When I think about the best team I have ever seen fail to win a college basketball championship, three contenders come to mind:
1) 1990-1991 UNLV Runnin Rebels. This squad featured 5 future NBA players, 3 of whom would go on to play major minutes on legitimate title contenders. UNLV was the defending champion, and cruised through the regular season undefeated.
2) 2009-2010 Kentucky Wildcats. This squad featured no less than 8 future NBA players and entered the NCAA Tournament 35-2. This was arguably the most talented team I've ever seen. However, most of the players were young and inexperienced - that combined with a lack of outside shooting caused them to fall to West Virginia in the Final 4.
3) 1996-1997 Kentucky Wildcats. This was a defending champion that entered the tournament at 30-4 and featured 7 NBA Players. They would fall to Arizona in the National Championship.
Saturday night, Louisville faces Kentucky and tries to add them to this list as a 5:1 underdog.
Below is a blueprint for how I would attack Kentucky.
By no means is this blueprint a guarantee that Louisville will win if executed correctly - Kentucky is a superior team - but I do believe it gives the Cardinals their best shot at pulling off the upset.
Louisville on offense
Louisville is at it's best when the defense is generating offense (and has been ever since I have been a fan). The idea is this - the press wears on opposing guards and fatigues them, once in the frontcourt, the defense locks up and allows only poor percentage shots, forces a miss or a turnover, the offense gets in transition and scores with an advantageous situation, the defense gets in a press and the situation snowballs into a game-breaking Louisville run that demoralizes the opponent. Most of the time, this is effective.
For most of the season, freshman point guard Marquis Teague was perceived to be the achilles heal of Kentucky - not that he's not a talented player - but because he is inexperienced and hasn't yet how to learn to play the game. He's certainly improved as the season has gone on but he is still a freshman and is Kentucky's only true point guard.
Louisville must fuel it's offense with defense - pressing at every opportunity - off every make (and there may not be many) but also off misses - it must be the aim of Louisville to drain Teague through a war of attrition and cut Kentucky off at the legs. Off every Kentucky miss, if possible, Louisville must attack in transition as they were far more effective offensively in transition than in the halfcourt game, via Synergy Sports. This will require Dieng and Behanan to quickly find and identify Siva and/or Russ Smith off every Kentucky miss to trigger the offense, but also run the court quickly (something both do very well for big men).
Doing this will up the tempo of the game, which is an environment in which the Cardinals excel - they are 9-1 on the season when the total breaks 140 and 21-8 when it does not. Although Kentucky's score would likely rise as well through the increased possession, the Louisville defense ideally should keep Kentucky's points per possession low and artificially raise Louisville's.
When transition is not available, 3 point shots will be Louisville's downfall should they attempt them. Louisville shoots a poor 32% from 3 point land, and Kentucky will likely beg them to shoot the 3 - this would be a mistake. Indiana and Vanderbilt both won the game at the foul line - with Vanderbilt nearly doubling Kentucky in free throw attempts and Indiana limiting Davis to 24 minutes due to foul trouble. Siva and Russ Smith must be aggressive in penetrating, and patient enough to pound it down low to freshman Chane Behanan on the blocks. Behanan has been in double figures every game throughout the tournament and has shot 23-34 throughout the tournament. He must receive the ball on every possession that turns into a halfcourt offense - that could allow penetration on the other side of the lane by Siva and Smith. Only if Behanan has such success that Kentucky decides to double him, might 3 point shooting be acceptable. A blueprint will ask alot of Dieng, but if Dieng can hit a couple shots from the high post/either elbow, that might de-clog the lane a bit; proper floor spacing from Kuric/Chris Smith to at least pose the threat of a 3 point shot would also help de-clog the lane. That seems like a stretch, but don't forget that during the big Louisville run against Michigan State, Dieng did manage to make a 3 pointer.
Louisville on Defense
The best argument you can make for Louisville pulling off the upset is that their strength - defense - trumps anyone else's strength. As mentioned previously, Louisville's defense will have to fuel the offense and speeding up the game is recommended.
Obviously, Louisville needs to keep doing what their doing but a few principles are recommended:
-A zone or at least the hybrid zone that Pitino frequently utilizes would be ideal for keeping Dieng out of foul trouble and giving Kentucky the 3 pointer. If Dieng gets into foul trouble, although everyone on Louisville is at least an above average defender, the center may soften and Davis/Kidd-Gilchrist may hammer the Cardinals in the paint. That does run the risk of Darius Miller, Lamb or Wiltjer lighting the Cardinals up from the perimeter, but the hybrid zone might keep a man on the 3 point threat, while applying zone principles elsewhere. To pull this off is going to require some luck, and I'd rather roll the dice with Kentucky launching 3 pointers than Kidd-Ghilchrist/Davis/Jones hammering me inside. In it's 2 losses, Kentucky was 8-35 from the 3 point line.
-It's worth re-stating - press at every opportunity - scores for certain, out of timeouts and even close misses - if the game turns into a rock fight, the risk of the offense stagnating in the halfcourt is significant and a 64-57 defeat becomes likely.
-Keep Louisville wing players fresh - sub early and often. Intense defensive pressure is going to be key to keeping Kentucky's score down. Since the first principle relies on giving Kentucky 3 pointers, it's obviously worth mentioning that the 3 pointers launched must still be contested, and penetration against the zone not be allowed. This means that freshman Wayne Blackshear may be called upon to keep Siva/both Smiths/Kuric/Blackshear all fresh so that they can play defense at high intensity. If this means Louisville has to buy minutes with Winston Justice or Zach Price, so be it - the outer integrity of the zone (when used) must be maintained at all costs and players must be fresh enough to press at every opportunity.
Good luck to the Cardinals on Saturday.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Final 2012 CBB Rankings
1 Syracuse 6.27
2 Kentucky 5.75
3 Kansas 5.18
4 Michigan State 4.89
5 Duke 4.89
6 Missouri 4.73
7 North Carolina 4.68
8 Ohio State 4.64
9 Baylor 4.45
10 Marquette 4.26
11 Temple 3.93
12 Louisville 3.92
13 Michigan 3.74
14 Georgetown 3.73
15 Creighton 3.71
16 Wisconsin 3.64
17 Indiana 3.60
18 Vanderbilt 3.52
19 Murray State 3.40
20 Memphis 3.39
21 Wichita State 3.39
22 New Mexico 3.29
23 San Diego State 3.19
24 Florida State 3.11
25 Gonzaga 3.04
26 UNLV 2.95
27 Saint Mary's 2.94
28 Southern Miss 2.90
29 Cincinnati 2.87
30 Saint Louis 2.75
31 Alabama 2.73
32 Kansas State 2.66
33 Florida 2.63
34 Harvard 2.61
35 Notre Dame 2.60
36 Virginia Commonwealth 2.50
37 Virginia 2.43
38 Connecticut 2.34
39 West Virginia 2.32
40 Xavier 2.32
41 Drexel 2.19
42 Purdue 2.16
43 Brigham Young 2.16
44 Iowa State 2.02
45 Iona 2.02
46 Colorado State 1.98
47 California 1.97
48 Seton Hall 1.97
49 Mississippi State 1.85
50 St. Bonaventure 1.76
51 Ohio 1.72
52 Oral Roberts 1.72
53 Ole Miss 1.71
54 Long Beach State 1.65
55 Tennessee 1.64
56 Marshall 1.64
57 Oregon 1.60
58 Texas 1.59
59 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.57
60 Massachusetts 1.57
61 Colorado 1.57
62 Northwestern 1.53
63 Belmont 1.49
64 Arizona 1.47
65 Dayton 1.42
66 South Florida 1.41
67 UCF 1.39
68 Miami (FL) 1.39
69 Nevada 1.38
70 Akron 1.36
71 Lehigh 1.34
72 Washington 1.29
73 Middle Tennessee State 1.29
74 Wagner 1.21
75 Illinois 1.19
76 NC State 1.19
77 Montana 1.18
78 Minnesota 1.16
79 South Dakota State 1.15
80 Weber State 1.15
81 LSU 1.15
82 Davidson 1.13
83 Cleveland State 1.08
84 Pittsburgh 1.07
85 La Salle 1.05
86 Buffalo 1.05
87 New Mexico State 1.04
88 Stanford 1.02
89 Northern Iowa 0.99
90 Loyola (MD) 0.94
91 Wyoming 0.93
92 Bucknell 0.91
93 Princeton 0.86
94 Robert Morris 0.82
95 Pennsylvania 0.76
96 Iowa 0.74
97 Denver 0.67
98 Long Island 0.66
99 UCLA 0.63
100 George Mason 0.62
101 Georgia 0.51
102 Yale 0.50
103 Texas-Arlington 0.50
104 Missouri State 0.47
105 Old Dominion 0.47
106 TCU 0.46
107 Arkansas 0.44
108 Richmond 0.44
109 Duquesne 0.35
110 Maryland 0.34
111 Auburn 0.33
112 Butler 0.31
113 Kent State 0.31
114 Oregon State 0.31
115 Providence 0.26
116 Valparaiso 0.25
117 Drake 0.24
118 Rutgers 0.22
119 Illinois State 0.15
120 Detroit 0.13
121 Oklahoma State 0.11
122 Indiana State 0.11
123 UAB 0.10
124 Loyola Marymount 0.06
125 UC-Santa Barbara 0.05
126 Mississippi Valley State 0.04
127 Fairfield 0.04
128 North Carolina-Asheville -0.08
129 San Francisco -0.09
130 Milwaukee -0.11
131 American University -0.12
132 Penn State -0.15
133 Nebraska -0.17
134 Oklahoma -0.17
135 Villanova -0.21
136 Lamar -0.22
137 Manhattan -0.24
138 Charlotte -0.25
139 Mercer -0.28
140 Virginia Tech -0.30
141 Georgia State -0.33
142 St. John's -0.33
143 Stony Brook -0.34
144 Tennessee State -0.34
145 Evansville -0.36
146 Vermont -0.37
147 Clemson -0.37
148 Tulsa -0.44
149 Norfolk State -0.45
150 Green Bay -0.53
151 Delaware -0.54
152 Air Force -0.57
153 Boise State -0.61
154 USC Upstate -0.66
155 Texas A&M -0.67
156 DePaul -0.69
157 Savannah State -0.71
158 Cal State Fullerton -0.82
159 Oakland -0.85
160 Bowling Green -0.93
161 North Florida -0.97
162 Cornell -0.98
163 College of Charleston -0.99
164 Washington State -1.01
165 Utah State -1.05
166 Rice -1.09
167 Idaho -1.12
168 Louisiana Tech -1.13
169 Holy Cross -1.18
170 South Alabama -1.18
171 Tennessee Tech -1.24
172 Albany -1.24
173 Texas-El Paso -1.27
174 Youngstown State -1.30
175 East Carolina -1.31
176 Morehead State -1.32
177 Wake Forest -1.33
178 Charleston Southern -1.39
179 Louisiana -1.40
180 Quinnipiac -1.41
181 Utah Valley University -1.49
182 East Tennessee State -1.49
183 Western Illinois -1.50
184 Northeastern -1.52
185 North Texas -1.56
186 Florida Gulf Coast -1.58
187 Portland State -1.59
188 Houston -1.65
189 North Dakota State -1.66
190 Texas Southern -1.66
191 Columbia -1.70
192 George Washington -1.71
193 Boston University -1.74
194 Wofford -1.74
195 McNeese State -1.76
196 Wright State -1.77
197 Georgia Tech -1.78
198 South Carolina -1.80
199 Niagara -1.80
200 North Dakota -1.83
201 Eastern Washington -1.86
202 Hawaii -1.86
203 Fordham -1.87
204 Stephen F. Austin -1.88
205 Tulane -1.94
206 Marist -1.95
207 Western Michigan -2.01
208 Cal State Bakersfield -2.01
209 Georgia Southern -2.01
210 Lafayette -2.03
211 Central Connecticut State -2.05
212 Bethune-Cookman -2.07
213 Arkansas State -2.16
214 Cal Poly -2.16
215 Texas Tech -2.19
216 Northwestern State -2.20
217 St. Francis (NY) -2.29
218 Rider -2.31
219 Lipscomb -2.32
220 Fresno State -2.33
221 Virginia Military Institute -2.34
222 Elon -2.36
223 San Diego -2.36
224 Campbell -2.36
225 Eastern Kentucky -2.40
226 Arkansas-Little Rock -2.40
227 Southern Utah -2.40
228 Austin Peay -2.41
229 Siena -2.42
230 Monmouth -2.45
231 North Carolina Central -2.47
232 Boston College -2.49
233 Coastal Carolina -2.50
234 Western Carolina -2.52
235 Southern Methodist -2.53
236 Western Kentucky -2.54
237 IUPUI -2.56
238 Texas-San Antonio -2.63
239 Eastern Michigan -2.71
240 Southern University -2.72
241 Rhode Island -2.85
242 Delaware State -2.85
243 Portland -2.86
244 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.87
245 Jacksonville State -2.87
246 Ball State -2.89
247 Furman -2.89
248 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.89
249 Florida Atlantic -2.94
250 Southern Illinois -2.98
251 Sacred Heart -2.99
252 James Madison -3.00
253 Toledo -3.05
254 Arizona State -3.06
255 IPFW -3.10
256 Southeast Missouri State -3.13
257 Coppin State -3.24
258 UC Riverside -3.31
259 Hofstra -3.32
260 Bradley -3.42
261 Miami (OH) -3.44
262 UC Irvine -3.45
263 Utah -3.48
264 Pepperdine -3.50
265 USC -3.51
266 Appalachian State -3.65
267 Seattle -3.66
268 Stetson -3.70
269 Army -3.71
270 Prairie View A&M -3.78
271 Troy -3.83
272 Central Michigan -3.84
273 Presbyterian -3.84
274 Jacksonville -3.87
275 High Point -3.90
276 New Jersey Tech -3.91
277 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.91
278 Sam Houston State -4.04
279 Northern Colorado -4.06
280 Montana State -4.06
281 Gardner-Webb -4.07
282 San Jose State -4.10
283 Santa Clara -4.11
284 Alabama State -4.13
285 North Carolina A&T -4.17
286 Southeastern Louisiana -4.19
287 Texas State -4.20
288 UIC -4.23
289 Howard -4.24
290 Pacific -4.32
291 Maine -4.34
292 Idaho State -4.35
293 New Hampshire -4.40
294 Winthrop -4.41
295 Texas-Pan American -4.44
296 Loyola (Chicago) -4.45
297 Eastern Illinois -4.48
298 Chattanooga -4.55
299 South Dakota -4.63
300 Nicholls State -4.67
301 Liberty -4.67
302 Missouri-Kansas City -4.77
303 Brown -4.88
304 Colgate -4.89
305 Morgan State -4.92
306 Mount St. Mary's -4.94
307 St. Peter's -4.95
308 Florida International -5.01
309 Hampton -5.11
310 Longwood -5.18
311 Samford -5.21
312 SIU Edwardsville -5.23
313 William & Mary -5.26
314 Houston Baptist -5.42
315 Alcorn State -5.45
316 Dartmouth -5.51
317 Hartford -5.53
318 Jackson State -5.58
319 St. Francis (PA) -5.60
320 Florida A&M -5.68
321 Sacramento State -5.72
322 Maryland-Eastern Shore -5.78
323 Central Arkansas -5.82
324 Alabama A&M -6.06
325 Towson -6.13
326 Cal State Northridge -6.15
327 Canisius -6.37
328 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -6.52
329 Kennesaw State -6.56
330 Citadel -6.93
331 UC Davis -7.02
332 Northern Illinois -7.09
333 Northern Arizona -7.18
334 Louisiana-Monroe -7.24
335 Radford -7.34
336 Navy -7.39
337 Tennessee-Martin -7.42
338 Chicago State -7.42
339 Bryant -7.61
340 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.66
341 South Carolina State -7.72
342 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.82
343 Grambling State -7.89
344 Binghamton -9.45
2 Kentucky 5.75
3 Kansas 5.18
4 Michigan State 4.89
5 Duke 4.89
6 Missouri 4.73
7 North Carolina 4.68
8 Ohio State 4.64
9 Baylor 4.45
10 Marquette 4.26
11 Temple 3.93
12 Louisville 3.92
13 Michigan 3.74
14 Georgetown 3.73
15 Creighton 3.71
16 Wisconsin 3.64
17 Indiana 3.60
18 Vanderbilt 3.52
19 Murray State 3.40
20 Memphis 3.39
21 Wichita State 3.39
22 New Mexico 3.29
23 San Diego State 3.19
24 Florida State 3.11
25 Gonzaga 3.04
26 UNLV 2.95
27 Saint Mary's 2.94
28 Southern Miss 2.90
29 Cincinnati 2.87
30 Saint Louis 2.75
31 Alabama 2.73
32 Kansas State 2.66
33 Florida 2.63
34 Harvard 2.61
35 Notre Dame 2.60
36 Virginia Commonwealth 2.50
37 Virginia 2.43
38 Connecticut 2.34
39 West Virginia 2.32
40 Xavier 2.32
41 Drexel 2.19
42 Purdue 2.16
43 Brigham Young 2.16
44 Iowa State 2.02
45 Iona 2.02
46 Colorado State 1.98
47 California 1.97
48 Seton Hall 1.97
49 Mississippi State 1.85
50 St. Bonaventure 1.76
51 Ohio 1.72
52 Oral Roberts 1.72
53 Ole Miss 1.71
54 Long Beach State 1.65
55 Tennessee 1.64
56 Marshall 1.64
57 Oregon 1.60
58 Texas 1.59
59 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.57
60 Massachusetts 1.57
61 Colorado 1.57
62 Northwestern 1.53
63 Belmont 1.49
64 Arizona 1.47
65 Dayton 1.42
66 South Florida 1.41
67 UCF 1.39
68 Miami (FL) 1.39
69 Nevada 1.38
70 Akron 1.36
71 Lehigh 1.34
72 Washington 1.29
73 Middle Tennessee State 1.29
74 Wagner 1.21
75 Illinois 1.19
76 NC State 1.19
77 Montana 1.18
78 Minnesota 1.16
79 South Dakota State 1.15
80 Weber State 1.15
81 LSU 1.15
82 Davidson 1.13
83 Cleveland State 1.08
84 Pittsburgh 1.07
85 La Salle 1.05
86 Buffalo 1.05
87 New Mexico State 1.04
88 Stanford 1.02
89 Northern Iowa 0.99
90 Loyola (MD) 0.94
91 Wyoming 0.93
92 Bucknell 0.91
93 Princeton 0.86
94 Robert Morris 0.82
95 Pennsylvania 0.76
96 Iowa 0.74
97 Denver 0.67
98 Long Island 0.66
99 UCLA 0.63
100 George Mason 0.62
101 Georgia 0.51
102 Yale 0.50
103 Texas-Arlington 0.50
104 Missouri State 0.47
105 Old Dominion 0.47
106 TCU 0.46
107 Arkansas 0.44
108 Richmond 0.44
109 Duquesne 0.35
110 Maryland 0.34
111 Auburn 0.33
112 Butler 0.31
113 Kent State 0.31
114 Oregon State 0.31
115 Providence 0.26
116 Valparaiso 0.25
117 Drake 0.24
118 Rutgers 0.22
119 Illinois State 0.15
120 Detroit 0.13
121 Oklahoma State 0.11
122 Indiana State 0.11
123 UAB 0.10
124 Loyola Marymount 0.06
125 UC-Santa Barbara 0.05
126 Mississippi Valley State 0.04
127 Fairfield 0.04
128 North Carolina-Asheville -0.08
129 San Francisco -0.09
130 Milwaukee -0.11
131 American University -0.12
132 Penn State -0.15
133 Nebraska -0.17
134 Oklahoma -0.17
135 Villanova -0.21
136 Lamar -0.22
137 Manhattan -0.24
138 Charlotte -0.25
139 Mercer -0.28
140 Virginia Tech -0.30
141 Georgia State -0.33
142 St. John's -0.33
143 Stony Brook -0.34
144 Tennessee State -0.34
145 Evansville -0.36
146 Vermont -0.37
147 Clemson -0.37
148 Tulsa -0.44
149 Norfolk State -0.45
150 Green Bay -0.53
151 Delaware -0.54
152 Air Force -0.57
153 Boise State -0.61
154 USC Upstate -0.66
155 Texas A&M -0.67
156 DePaul -0.69
157 Savannah State -0.71
158 Cal State Fullerton -0.82
159 Oakland -0.85
160 Bowling Green -0.93
161 North Florida -0.97
162 Cornell -0.98
163 College of Charleston -0.99
164 Washington State -1.01
165 Utah State -1.05
166 Rice -1.09
167 Idaho -1.12
168 Louisiana Tech -1.13
169 Holy Cross -1.18
170 South Alabama -1.18
171 Tennessee Tech -1.24
172 Albany -1.24
173 Texas-El Paso -1.27
174 Youngstown State -1.30
175 East Carolina -1.31
176 Morehead State -1.32
177 Wake Forest -1.33
178 Charleston Southern -1.39
179 Louisiana -1.40
180 Quinnipiac -1.41
181 Utah Valley University -1.49
182 East Tennessee State -1.49
183 Western Illinois -1.50
184 Northeastern -1.52
185 North Texas -1.56
186 Florida Gulf Coast -1.58
187 Portland State -1.59
188 Houston -1.65
189 North Dakota State -1.66
190 Texas Southern -1.66
191 Columbia -1.70
192 George Washington -1.71
193 Boston University -1.74
194 Wofford -1.74
195 McNeese State -1.76
196 Wright State -1.77
197 Georgia Tech -1.78
198 South Carolina -1.80
199 Niagara -1.80
200 North Dakota -1.83
201 Eastern Washington -1.86
202 Hawaii -1.86
203 Fordham -1.87
204 Stephen F. Austin -1.88
205 Tulane -1.94
206 Marist -1.95
207 Western Michigan -2.01
208 Cal State Bakersfield -2.01
209 Georgia Southern -2.01
210 Lafayette -2.03
211 Central Connecticut State -2.05
212 Bethune-Cookman -2.07
213 Arkansas State -2.16
214 Cal Poly -2.16
215 Texas Tech -2.19
216 Northwestern State -2.20
217 St. Francis (NY) -2.29
218 Rider -2.31
219 Lipscomb -2.32
220 Fresno State -2.33
221 Virginia Military Institute -2.34
222 Elon -2.36
223 San Diego -2.36
224 Campbell -2.36
225 Eastern Kentucky -2.40
226 Arkansas-Little Rock -2.40
227 Southern Utah -2.40
228 Austin Peay -2.41
229 Siena -2.42
230 Monmouth -2.45
231 North Carolina Central -2.47
232 Boston College -2.49
233 Coastal Carolina -2.50
234 Western Carolina -2.52
235 Southern Methodist -2.53
236 Western Kentucky -2.54
237 IUPUI -2.56
238 Texas-San Antonio -2.63
239 Eastern Michigan -2.71
240 Southern University -2.72
241 Rhode Island -2.85
242 Delaware State -2.85
243 Portland -2.86
244 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.87
245 Jacksonville State -2.87
246 Ball State -2.89
247 Furman -2.89
248 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.89
249 Florida Atlantic -2.94
250 Southern Illinois -2.98
251 Sacred Heart -2.99
252 James Madison -3.00
253 Toledo -3.05
254 Arizona State -3.06
255 IPFW -3.10
256 Southeast Missouri State -3.13
257 Coppin State -3.24
258 UC Riverside -3.31
259 Hofstra -3.32
260 Bradley -3.42
261 Miami (OH) -3.44
262 UC Irvine -3.45
263 Utah -3.48
264 Pepperdine -3.50
265 USC -3.51
266 Appalachian State -3.65
267 Seattle -3.66
268 Stetson -3.70
269 Army -3.71
270 Prairie View A&M -3.78
271 Troy -3.83
272 Central Michigan -3.84
273 Presbyterian -3.84
274 Jacksonville -3.87
275 High Point -3.90
276 New Jersey Tech -3.91
277 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.91
278 Sam Houston State -4.04
279 Northern Colorado -4.06
280 Montana State -4.06
281 Gardner-Webb -4.07
282 San Jose State -4.10
283 Santa Clara -4.11
284 Alabama State -4.13
285 North Carolina A&T -4.17
286 Southeastern Louisiana -4.19
287 Texas State -4.20
288 UIC -4.23
289 Howard -4.24
290 Pacific -4.32
291 Maine -4.34
292 Idaho State -4.35
293 New Hampshire -4.40
294 Winthrop -4.41
295 Texas-Pan American -4.44
296 Loyola (Chicago) -4.45
297 Eastern Illinois -4.48
298 Chattanooga -4.55
299 South Dakota -4.63
300 Nicholls State -4.67
301 Liberty -4.67
302 Missouri-Kansas City -4.77
303 Brown -4.88
304 Colgate -4.89
305 Morgan State -4.92
306 Mount St. Mary's -4.94
307 St. Peter's -4.95
308 Florida International -5.01
309 Hampton -5.11
310 Longwood -5.18
311 Samford -5.21
312 SIU Edwardsville -5.23
313 William & Mary -5.26
314 Houston Baptist -5.42
315 Alcorn State -5.45
316 Dartmouth -5.51
317 Hartford -5.53
318 Jackson State -5.58
319 St. Francis (PA) -5.60
320 Florida A&M -5.68
321 Sacramento State -5.72
322 Maryland-Eastern Shore -5.78
323 Central Arkansas -5.82
324 Alabama A&M -6.06
325 Towson -6.13
326 Cal State Northridge -6.15
327 Canisius -6.37
328 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -6.52
329 Kennesaw State -6.56
330 Citadel -6.93
331 UC Davis -7.02
332 Northern Illinois -7.09
333 Northern Arizona -7.18
334 Louisiana-Monroe -7.24
335 Radford -7.34
336 Navy -7.39
337 Tennessee-Martin -7.42
338 Chicago State -7.42
339 Bryant -7.61
340 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.66
341 South Carolina State -7.72
342 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.82
343 Grambling State -7.89
344 Binghamton -9.45
Morning 3-11 Bracketology Commentary
Current last 4 in:
Oral Roberts (last in)
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
California
Prior 4 in:
Colorado State
Iona
Iowa State
BYU (Safest)
First 4 out:
Ole Miss (first out)
Tennessee
Marshall
Oregon
Next 4 out:
Texas
St Joe's
Massachusetts
Northwestern (longest shot)
1 seeds:
Syracuse
Kentucky
Kansas
Duke (this won't hold - see below)
Implications of today's games:
ACC: A UNC win would bump them from to the 1 line, taking Duke's spot.
A loss would keep them at a #2 seed.
A Florida State win would push them to a 6 from an 8. A loss would keep them at an #8
SEC: The difference in schedules between Kentucky and Syracuse means that Syracuse will enter
the tournament ranked #1 in my rankings regardless of what happens today. The chasm between Kentucky and everyone else is so wide, that Kentucky will be ranked #2 overall in my final ranking regardless of whether they win or lose today.
I presently have Vanderbilt as a 6 and a win would push them to a 5. A loss to Kentucky would have no impact on their seeding based on my rankings.
A-10: A St. Bonaventure win reduces the bubble count and kicks out mid-major Oral Roberts.
A Xavier win would push them from a 10 to a 9. A loss would drop them from a 9 to an 11.
Big 10:
I presently have both Ohio State and Michigan State as #2 seeds. The winner would take a #1 seed should UNC fall. My lowest ranked #3 seed is presently Louisville and the gap between the two
Big-10 powers is wide enough that neither should fall below Louisville regardless of what happens today.
Other commentary not addressed above:
Alot of bubble talk swirling around NC State. They lack a top 50 RPI win which is very damaging to their resume. Had they won yesterday, my rankings would have had them in the Next 4 Out group.
I have Drexel safely in, but the way the blogosphere is talking I am in the minority here.
Northwestern: I know alot of people who have been rooting for Northwestern, so I wanted to talk about what would have had to happen for my rankings to get them in. Had Northwestern defeated Minnesota and then gone on to beat Michigan, I would have them in the tournament.
Oral Roberts (last in)
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
California
Prior 4 in:
Colorado State
Iona
Iowa State
BYU (Safest)
First 4 out:
Ole Miss (first out)
Tennessee
Marshall
Oregon
Next 4 out:
Texas
St Joe's
Massachusetts
Northwestern (longest shot)
1 seeds:
Syracuse
Kentucky
Kansas
Duke (this won't hold - see below)
Implications of today's games:
ACC: A UNC win would bump them from to the 1 line, taking Duke's spot.
A loss would keep them at a #2 seed.
A Florida State win would push them to a 6 from an 8. A loss would keep them at an #8
SEC: The difference in schedules between Kentucky and Syracuse means that Syracuse will enter
the tournament ranked #1 in my rankings regardless of what happens today. The chasm between Kentucky and everyone else is so wide, that Kentucky will be ranked #2 overall in my final ranking regardless of whether they win or lose today.
I presently have Vanderbilt as a 6 and a win would push them to a 5. A loss to Kentucky would have no impact on their seeding based on my rankings.
A-10: A St. Bonaventure win reduces the bubble count and kicks out mid-major Oral Roberts.
A Xavier win would push them from a 10 to a 9. A loss would drop them from a 9 to an 11.
Big 10:
I presently have both Ohio State and Michigan State as #2 seeds. The winner would take a #1 seed should UNC fall. My lowest ranked #3 seed is presently Louisville and the gap between the two
Big-10 powers is wide enough that neither should fall below Louisville regardless of what happens today.
Other commentary not addressed above:
Alot of bubble talk swirling around NC State. They lack a top 50 RPI win which is very damaging to their resume. Had they won yesterday, my rankings would have had them in the Next 4 Out group.
I have Drexel safely in, but the way the blogosphere is talking I am in the minority here.
Northwestern: I know alot of people who have been rooting for Northwestern, so I wanted to talk about what would have had to happen for my rankings to get them in. Had Northwestern defeated Minnesota and then gone on to beat Michigan, I would have them in the tournament.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Tactical Coaching Decisions - Why isn't Chane Behanan getting more minutes?
This is an unabashed University of Louisville Basketball post. If you haven't watched more than 3 Louisville games this year, this post will probably confuse you. All stats are through the Syracuse game on March 3rd.
Chane Behanan is a 6'6 250 pound freshman McDonald's All-American who plays for Louisville. His freshman season has been a joy to watch. The first time I saw him was at Hinkle Fieldhouse against Butler, in person.
Hinkle Fieldhouse is a unique and special place to watch a college basketball game. It has a very old school feel and if you get there early, you can usually stand court-side while the players warm up. When Behanan walked out, the first thing that crossed my mind is what happens when you're shooting for teams on the playground and you end up on the best player's team - nice. He is incredibly muscular, a spectacular leaper and just looks like a basketball player. In that particular game, he looked very much like a freshman - failing to close out on Butler 3 point shooters, committing silly turnovers and finished with 4 points, 7 rebounds and 4 turnovers on 1 for 5 shooting. His leaping ability and ability to run the court for a man his size impressed me though - those 7 rebounds came in just 17 minutes. His one field goal came in transition, outpacing the Butler players up the court for an easy score. After one of his 3 failed 3 point attempts when I shook my head and did the 'hand to face' move, my Mom tried to reassure me saying 'Pat, remember, he's just a freshman'.
Fast forward 3 months. Louisville is now playing at #2 Syracuse on their senior day. Behanan is not only not starting, but he plays just 17 minutes. In those 17 minutes, he scored 10 points on 5-7 shooting, grabbed 7 rebounds blocked a shot - all without committing a turnover. In my opinion, he played better than any Cardinal. Louisville lost in respectable fashion, falling 59-50 at Syracuse.
I was floored, not by the result, but by the lack of playing time for Behanan. In the highly scientific eye test, you could have made a case that Behanan was our best player - and most importantly, that he had been underutilized while stepping up in big games against tough competition. I held the opinion that against quality competition, barring foul trouble, Behanan should play no fewer than 30 minutes.
So I ran the numbers, specifically looking at games against opponenents who my College Basketball rankings had in the tournament as of last week and here are my findings:
I looked at the 7 players who are still healthy who have played 100 or more minutes in those 14 games.
Here are Behanan's key statistics.
Minutes: 27, 5th on team. I know that 27 mpg sounds like alot, but bear in mind that those 14 games included 4 overtime periods; adding half a game. Remember - Behanan is 5th in minutes in what is effectively a 7 man rotation.
Rebounds: Behanan collected 18.3% of available rebounds, which is good for first on the team, and his offensive rebounding rate is 3rd in the conference in all games.
Points/shooting: Behanan averaged 1.03 points per field goal attempt, good for first on the team. I want to make a point of emphasis here. Behanan averaged 9.2 points per game against all opponents, but in the games against quality competition, he averaged 10.4 - good for 2nd on the team, as opposed to 5th in all games, despite playing fewer minutes than most of his teammates. This suggests that Behanan rises to the occasion against top tier competition and scores more efficiently than his teammates. The only player who scores more against tough competition averages just 3 points per game more, but attempts 7 more field goal attempts per game (Russ Smith).
blocks and steals: Behanan averages .5 blocks and 1.3 steals per 30 minutes against high level competition. The combination of the two is 4th on the team.
Assists: Behanan is a surprising 3rd in assists per 30 minutes among the 7 primary rotation players for Louisville. This is key - not only does Behanan score more efficiently than his teammates against tough competition, he is creating opportunities for his teammates.
Turnover Percentage: : Behanan has an 18.9% turnover rate (3rd worst on team) against quality competition - his primary weakness, as noted from the Butler game. However, that number has fallen considerably as of late. Evidence: Coming into tonight, Behanan has averaged just 1.2 turnovers per game in his last 5.
Points allowed per minute while on court and +/-: I debated whether or not to include these stats as both stats can include a significant number of confounding variables such as quality of teammates and if the opponent was playing it's best players while you were on the court. I figured I might as well, to give a complete profile of Behanan's game.
Behanan is 5th in points per minute allowed while on the court for Louisville. A significant compounding variable is the presence of Gorgui Dieng. Dieng was the Big East's leading shot blocker this season and due to injuries, Louisville played much of the year with only 3 big men (Dieng, Swopshire and Behanan). Of the 3, Swopshire plays the fewest minutes by far. This means that when Swopshire came in, it was usually with Dieng OR Behanan - rarely both. Behanan's points allowed statistic is likely skewed by the presence of the conference's leading shot blocker. Bear in mind, that coming into tonight's game, Louisville was 4th in defensive field goal percentage in the country and 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This suggests that although Behanan is an average defender compared to his teammates, his teammates are truly elite defensively.
Over the course of the season, Behanan's +/- rating was good for 26th in the conference - equivalent to about the 2nd best player on a typical team - meaning Louisville was considerably more effective with Behananan than without him.
Summary:
Behanan's overall statistical profile suggests a highly efficient rebounder, who also scores efficiently and effectively. As we noted, Behanan's primary weakness is turnovers but the trend is heading in a positive direction which indicates he is learning to play without turning it over effectively. Although his defensive metrics are average compared to his teammates, when taken in the context of the team's defensive effectiveness, at worst, he could be described as merely above average, given the strong +/- rating that he exhibits.
When you combine Behanan's offensive rebounding prowess, with his strong passing ability for a big man and Louisville's offensive struggles (just 134th in adjusted offensive efficiency), this only strengthens the case to give Behanan increased playing time. If Louisville is to make a deep tournament run, Behanan must be a significant part.
Sources:
Espn.com
Kenpom.com
Statsheet.com
Chane Behanan is a 6'6 250 pound freshman McDonald's All-American who plays for Louisville. His freshman season has been a joy to watch. The first time I saw him was at Hinkle Fieldhouse against Butler, in person.
Hinkle Fieldhouse is a unique and special place to watch a college basketball game. It has a very old school feel and if you get there early, you can usually stand court-side while the players warm up. When Behanan walked out, the first thing that crossed my mind is what happens when you're shooting for teams on the playground and you end up on the best player's team - nice. He is incredibly muscular, a spectacular leaper and just looks like a basketball player. In that particular game, he looked very much like a freshman - failing to close out on Butler 3 point shooters, committing silly turnovers and finished with 4 points, 7 rebounds and 4 turnovers on 1 for 5 shooting. His leaping ability and ability to run the court for a man his size impressed me though - those 7 rebounds came in just 17 minutes. His one field goal came in transition, outpacing the Butler players up the court for an easy score. After one of his 3 failed 3 point attempts when I shook my head and did the 'hand to face' move, my Mom tried to reassure me saying 'Pat, remember, he's just a freshman'.
Fast forward 3 months. Louisville is now playing at #2 Syracuse on their senior day. Behanan is not only not starting, but he plays just 17 minutes. In those 17 minutes, he scored 10 points on 5-7 shooting, grabbed 7 rebounds blocked a shot - all without committing a turnover. In my opinion, he played better than any Cardinal. Louisville lost in respectable fashion, falling 59-50 at Syracuse.
I was floored, not by the result, but by the lack of playing time for Behanan. In the highly scientific eye test, you could have made a case that Behanan was our best player - and most importantly, that he had been underutilized while stepping up in big games against tough competition. I held the opinion that against quality competition, barring foul trouble, Behanan should play no fewer than 30 minutes.
So I ran the numbers, specifically looking at games against opponenents who my College Basketball rankings had in the tournament as of last week and here are my findings:
I looked at the 7 players who are still healthy who have played 100 or more minutes in those 14 games.
Here are Behanan's key statistics.
Minutes: 27, 5th on team. I know that 27 mpg sounds like alot, but bear in mind that those 14 games included 4 overtime periods; adding half a game. Remember - Behanan is 5th in minutes in what is effectively a 7 man rotation.
Rebounds: Behanan collected 18.3% of available rebounds, which is good for first on the team, and his offensive rebounding rate is 3rd in the conference in all games.
Points/shooting: Behanan averaged 1.03 points per field goal attempt, good for first on the team. I want to make a point of emphasis here. Behanan averaged 9.2 points per game against all opponents, but in the games against quality competition, he averaged 10.4 - good for 2nd on the team, as opposed to 5th in all games, despite playing fewer minutes than most of his teammates. This suggests that Behanan rises to the occasion against top tier competition and scores more efficiently than his teammates. The only player who scores more against tough competition averages just 3 points per game more, but attempts 7 more field goal attempts per game (Russ Smith).
blocks and steals: Behanan averages .5 blocks and 1.3 steals per 30 minutes against high level competition. The combination of the two is 4th on the team.
Assists: Behanan is a surprising 3rd in assists per 30 minutes among the 7 primary rotation players for Louisville. This is key - not only does Behanan score more efficiently than his teammates against tough competition, he is creating opportunities for his teammates.
Turnover Percentage: : Behanan has an 18.9% turnover rate (3rd worst on team) against quality competition - his primary weakness, as noted from the Butler game. However, that number has fallen considerably as of late. Evidence: Coming into tonight, Behanan has averaged just 1.2 turnovers per game in his last 5.
Points allowed per minute while on court and +/-: I debated whether or not to include these stats as both stats can include a significant number of confounding variables such as quality of teammates and if the opponent was playing it's best players while you were on the court. I figured I might as well, to give a complete profile of Behanan's game.
Behanan is 5th in points per minute allowed while on the court for Louisville. A significant compounding variable is the presence of Gorgui Dieng. Dieng was the Big East's leading shot blocker this season and due to injuries, Louisville played much of the year with only 3 big men (Dieng, Swopshire and Behanan). Of the 3, Swopshire plays the fewest minutes by far. This means that when Swopshire came in, it was usually with Dieng OR Behanan - rarely both. Behanan's points allowed statistic is likely skewed by the presence of the conference's leading shot blocker. Bear in mind, that coming into tonight's game, Louisville was 4th in defensive field goal percentage in the country and 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This suggests that although Behanan is an average defender compared to his teammates, his teammates are truly elite defensively.
Over the course of the season, Behanan's +/- rating was good for 26th in the conference - equivalent to about the 2nd best player on a typical team - meaning Louisville was considerably more effective with Behananan than without him.
Summary:
Behanan's overall statistical profile suggests a highly efficient rebounder, who also scores efficiently and effectively. As we noted, Behanan's primary weakness is turnovers but the trend is heading in a positive direction which indicates he is learning to play without turning it over effectively. Although his defensive metrics are average compared to his teammates, when taken in the context of the team's defensive effectiveness, at worst, he could be described as merely above average, given the strong +/- rating that he exhibits.
When you combine Behanan's offensive rebounding prowess, with his strong passing ability for a big man and Louisville's offensive struggles (just 134th in adjusted offensive efficiency), this only strengthens the case to give Behanan increased playing time. If Louisville is to make a deep tournament run, Behanan must be a significant part.
Sources:
Espn.com
Kenpom.com
Statsheet.com
Sunday, March 4, 2012
3-4 Rankings
Next week will be the last week I post my rankings, for the purposes of determining how accurate it was at picking the teams that would make the tournament.
I will be doing a 'rankings challenge' over the course of the NCAA Tournament, where I make a bracket based solely on the rankings of my ranking, Ken Pom, my friend Trevor Riley of BPISports.com's rankings and the top 7 correlating rankings of the Massey Comparison where my rankings have been posted all year.
As for this week....
Your last 4 in:
St. Joseph's (PA)
Middle Tennessee State
Northwestern
South Florida (Last in)
Next 4 in:
Xavier (safest)
Arizona
Nevada
California
First 4 out (unless they win their conference tournament):
Illinois (first out)
Miami (FL)
Tennessee
Akron
Next 4 out:
Dayton
Long Beach State
Oregon
Texas
Belmont ranked in this section, but they won their conference tournament so it's a moot point.
Top 4 seed commentary:
One should think that Syracuse and Kentucky should have their #1 seeds locked up - if you think the #1 overall seed matters, in my opinion it's Syracuse's to lose.
Kansas should secure theirs, pending a Big 12 Championship victory. If they falter, the door should open for the winner of the Big 10 Tournament, assuming it's either Ohio State or Michigan State.
Assuming that either Duke or North Carolina wins the ACC Championship, they should secure the other #1 seed. Again - if one of these teams falters, that opens the door for Ohio State/Michigan State.
If the ACC should go to someone other than Duke/UNC AND the Big 10 goes to someone other than Ohio State/Michigan State this would open the door for Missouri, Baylor, Marquette or Michigan, which is an unlikely scenario.
And the rest of the rankings:
1 Syracuse 6.010322581
2 Kentucky 5.848225806
3 Duke 5.236194169
4 Kansas 5.161228288
5 North Carolina 5.072096774
6 Ohio State 4.701854839
7 Michigan State 4.424124424
8 Missouri 4.38483871
9 Baylor 4.368251613
10 Marquette 4.347806452
11 Michigan 4.266960028
12 Temple 4.21075
13 Creighton 3.947203463
14 Georgetown 3.87083296
15 Indiana 3.818774482
16 Wisconsin 3.631949509
17 Murray State 3.402822581
18 Gonzaga 3.402053333
19 Wichita State 3.390272953
20 UNLV 3.25869375
21 San Diego State 3.222395833
22 Vanderbilt 3.017903226
23 Louisville 3.014789834
24 Purdue 2.847195015
25 New Mexico 2.821791667
26 Notre Dame 2.806370968
27 Florida State 2.777071429
28 Memphis 2.762446529
29 Virginia 2.755223485
30 Kansas State 2.750333333
31 Alabama 2.677241667
32 West Virginia 2.663179117
33 Southern Miss 2.632315668
34 Saint Mary's 2.631205955
35 Harvard 2.606951923
36 Florida 2.509134897
37 Saint Louis 2.39584375
38 Cincinnati 2.383284457
39 Connecticut 2.2739375
40 Iowa State 2.222715054
41 Virginia Commonwealth 2.186655649
42 Brigham Young 2.158181818
43 Drexel 2.13053125
44 Colorado State 2.059238657
45 Mississippi State 2.033910138
46 Ole Miss 1.988138889
47 Seton Hall 1.941964115
48 Iona 1.931138393
49 Oral Roberts 1.922953125
50 Xavier 1.861659091
51 Arizona 1.856154762
52 Nevada 1.82176
53 California 1.790447205
54 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.783741511
55 Middle Tennessee State 1.757676667
56 Northwestern 1.722361111
57 South Florida 1.613302207
58 Illinois 1.610460152
59 Miami (FL) 1.57450627
60 Tennessee 1.566095947
61 Akron 1.510852535
62 Belmont 1.488165266
63 Dayton 1.428357257
64 Long Beach State 1.423542614
65 Oregon 1.363514205
66 Texas 1.340670628
67 Washington 1.323238095
68 Ohio 1.317949309
69 Minnesota 1.288064516
70 South Dakota State 1.261325
71 NC State 1.25375
72 Wagner 1.212016129
73 UCF 1.146547619
74 Massachusetts 1.140716667
75 Denver 1.119568966
76 Bucknell 1.118203125
77 Wyoming 1.112033333
78 Lehigh 1.11113125
79 Cleveland State 1.075802557
80 Marshall 1.035972222
81 LSU 1.024944193
82 La Salle 1.019295455
83 Northern Iowa 0.988463436
84 Davidson 0.983447205
85 Weber State 0.981502329
86 George Mason 0.936962891
87 Buffalo 0.935692356
88 Pittsburgh 0.933120968
89 New Mexico State 0.929562953
90 St. Bonaventure 0.922082697
91 Loyola (MD) 0.909905303
92 Montana 0.886716642
93 Robert Morris 0.871960227
94 Iowa 0.808850806
95 Stanford 0.776505898
96 Pennsylvania 0.692900319
97 Colorado 0.672939793
98 Kent State 0.625633333
99 Long Island 0.599782609
100 Texas-Arlington 0.580390269
101 Princeton 0.571960554
102 Valparaiso 0.561402699
103 Maryland 0.519991071
104 TCU 0.519456637
105 Yale 0.503419486
106 Arkansas 0.496583954
107 Duquesne 0.475420387
108 Missouri State 0.472167969
109 Old Dominion 0.466671911
110 Georgia 0.426456845
111 UCLA 0.408486352
112 Providence 0.346008065
113 Rutgers 0.332648753
114 Butler 0.314209034
115 Auburn 0.267966667
116 Richmond 0.237613911
117 Drake 0.237078125
118 Oklahoma 0.20575
119 Illinois State 0.196187646
120 Fairfield 0.133091156
121 Indiana State 0.110571754
122 Loyola Marymount 0.063346774
123 Oklahoma State 0.045952494
124 UC-Santa Barbara 0.004259259
125 Nebraska -0.002046146
126 Detroit -0.030482385
127 UAB -0.052321429
128 Penn State -0.06596562
129 Mississippi Valley State -0.072319444
130 Oregon State -0.079008296
131 North Carolina-Asheville -0.079242424
132 San Francisco -0.085123834
133 Virginia Tech -0.0893
134 Milwaukee -0.10605711
135 American University -0.119122434
136 Stony Brook -0.207196736
137 Manhattan -0.244023438
138 Mercer -0.283278237
139 Villanova -0.300625
140 St. John's -0.301379239
141 Georgia State -0.332780032
142 Tennessee State -0.339625
143 Evansville -0.358548387
144 Savannah State -0.374953917
145 Air Force -0.393317308
146 Cal State Fullerton -0.408051108
147 Boise State -0.440741877
148 Charlotte -0.442378979
149 Clemson -0.456837054
150 Bowling Green -0.484803571
151 Lamar -0.526029326
152 Green Bay -0.5297
153 Tulsa -0.530923077
154 Delaware -0.539527502
155 Vermont -0.561019683
156 Norfolk State -0.617580645
157 USC Upstate -0.659472656
158 DePaul -0.705055556
159 Idaho -0.739756944
160 Texas A&M -0.788953243
161 Utah State -0.792548116
162 Oakland -0.799389062
163 Rice -0.923771347
164 North Florida -0.971381836
165 Cornell -0.980669643
166 College of Charleston -0.987166808
167 Washington State -1.0762
168 Utah Valley University -1.10920088
169 Wake Forest -1.137403092
170 Louisiana -1.16869494
171 Holy Cross -1.175970443
172 South Alabama -1.177177235
173 Louisiana Tech -1.19125
174 Albany -1.22790043
175 Tennessee Tech -1.238447938
176 Portland State -1.270603318
177 Youngstown State -1.301540323
178 Morehead State -1.315492424
179 Boston University -1.344741935
180 Charleston Southern -1.392580645
181 North Texas -1.439902603
182 Quinnipiac -1.458104167
183 East Tennessee State -1.494302657
184 Texas-El Paso -1.507490327
185 Northeastern -1.515968081
186 Florida Gulf Coast -1.577710478
187 Houston -1.628657635
188 South Carolina -1.6725
189 Columbia -1.700266667
190 East Carolina -1.734025862
191 Wofford -1.741816169
192 George Washington -1.749195833
193 Hawaii -1.757333333
194 Georgia Tech -1.761297847
195 Wright State -1.773620319
196 Niagara -1.804396218
197 Western Illinois -1.820112732
198 Texas Southern -1.832607843
199 Fordham -1.871200544
200 Eastern Washington -1.940354839
201 Marist -1.948024554
202 North Dakota State -1.968296146
203 Tulane -1.974833333
204 Cal State Bakersfield -2.00947619
205 Georgia Southern -2.00965
206 Stephen F. Austin -2.012550239
207 Lafayette -2.030010339
208 Texas Tech -2.039477273
209 Central Connecticut State -2.048275862
210 McNeese State -2.048334975
211 Texas-San Antonio -2.09514268
212 Northwestern State -2.102927419
213 Siena -2.166697917
214 Cal Poly -2.187855787
215 Western Michigan -2.210335314
216 Arkansas-Little Rock -2.219066667
217 Arkansas State -2.234942118
218 Boston College -2.254103175
219 North Dakota -2.257110837
220 Eastern Michigan -2.2690553
221 San Diego -2.275762443
222 North Carolina Central -2.282083333
223 St. Francis (NY) -2.286366667
224 Fresno State -2.29309337
225 Rider -2.305251771
226 Elon -2.30775
227 Lipscomb -2.315008271
228 Virginia Military Institute -2.338944964
229 Campbell -2.361346507
230 Delaware State -2.383934066
231 Eastern Kentucky -2.395761719
232 Austin Peay -2.414394531
233 Monmouth -2.454082031
234 Bethune-Cookman -2.49593246
235 Coastal Carolina -2.504155502
236 Southern Methodist -2.512074028
237 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.531788668
238 IUPUI -2.559049479
239 Western Carolina -2.606184269
240 Southern University -2.715820683
241 Ball State -2.776791872
242 Rhode Island -2.846241359
243 Portland -2.857442396
244 Jacksonville State -2.874
245 Furman -2.89096875
246 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.892746544
247 Southern Utah -2.91855935
248 Coppin State -2.933261084
249 Florida Atlantic -2.940647927
250 Southern Illinois -2.98497195
251 Sacred Heart -2.987632068
252 James Madison -2.99796875
253 Miami (OH) -3.021178161
254 Western Kentucky -3.048388889
255 UC Riverside -3.051333333
256 IPFW -3.101274721
257 Southeast Missouri State -3.132212702
258 Toledo -3.296633065
259 Hofstra -3.315869318
260 Arizona State -3.403261494
261 Bradley -3.423060268
262 Prairie View A&M -3.461923963
263 Pepperdine -3.497067151
264 USC -3.62295
265 Central Michigan -3.643483333
266 Appalachian State -3.653970223
267 UC Irvine -3.691511962
268 Stetson -3.700008621
269 Army -3.714597222
270 North Carolina A&T -3.739919355
271 Troy -3.827857143
272 Presbyterian -3.844741379
273 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.861419355
274 Alabama State -3.869388889
275 Jacksonville -3.870988636
276 New Jersey Tech -3.891581565
277 High Point -3.899652605
278 Utah -3.908125
279 Sam Houston State -3.952398677
280 Texas-Pan American -4.012111437
281 Northern Colorado -4.056672932
282 Montana State -4.061906694
283 Gardner-Webb -4.06528125
284 Seattle -4.066006993
285 San Jose State -4.067222222
286 Santa Clara -4.105223485
287 Southeastern Louisiana -4.189330629
288 Texas State -4.200234917
289 UIC -4.226863636
290 Pacific -4.317964995
291 Maine -4.336460446
292 Idaho State -4.345904762
293 New Hampshire -4.399839605
294 Winthrop -4.4129375
295 Howard -4.431491379
296 Loyola (Chicago) -4.449225673
297 Eastern Illinois -4.481389452
298 Chattanooga -4.554252232
299 South Dakota -4.631184524
300 Morgan State -4.65316416
301 Liberty -4.671800595
302 Missouri-Kansas City -4.768940092
303 Nicholls State -4.799149728
304 Brown -4.880108696
305 Colgate -4.890424242
306 Mount St. Mary's -4.936009852
307 St. Peter's -4.9491067
308 Florida International -5.007252155
309 Houston Baptist -5.10991833
310 Longwood -5.179032258
311 Samford -5.206872408
312 SIU Edwardsville -5.234793028
313 Hampton -5.2479
314 William & Mary -5.257331731
315 Alcorn State -5.406912442
316 Dartmouth -5.505066667
317 Maryland-Eastern Shore -5.578873712
318 St. Francis (PA) -5.603748126
319 Jackson State -5.667994824
320 Sacramento State -5.721607143
321 Hartford -5.774014778
322 Alabama A&M -5.802724868
323 Central Arkansas -5.82
324 Towson -6.12858871
325 Florida A&M -6.133977273
326 Cal State Northridge -6.150612245
327 Canisius -6.37178
328 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -6.519291667
329 Kennesaw State -6.560950461
330 Citadel -6.931166667
331 Northern Arizona -7.178146552
332 UC Davis -7.21944
333 Louisiana-Monroe -7.240603448
334 Radford -7.3421875
335 South Carolina State -7.361586667
336 Navy -7.390417772
337 Tennessee-Martin -7.416021505
338 Chicago State -7.420673077
339 Bryant -7.611979167
340 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.657725464
341 Northern Illinois -7.666496552
342 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.81550641
343 Grambling State -7.888950893
344 Binghamton -9.446518354
I will be doing a 'rankings challenge' over the course of the NCAA Tournament, where I make a bracket based solely on the rankings of my ranking, Ken Pom, my friend Trevor Riley of BPISports.com's rankings and the top 7 correlating rankings of the Massey Comparison where my rankings have been posted all year.
As for this week....
Your last 4 in:
St. Joseph's (PA)
Middle Tennessee State
Northwestern
South Florida (Last in)
Next 4 in:
Xavier (safest)
Arizona
Nevada
California
First 4 out (unless they win their conference tournament):
Illinois (first out)
Miami (FL)
Tennessee
Akron
Next 4 out:
Dayton
Long Beach State
Oregon
Texas
Belmont ranked in this section, but they won their conference tournament so it's a moot point.
Top 4 seed commentary:
One should think that Syracuse and Kentucky should have their #1 seeds locked up - if you think the #1 overall seed matters, in my opinion it's Syracuse's to lose.
Kansas should secure theirs, pending a Big 12 Championship victory. If they falter, the door should open for the winner of the Big 10 Tournament, assuming it's either Ohio State or Michigan State.
Assuming that either Duke or North Carolina wins the ACC Championship, they should secure the other #1 seed. Again - if one of these teams falters, that opens the door for Ohio State/Michigan State.
If the ACC should go to someone other than Duke/UNC AND the Big 10 goes to someone other than Ohio State/Michigan State this would open the door for Missouri, Baylor, Marquette or Michigan, which is an unlikely scenario.
And the rest of the rankings:
1 Syracuse 6.010322581
2 Kentucky 5.848225806
3 Duke 5.236194169
4 Kansas 5.161228288
5 North Carolina 5.072096774
6 Ohio State 4.701854839
7 Michigan State 4.424124424
8 Missouri 4.38483871
9 Baylor 4.368251613
10 Marquette 4.347806452
11 Michigan 4.266960028
12 Temple 4.21075
13 Creighton 3.947203463
14 Georgetown 3.87083296
15 Indiana 3.818774482
16 Wisconsin 3.631949509
17 Murray State 3.402822581
18 Gonzaga 3.402053333
19 Wichita State 3.390272953
20 UNLV 3.25869375
21 San Diego State 3.222395833
22 Vanderbilt 3.017903226
23 Louisville 3.014789834
24 Purdue 2.847195015
25 New Mexico 2.821791667
26 Notre Dame 2.806370968
27 Florida State 2.777071429
28 Memphis 2.762446529
29 Virginia 2.755223485
30 Kansas State 2.750333333
31 Alabama 2.677241667
32 West Virginia 2.663179117
33 Southern Miss 2.632315668
34 Saint Mary's 2.631205955
35 Harvard 2.606951923
36 Florida 2.509134897
37 Saint Louis 2.39584375
38 Cincinnati 2.383284457
39 Connecticut 2.2739375
40 Iowa State 2.222715054
41 Virginia Commonwealth 2.186655649
42 Brigham Young 2.158181818
43 Drexel 2.13053125
44 Colorado State 2.059238657
45 Mississippi State 2.033910138
46 Ole Miss 1.988138889
47 Seton Hall 1.941964115
48 Iona 1.931138393
49 Oral Roberts 1.922953125
50 Xavier 1.861659091
51 Arizona 1.856154762
52 Nevada 1.82176
53 California 1.790447205
54 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.783741511
55 Middle Tennessee State 1.757676667
56 Northwestern 1.722361111
57 South Florida 1.613302207
58 Illinois 1.610460152
59 Miami (FL) 1.57450627
60 Tennessee 1.566095947
61 Akron 1.510852535
62 Belmont 1.488165266
63 Dayton 1.428357257
64 Long Beach State 1.423542614
65 Oregon 1.363514205
66 Texas 1.340670628
67 Washington 1.323238095
68 Ohio 1.317949309
69 Minnesota 1.288064516
70 South Dakota State 1.261325
71 NC State 1.25375
72 Wagner 1.212016129
73 UCF 1.146547619
74 Massachusetts 1.140716667
75 Denver 1.119568966
76 Bucknell 1.118203125
77 Wyoming 1.112033333
78 Lehigh 1.11113125
79 Cleveland State 1.075802557
80 Marshall 1.035972222
81 LSU 1.024944193
82 La Salle 1.019295455
83 Northern Iowa 0.988463436
84 Davidson 0.983447205
85 Weber State 0.981502329
86 George Mason 0.936962891
87 Buffalo 0.935692356
88 Pittsburgh 0.933120968
89 New Mexico State 0.929562953
90 St. Bonaventure 0.922082697
91 Loyola (MD) 0.909905303
92 Montana 0.886716642
93 Robert Morris 0.871960227
94 Iowa 0.808850806
95 Stanford 0.776505898
96 Pennsylvania 0.692900319
97 Colorado 0.672939793
98 Kent State 0.625633333
99 Long Island 0.599782609
100 Texas-Arlington 0.580390269
101 Princeton 0.571960554
102 Valparaiso 0.561402699
103 Maryland 0.519991071
104 TCU 0.519456637
105 Yale 0.503419486
106 Arkansas 0.496583954
107 Duquesne 0.475420387
108 Missouri State 0.472167969
109 Old Dominion 0.466671911
110 Georgia 0.426456845
111 UCLA 0.408486352
112 Providence 0.346008065
113 Rutgers 0.332648753
114 Butler 0.314209034
115 Auburn 0.267966667
116 Richmond 0.237613911
117 Drake 0.237078125
118 Oklahoma 0.20575
119 Illinois State 0.196187646
120 Fairfield 0.133091156
121 Indiana State 0.110571754
122 Loyola Marymount 0.063346774
123 Oklahoma State 0.045952494
124 UC-Santa Barbara 0.004259259
125 Nebraska -0.002046146
126 Detroit -0.030482385
127 UAB -0.052321429
128 Penn State -0.06596562
129 Mississippi Valley State -0.072319444
130 Oregon State -0.079008296
131 North Carolina-Asheville -0.079242424
132 San Francisco -0.085123834
133 Virginia Tech -0.0893
134 Milwaukee -0.10605711
135 American University -0.119122434
136 Stony Brook -0.207196736
137 Manhattan -0.244023438
138 Mercer -0.283278237
139 Villanova -0.300625
140 St. John's -0.301379239
141 Georgia State -0.332780032
142 Tennessee State -0.339625
143 Evansville -0.358548387
144 Savannah State -0.374953917
145 Air Force -0.393317308
146 Cal State Fullerton -0.408051108
147 Boise State -0.440741877
148 Charlotte -0.442378979
149 Clemson -0.456837054
150 Bowling Green -0.484803571
151 Lamar -0.526029326
152 Green Bay -0.5297
153 Tulsa -0.530923077
154 Delaware -0.539527502
155 Vermont -0.561019683
156 Norfolk State -0.617580645
157 USC Upstate -0.659472656
158 DePaul -0.705055556
159 Idaho -0.739756944
160 Texas A&M -0.788953243
161 Utah State -0.792548116
162 Oakland -0.799389062
163 Rice -0.923771347
164 North Florida -0.971381836
165 Cornell -0.980669643
166 College of Charleston -0.987166808
167 Washington State -1.0762
168 Utah Valley University -1.10920088
169 Wake Forest -1.137403092
170 Louisiana -1.16869494
171 Holy Cross -1.175970443
172 South Alabama -1.177177235
173 Louisiana Tech -1.19125
174 Albany -1.22790043
175 Tennessee Tech -1.238447938
176 Portland State -1.270603318
177 Youngstown State -1.301540323
178 Morehead State -1.315492424
179 Boston University -1.344741935
180 Charleston Southern -1.392580645
181 North Texas -1.439902603
182 Quinnipiac -1.458104167
183 East Tennessee State -1.494302657
184 Texas-El Paso -1.507490327
185 Northeastern -1.515968081
186 Florida Gulf Coast -1.577710478
187 Houston -1.628657635
188 South Carolina -1.6725
189 Columbia -1.700266667
190 East Carolina -1.734025862
191 Wofford -1.741816169
192 George Washington -1.749195833
193 Hawaii -1.757333333
194 Georgia Tech -1.761297847
195 Wright State -1.773620319
196 Niagara -1.804396218
197 Western Illinois -1.820112732
198 Texas Southern -1.832607843
199 Fordham -1.871200544
200 Eastern Washington -1.940354839
201 Marist -1.948024554
202 North Dakota State -1.968296146
203 Tulane -1.974833333
204 Cal State Bakersfield -2.00947619
205 Georgia Southern -2.00965
206 Stephen F. Austin -2.012550239
207 Lafayette -2.030010339
208 Texas Tech -2.039477273
209 Central Connecticut State -2.048275862
210 McNeese State -2.048334975
211 Texas-San Antonio -2.09514268
212 Northwestern State -2.102927419
213 Siena -2.166697917
214 Cal Poly -2.187855787
215 Western Michigan -2.210335314
216 Arkansas-Little Rock -2.219066667
217 Arkansas State -2.234942118
218 Boston College -2.254103175
219 North Dakota -2.257110837
220 Eastern Michigan -2.2690553
221 San Diego -2.275762443
222 North Carolina Central -2.282083333
223 St. Francis (NY) -2.286366667
224 Fresno State -2.29309337
225 Rider -2.305251771
226 Elon -2.30775
227 Lipscomb -2.315008271
228 Virginia Military Institute -2.338944964
229 Campbell -2.361346507
230 Delaware State -2.383934066
231 Eastern Kentucky -2.395761719
232 Austin Peay -2.414394531
233 Monmouth -2.454082031
234 Bethune-Cookman -2.49593246
235 Coastal Carolina -2.504155502
236 Southern Methodist -2.512074028
237 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.531788668
238 IUPUI -2.559049479
239 Western Carolina -2.606184269
240 Southern University -2.715820683
241 Ball State -2.776791872
242 Rhode Island -2.846241359
243 Portland -2.857442396
244 Jacksonville State -2.874
245 Furman -2.89096875
246 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.892746544
247 Southern Utah -2.91855935
248 Coppin State -2.933261084
249 Florida Atlantic -2.940647927
250 Southern Illinois -2.98497195
251 Sacred Heart -2.987632068
252 James Madison -2.99796875
253 Miami (OH) -3.021178161
254 Western Kentucky -3.048388889
255 UC Riverside -3.051333333
256 IPFW -3.101274721
257 Southeast Missouri State -3.132212702
258 Toledo -3.296633065
259 Hofstra -3.315869318
260 Arizona State -3.403261494
261 Bradley -3.423060268
262 Prairie View A&M -3.461923963
263 Pepperdine -3.497067151
264 USC -3.62295
265 Central Michigan -3.643483333
266 Appalachian State -3.653970223
267 UC Irvine -3.691511962
268 Stetson -3.700008621
269 Army -3.714597222
270 North Carolina A&T -3.739919355
271 Troy -3.827857143
272 Presbyterian -3.844741379
273 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.861419355
274 Alabama State -3.869388889
275 Jacksonville -3.870988636
276 New Jersey Tech -3.891581565
277 High Point -3.899652605
278 Utah -3.908125
279 Sam Houston State -3.952398677
280 Texas-Pan American -4.012111437
281 Northern Colorado -4.056672932
282 Montana State -4.061906694
283 Gardner-Webb -4.06528125
284 Seattle -4.066006993
285 San Jose State -4.067222222
286 Santa Clara -4.105223485
287 Southeastern Louisiana -4.189330629
288 Texas State -4.200234917
289 UIC -4.226863636
290 Pacific -4.317964995
291 Maine -4.336460446
292 Idaho State -4.345904762
293 New Hampshire -4.399839605
294 Winthrop -4.4129375
295 Howard -4.431491379
296 Loyola (Chicago) -4.449225673
297 Eastern Illinois -4.481389452
298 Chattanooga -4.554252232
299 South Dakota -4.631184524
300 Morgan State -4.65316416
301 Liberty -4.671800595
302 Missouri-Kansas City -4.768940092
303 Nicholls State -4.799149728
304 Brown -4.880108696
305 Colgate -4.890424242
306 Mount St. Mary's -4.936009852
307 St. Peter's -4.9491067
308 Florida International -5.007252155
309 Houston Baptist -5.10991833
310 Longwood -5.179032258
311 Samford -5.206872408
312 SIU Edwardsville -5.234793028
313 Hampton -5.2479
314 William & Mary -5.257331731
315 Alcorn State -5.406912442
316 Dartmouth -5.505066667
317 Maryland-Eastern Shore -5.578873712
318 St. Francis (PA) -5.603748126
319 Jackson State -5.667994824
320 Sacramento State -5.721607143
321 Hartford -5.774014778
322 Alabama A&M -5.802724868
323 Central Arkansas -5.82
324 Towson -6.12858871
325 Florida A&M -6.133977273
326 Cal State Northridge -6.150612245
327 Canisius -6.37178
328 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -6.519291667
329 Kennesaw State -6.560950461
330 Citadel -6.931166667
331 Northern Arizona -7.178146552
332 UC Davis -7.21944
333 Louisiana-Monroe -7.240603448
334 Radford -7.3421875
335 South Carolina State -7.361586667
336 Navy -7.390417772
337 Tennessee-Martin -7.416021505
338 Chicago State -7.420673077
339 Bryant -7.611979167
340 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.657725464
341 Northern Illinois -7.666496552
342 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.81550641
343 Grambling State -7.888950893
344 Binghamton -9.446518354
Friday, March 2, 2012
Defending the Unpopular: Duke over Kentucky
Throughout the course of the season, the most common criticism I have gotten about my College Basketball rankings has been how highly I have Duke – not just that I have consistently had them ranked highly, but that I have had them ranked higher than Kentucky. Some have been outright dismissive of my rankings, solely over that one ranking ‘violation’ in the minds of critics.
I must admit that visually speaking, this ranking does not meet the eye test. Kentucky has two players I would draft in the top 5 if I were an NBA Team (Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist) along with the likely top overall pick (Davis). When I see Duke play, I see a national championship contender. When I see Kentucky play, I see the national championship favorite.
However, my rankings continue to steadfastly maintain that Duke has accomplished more than Kentucky – so let’s break down why; all stats referenced are through last Sunday.
Duke has played more games outside of it’s building than Kentucky.
Homecourt advantage is a tremendous advantage in college basketball; home teams win more than 2/3 of their games. Both Duke and Kentucky have played 29 games and Duke has played 14 of them away from home vs 12 for Kentucky. That 2 games may not seem like much, but for elite teams, the homecourt advantage virtually guarantees victories. The top 25 teams in my rankings have a combined 92 winning percentage at home – a ¼ of them have not lost at home. Those same teams only have a winning percentage of 70 in neutral and away games. Three of those teams who were nationally ranked (Michigan, Indiana, Notre Dame) possess a .500 or worse winning percentage outside of their building. No team in my top 12 has played fewer non-home games than Kentucky. Only one team in the same group has played more non-home games than Duke (Temple).
Duke has played more quality teams than Kentucky.
Duke has played 11 games against the RPI Top 50; 8 for Kentucky. Duke has played 18 games against the RPI Top 100; 12 for Kentucky. The reason that the top 100 is relevant is that my top 16 lose about 1 in every 6 tries to teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI – a win is expected but it’s hardly a guarantee. That same group wins 96% of the time against teams ranked outside the RPI’s top 100 – that effectively means that Kentucky has 6 more ‘gimmes’ than Duke, or put another way, Kentucky has played 40% of it’s schedule against teams that would have any meaningful chance of defeating them on a neutral court. To find a team that has played fewer games against RPI top 100 teams in my rankings, you have to go all the way down to #15 (Wichita State). Only two teams in the country have played more games against RPI top 100 teams than Duke (West Virginia – a bubble team who I have in, and Villanova). If you just look at games against RPI Top 50 teams, Duke has played the median number of games of all the teams in my rankings’ top 25 – Kentucky’s 8 are fewer than every BCS Conference team ranked in my top 25.
Duke has played more of it’s difficult games away from it’s building than Kentucky.
Let’s just look at games against teams that are in the tournament according to my rankings at the moment (note: this helps Kentucky and hurts Duke since I have SEC Miss State in and ACC Miami out).
Here is Duke’s list in the format of team, my ranking, result with games in bold neutral or away.
Michigan State, (5), W
Michigan (12), W
Kansas (4), W
At Ohio State (13), L
Colorado State (54), W
Washington (58), W
At Temple (8), L
Virginia (30), W
Florida State (35), L
At North Carolina (6), W
At Florida State (35), W
That’s 8-3 with only 3 of the games coming at home.
Now, let’s look at Kentucky:
Kansas, (4), W
North Carolina (6), W
At Indiana (18), L
Louisville (17), W
Alabama (32), W
Florida (27), W
At Vanderbilt (29), W
At Mississippi State (55), W
Vanderbilt (29), W
Like Duke, they have 8 wins and have only lost once, but played 5 of the 9 at home.
Summary:
Duke has played fewer games in a friendly environment, played considerably more difficult opponents and also played those opponents in a more difficult environment than Kentucky. Amongst the highest ranked teams in my rankings, Kentucky has had one of the weakest schedules, when you consider both the environment and the quality of it’s competition.
You can certainly say that Kentucky is more visually dominating than Duke and point to it’s superior record, but bear in mind that they have had a far easier road than Duke has.
I must admit that visually speaking, this ranking does not meet the eye test. Kentucky has two players I would draft in the top 5 if I were an NBA Team (Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist) along with the likely top overall pick (Davis). When I see Duke play, I see a national championship contender. When I see Kentucky play, I see the national championship favorite.
However, my rankings continue to steadfastly maintain that Duke has accomplished more than Kentucky – so let’s break down why; all stats referenced are through last Sunday.
Duke has played more games outside of it’s building than Kentucky.
Homecourt advantage is a tremendous advantage in college basketball; home teams win more than 2/3 of their games. Both Duke and Kentucky have played 29 games and Duke has played 14 of them away from home vs 12 for Kentucky. That 2 games may not seem like much, but for elite teams, the homecourt advantage virtually guarantees victories. The top 25 teams in my rankings have a combined 92 winning percentage at home – a ¼ of them have not lost at home. Those same teams only have a winning percentage of 70 in neutral and away games. Three of those teams who were nationally ranked (Michigan, Indiana, Notre Dame) possess a .500 or worse winning percentage outside of their building. No team in my top 12 has played fewer non-home games than Kentucky. Only one team in the same group has played more non-home games than Duke (Temple).
Duke has played more quality teams than Kentucky.
Duke has played 11 games against the RPI Top 50; 8 for Kentucky. Duke has played 18 games against the RPI Top 100; 12 for Kentucky. The reason that the top 100 is relevant is that my top 16 lose about 1 in every 6 tries to teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI – a win is expected but it’s hardly a guarantee. That same group wins 96% of the time against teams ranked outside the RPI’s top 100 – that effectively means that Kentucky has 6 more ‘gimmes’ than Duke, or put another way, Kentucky has played 40% of it’s schedule against teams that would have any meaningful chance of defeating them on a neutral court. To find a team that has played fewer games against RPI top 100 teams in my rankings, you have to go all the way down to #15 (Wichita State). Only two teams in the country have played more games against RPI top 100 teams than Duke (West Virginia – a bubble team who I have in, and Villanova). If you just look at games against RPI Top 50 teams, Duke has played the median number of games of all the teams in my rankings’ top 25 – Kentucky’s 8 are fewer than every BCS Conference team ranked in my top 25.
Duke has played more of it’s difficult games away from it’s building than Kentucky.
Let’s just look at games against teams that are in the tournament according to my rankings at the moment (note: this helps Kentucky and hurts Duke since I have SEC Miss State in and ACC Miami out).
Here is Duke’s list in the format of team, my ranking, result with games in bold neutral or away.
Michigan State, (5), W
Michigan (12), W
Kansas (4), W
At Ohio State (13), L
Colorado State (54), W
Washington (58), W
At Temple (8), L
Virginia (30), W
Florida State (35), L
At North Carolina (6), W
At Florida State (35), W
That’s 8-3 with only 3 of the games coming at home.
Now, let’s look at Kentucky:
Kansas, (4), W
North Carolina (6), W
At Indiana (18), L
Louisville (17), W
Alabama (32), W
Florida (27), W
At Vanderbilt (29), W
At Mississippi State (55), W
Vanderbilt (29), W
Like Duke, they have 8 wins and have only lost once, but played 5 of the 9 at home.
Summary:
Duke has played fewer games in a friendly environment, played considerably more difficult opponents and also played those opponents in a more difficult environment than Kentucky. Amongst the highest ranked teams in my rankings, Kentucky has had one of the weakest schedules, when you consider both the environment and the quality of it’s competition.
You can certainly say that Kentucky is more visually dominating than Duke and point to it’s superior record, but bear in mind that they have had a far easier road than Duke has.
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