 7th in EFG - the only thing they don't do well is get to the line (19th). Defenisvely the team gives mixed results - they have excellent defenders (Paul, Jordan, Eric Bledsoe, Kenyon Martin) but weaker defenders as well (Griffin, Mo Williams, Foye, Butler).
Paul and Griffin get enough accolades - the other Clippers need analyzed as well, but the Clippers lack a weak supporting cast behind Paul and Griffin. No other Clipper registers as having one of the 100 best regular seasons - that's not to say that they don't have solid role players - Williams, Foye, Butler and Jordan all gave them performances equivalent to a 5th starter/6th man and with more minutes, Kenyon Martin likely would have been in the same boat. But to win a championship, that usually doesn't cut it unless your 2 are Shaq & Kobe.
Like Memphis, the Clippers should expect to struggle offensively as well. Most of their strengths are mitigated by Memphis - Memphis forces the most turnovers in the league and is projected to win the turnover battle. Memphis, like the Clippers, are a strong rebounding team and project to make rebounding a toss-up. The Clippers should still expect to shoot a reasonably high percentage against Memphis - but with the turnover/rebounding factors included, the offensive efficiency plummets and the Clippers do not get to the foul line enough to make up for it.
Prediction
This is a bad matchup for the Clippers; anytime you draw an opponent who mitigates all your strengths, this is a recipe for disaster. Memphis' own offensive struggles should keep the series close and the Clippers do have the two best players in the series. However, a weak supporting cast and Memphis being able to slow Griffin down with strong front court depth will likely be the Clippers undoing. Memphis has a 62% expected win probability, which is in-line with how Vegas has priced the series. Expect the Grizzlies to win in 6 or 7.
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