Based on the way my ranks are structured, I'm listing the last 4 in, prior 4 in, first 4 out and next 4 out here first; this is a pretty good summation of the bubble.
Last 4 in:
Northwestern
Arizona
Minnesota
Texas (last in)
Prior 4 in:
Wagner
Mississippi State
Virginia Commonwealth
Illinois (last of this group)
First 4 out:
Long Beach State (if they don't win their tournament). They have not lost a conference game yet, so they would likely be their league rep. If you assumed they didn't win their automatic bid, they would be the first out based on my rankings.
Miami (FL)
NC State
Washington
Next 4 out:
La Salle
Akron
LSU
UCF
And now for the ranks:
1 Syracuse 5.60000
2 Duke 5.31780
3 Missouri 5.26953
4 Kentucky 5.12274
5 Kansas 4.95178
6 Baylor 4.71790
7 Michigan State 4.68045
8 Temple 4.48582
9 North Carolina 4.29902
10 Marquette 4.18900
11 Ohio State 4.12833
12 Georgetown 3.83099
13 Creighton 3.73626
14 Wichita State 3.73438
15 Indiana 3.70328
16 Michigan 3.67327
17 Louisville 3.63906
18 New Mexico 3.38941
19 UNLV 3.26594
20 Wisconsin 3.24702
21 Harvard 3.13981
22 Vanderbilt 3.08775
23 Gonzaga 3.08737
24 Southern Miss 3.04761
25 Murray State 3.04302
26 Florida 2.98036
27 Notre Dame 2.96632
28 Saint Louis 2.81552
29 West Virginia 2.74927
30 Kansas State 2.74125
31 Florida State 2.70097
32 San Diego State 2.60010
33 Purdue 2.57361
34 Virginia 2.57249
35 Seton Hall 2.48651
36 Alabama 2.43151
37 Iona 2.37301
38 Connecticut 2.34295
39 Xavier 2.25625
40 Memphis 2.23014
41 Brigham Young 2.22707
42 Saint Mary's 2.16777
43 Middle Tennessee State 2.16304
44 Drexel 2.15325
45 Iowa State 2.04884
46 Oral Roberts 2.02344
47 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.99839
48 California 1.95748
49 Cincinnati 1.94778
50 Wagner 1.92759
51 Mississippi State 1.89875
52 Virginia Commonwealth 1.89089
53 Illinois 1.85979
54 Northwestern 1.84008
55 Arizona 1.83065
56 Minnesota 1.67179
57 Texas 1.56303
58 Long Beach State 1.53604
59 Miami (FL) 1.49920
60 NC State 1.45188
61 Washington 1.45078
62 La Salle 1.44514
63 Akron 1.44008
64 LSU 1.42007
65 UCF 1.41628
66 South Dakota State 1.40429
67 Ole Miss 1.38634
68 South Florida 1.36369
69 Massachusetts 1.34179
70 Stanford 1.29643
71 Nevada 1.25374
72 Colorado State 1.23970
73 George Mason 1.21955
74 Cleveland State 1.19403
75 Dayton 1.17758
76 Marshall 1.16541
77 Pittsburgh 1.16265
78 Northern Iowa 1.16015
79 Denver 1.14774
80 Colorado 1.07726
81 Belmont 1.07124
82 Oregon 1.06287
83 Lehigh 1.04903
84 Kent State 1.02327
85 Bucknell 1.02000
86 Wyoming 1.00240
87 Weber State 0.95442
88 Davidson 0.94640
89 Ohio 0.93988
90 Long Island 0.90069
91 Buffalo 0.88091
92 Missouri State 0.86629
93 Robert Morris 0.81629
94 Loyola (MD) 0.80557
95 Duquesne 0.77745
96 Montana 0.75525
97 Yale 0.71150
98 Arkansas 0.69509
99 Tennessee 0.68128
100 Texas-Arlington 0.61211
101 New Mexico State 0.60415
102 Oklahoma State 0.60245
103 St. Bonaventure 0.59320
104 Maryland 0.59283
105 Loyola Marymount 0.57520
106 Old Dominion 0.55415
107 UCLA 0.50093
108 Drake 0.42181
109 American University 0.34562
110 Mercer 0.33613
111 Princeton 0.32380
112 Iowa 0.27315
113 Oklahoma 0.26310
114 Pennsylvania 0.25623
115 TCU 0.24592
116 Nebraska 0.24405
117 Virginia Tech 0.21538
118 Auburn 0.20225
119 Manhattan 0.19253
120 Valparaiso 0.13922
121 Rutgers 0.05424
122 Georgia State 0.04991
123 Indiana State -0.00377
124 Mississippi Valley State -0.00561
125 Oregon State -0.01798
126 Butler -0.02968
127 Georgia -0.03803
128 Richmond -0.06577
129 Villanova -0.07156
130 Providence -0.11251
131 San Francisco -0.11940
132 Charlotte -0.14864
133 Illinois State -0.16838
134 UAB -0.19740
135 Fairfield -0.22350
136 Air Force -0.25538
137 Texas A&M -0.26430
138 UC-Santa Barbara -0.26905
139 Penn State -0.27388
140 North Carolina-Asheville -0.29267
141 Tennessee State -0.30433
142 Milwaukee -0.30561
143 Lamar -0.31852
144 Stony Brook -0.33591
145 Vermont -0.33722
146 Boise State -0.37522
147 Tulsa -0.47906
148 St. John's -0.56780
149 DePaul -0.58272
150 Bowling Green -0.58449
151 Savannah State -0.63576
152 Detroit -0.66201
153 USC Upstate -0.66398
154 Delaware -0.66500
155 Cal State Fullerton -0.72837
156 Evansville -0.73192
157 Green Bay -0.74905
158 Louisiana -0.79674
159 Rice -0.80935
160 Clemson -0.85225
161 Oakland -0.85812
162 Washington State -0.88351
163 Cornell -0.89479
164 Tulane -0.94790
165 College of Charleston -0.95415
166 North Dakota State -0.97004
167 Norfolk State -1.02404
168 Youngstown State -1.03084
169 Utah Valley University -1.03637
170 McNeese State -1.05060
171 Texas-El Paso -1.08248
172 Wake Forest -1.12625
173 Columbia -1.14010
174 Charleston Southern -1.16387
175 Tennessee Tech -1.20954
176 Holy Cross -1.21413
177 South Alabama -1.22676
178 Quinnipiac -1.28413
179 Albany -1.29204
180 Northwestern State -1.29861
181 Boston University -1.31072
182 Western Michigan -1.33390
183 North Florida -1.36519
184 Idaho -1.42174
185 Georgia Tech -1.50296
186 Fordham -1.50660
187 Georgia Southern -1.57532
188 Wofford -1.58208
189 Campbell -1.59959
190 Northeastern -1.60926
191 Utah State -1.61352
192 St. Francis (NY) -1.62290
193 Wright State -1.64860
194 Hawaii -1.65769
195 South Carolina -1.65990
196 North Texas -1.68705
197 Morehead State -1.68946
198 Coastal Carolina -1.70105
199 Eastern Kentucky -1.72666
200 East Carolina -1.72973
201 Texas Southern -1.84088
202 Portland State -1.84172
203 George Washington -1.88101
204 Florida Atlantic -1.89648
205 Niagara -1.91170
206 Texas Tech -1.92471
207 Florida Gulf Coast -1.95375
208 Arkansas-Little Rock -1.97585
209 Houston -1.97641
210 Louisiana Tech -2.01230
211 Lafayette -2.02595
212 Marist -2.03524
213 Fresno State -2.04867
214 Western Illinois -2.06308
215 East Tennessee State -2.08621
216 Texas-San Antonio -2.10293
217 Arkansas State -2.13425
218 Central Connecticut State -2.15723
219 Siena -2.20301
220 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.21045
221 Lipscomb -2.25927
222 Boston College -2.26204
223 Delaware State -2.28792
224 Cal Poly -2.37480
225 Virginia Military Institute -2.37489
226 Eastern Washington -2.39193
227 Eastern Michigan -2.41560
228 Cal State Bakersfield -2.42584
229 San Diego -2.42614
230 Coppin State -2.42913
231 Bethune-Cookman -2.43419
232 Southern Methodist -2.44337
233 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.47590
234 Rider -2.50369
235 Ball State -2.51863
236 Austin Peay -2.54526
237 Southern Utah -2.63174
238 Elon -2.68547
239 Southeast Missouri State -2.69993
240 Southern University -2.71751
241 North Carolina Central -2.74001
242 USC -2.80286
243 Stephen F. Austin -2.80731
244 Sacred Heart -2.81251
245 Southern Illinois -2.85049
246 IUPUI -2.92136
247 North Dakota -2.94764
248 Jacksonville State -2.98969
249 Hofstra -3.01970
250 Monmouth -3.10692
251 Miami (OH) -3.11757
252 Idaho State -3.13554
253 Western Carolina -3.13618
254 James Madison -3.21166
255 Furman -3.23516
256 Bradley -3.23657
257 IPFW -3.30576
258 Texas-Pan American -3.36414
259 Arizona State -3.36803
260 Alabama State -3.38688
261 Portland -3.38899
262 Toledo -3.39851
263 Sam Houston State -3.47669
264 Prairie View A&M -3.48242
265 UC Riverside -3.53783
266 Central Michigan -3.56869
267 Rhode Island -3.57370
268 Appalachian State -3.57674
269 Army -3.58937
270 Gardner-Webb -3.60981
271 New Jersey Tech -3.65329
272 Santa Clara -3.74753
273 North Carolina A&T -3.74767
274 UC Irvine -3.83976
275 Southeastern Louisiana -3.85132
276 Stetson -3.86935
277 Pepperdine -3.88579
278 Western Kentucky -3.96082
279 Pacific -3.98874
280 New Hampshire -4.02003
281 Northern Colorado -4.02821
282 Texas State -4.05981
283 Missouri-Kansas City -4.07655
284 Utah -4.07761
285 UIC -4.10952
286 High Point -4.15889
287 Jacksonville -4.16153
288 San Jose State -4.17082
289 Seattle -4.20799
290 Nicholls State -4.29624
291 Samford -4.30272
292 Eastern Illinois -4.32393
293 Presbyterian -4.32875
294 Maine -4.41034
295 Loyola (Chicago) -4.44598
296 Howard -4.46343
297 South Dakota -4.46723
298 Troy -4.53006
299 Chattanooga -4.54722
300 Alcorn State -4.59865
301 Montana State -4.61529
302 Florida International -4.65287
303 Jackson State -4.66183
304 Hampton -4.67050
305 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.73447
306 Colgate -4.75193
307 Mount St. Mary's -4.76170
308 St. Peter's -4.76640
309 Liberty -4.80034
310 Houston Baptist -4.90710
311 Maryland-Eastern Shore -4.98584
312 Brown -5.00679
313 St. Francis (PA) -5.18778
314 Central Arkansas -5.19409
315 Alabama A&M -5.24003
316 Hartford -5.26908
317 William & Mary -5.29200
318 Dartmouth -5.33505
319 Morgan State -5.43701
320 Longwood -5.52955
321 Winthrop -5.57552
322 Cal State Northridge -5.67733
323 Towson -5.76847
324 Sacramento State -5.79179
325 SIU Edwardsville -5.93681
326 Florida A&M -6.00204
327 Canisius -6.24535
328 Chicago State -6.26563
329 Kennesaw State -6.30808
330 Radford -6.41288
331 South Carolina State -6.52692
332 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -6.83995
333 Northern Arizona -7.15071
334 Bryant -7.15251
335 Citadel -7.15785
336 Tennessee-Martin -7.19597
337 Northern Illinois -7.37150
338 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.55871
339 Grambling State -7.62938
340 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.68489
341 UC Davis -7.71938
342 Louisiana-Monroe -7.85486
343 Navy -7.94722
344 Binghamton -9.94296
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