Last 4 in:
Mississippi State
Long Beach State
Dayton
Washington (last of this group)
Prior 4 in:
Middle Tennessee State
Oral Roberts
Illinois
Colorado State
First 4 out (assuming they don't win an automatic berth)
Wagner (top)
Texas
Ole Miss
Belmont
Next 4 out (assuming they don't win an automatic berth:
Massachusetts
LSU
South Florida (I'll be seeing them in person Saturday)
Akron
Given those breakdowns, it should be fairly easy to tell who I have in and out:
1 Syracuse 6.126666667 1
2 Duke 5.496824138 2
3 Kentucky 5.369716749 3
4 Kansas 5.078103448 4
5 Michigan State 4.852586207 5
6 North Carolina 4.776675862 6
7 Baylor 4.725150862 7
8 Temple 4.625357143 8
9 Marquette 4.544827586 9
10 Missouri 4.173096552 10
11 Georgetown 3.866746032 11
12 Michigan 3.8508867 12
13 Ohio State 3.802173913 13
14 Wisconsin 3.720394089 14
15 Wichita State 3.657282051 15
16 Creighton 3.646496667 16
17 Louisville 3.457138379 17
18 Indiana 3.351286946 18
19 Gonzaga 3.234579193 19
20 UNLV 3.232520833 20
21 Murray State 3.193362069 21
22 Notre Dame 3.190732759 22
23 Harvard 3.067109375 23
24 Purdue 2.998566243 24
25 Southern Miss 2.995386057 25
26 New Mexico 2.963774351 26
27 Florida 2.92481863 27
28 San Diego State 2.897857143 28
29 Vanderbilt 2.873494253 29
30 Virginia 2.772908163 30
31 Kansas State 2.724464286 31
32 Alabama 2.699011591 32
33 Connecticut 2.630368602 33
34 Saint Mary's 2.567386667 34
35 Florida State 2.55830653 35
36 Seton Hall 2.550139746 36
37 Memphis 2.481871921 37
38 West Virginia 2.41984787 38
39 Virginia Commonwealth 2.250245161 39
40 Saint Louis 2.226152597 40
41 Cincinnati 2.174300287 41
42 Xavier 2.159922619 42
43 Drexel 2.11094 43
44 Iowa State 2.076231527 44
45 Iona 1.990138681 45
46 Brigham Young 1.986875 46
47 California 1.916393892 47
48 Northwestern 1.915672746 48
49 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.891841707 49
50 Arizona 1.856154762 50
51 Middle Tennessee State 1.757676667 51
52 Oral Roberts 1.73885794 52
53 Illinois 1.699665179 53
54 Colorado State 1.639702614 54
55 Mississippi State 1.636097096 55
56 Long Beach State 1.630969388 56
57 Dayton 1.629964286 57
58 Washington 1.566607143 58
59 Wagner 1.473993534 59
60 Texas 1.464033438 60
61 Ole Miss 1.444732143 61
62 Belmont 1.42405962 62
63 Massachusetts 1.421763784 63
64 LSU 1.411199389 64
65 South Florida 1.3876907 65
66 Akron 1.344625 66
67 Miami (FL) 1.338461538 67
68 Oregon 1.292317251 68
69 Nevada 1.285182453 69
70 Minnesota 1.265801217 70
71 Weber State 1.2365781 71
72 UCF 1.230200893 72
73 South Dakota State 1.211129032 73
74 Lehigh 1.165575569 74
75 Cleveland State 1.139831378 75
76 Denver 1.119568966 76
77 Northern Iowa 1.119333616 77
78 Bucknell 1.115155303 78
79 Ohio 1.114894481 79
80 Pittsburgh 1.084396552 80
81 NC State 1.052390282 81
82 Davidson 1.051162674 82
83 Marshall 1.042953591 83
84 Tennessee 1.024864058 84
85 Wyoming 1.024511278 85
86 Colorado 0.997091165 86
87 Iowa 0.984006868 87
88 George Mason 0.949254909 88
89 Pennsylvania 0.89586039 89
90 Loyola (MD) 0.881884236 90
91 La Salle 0.879851097 91
92 Yale 0.837267206 92
93 Montana 0.791574675 93
94 New Mexico State 0.79061553 94
95 Stanford 0.776505898 95
96 Arkansas 0.726112853 96
97 St. Bonaventure 0.720697115 97
98 Maryland 0.6865625 98
99 Texas-Arlington 0.680008117 99
100 TCU 0.66496228 100
101 Duquesne 0.62054533 101
102 Kent State 0.603226817 102
103 Buffalo 0.596349925 103
104 Princeton 0.592070181 104
105 Robert Morris 0.585117302 105
106 Rutgers 0.552521552 106
107 Old Dominion 0.551118421 107
108 UCLA 0.530543767 108
109 Long Island 0.502962121 109
110 Loyola Marymount 0.449463317 110
111 Missouri State 0.448580645 111
112 Valparaiso 0.327782258 112
113 Richmond 0.308366667 113
114 Georgia 0.291468407 114
115 Nebraska 0.270453704 115
116 Drake 0.246592262 116
117 Auburn 0.241683673 117
118 Oklahoma 0.224559949 118
119 Oklahoma State 0.208245074 119
120 Butler 0.130463193 120
121 Mercer 0.124737327 121
122 Mississippi Valley State 0.120481283 122
123 Manhattan 0.10473607 123
124 Providence 0.096788177 124
125 Virginia Tech 0.055836207 125
126 American University 0.04681216 126
127 Indiana State 0.044091629 127
128 UC-Santa Barbara 0.03445 128
129 Milwaukee 0.019622241 129
130 UAB -0.015890313 130
131 Oregon State -0.017976852 131
132 Villanova -0.054722116 132
133 Charlotte -0.055120065 133
134 Tulsa -0.064929335 134
135 Penn State -0.098846349 135
136 Georgia State -0.122666667 136
137 St. John's -0.175292606 137
138 North Carolina-Asheville -0.207428571 138
139 Stony Brook -0.240848214 139
140 Air Force -0.288957101 140
141 Clemson -0.290396978 141
142 USC Upstate -0.311112537 142
143 San Francisco -0.324416667 143
144 Green Bay -0.339394089 144
145 Detroit -0.342460711 145
146 Illinois State -0.348416667 146
147 Boise State -0.366846764 147
148 Tennessee State -0.418168262 148
149 Delaware -0.452434077 149
150 Rice -0.47529758 150
151 Cornell -0.520895105 151
152 Vermont -0.581631965 152
153 Savannah State -0.590411071 153
154 Evansville -0.603078818 154
155 Texas A&M -0.618947802 155
156 Lamar -0.626687565 156
157 Fairfield -0.655666667 157
158 Bowling Green -0.686057692 158
159 College of Charleston -0.774338517 159
160 North Florida -0.77841129 160
161 Oakland -0.799389062 161
162 Wake Forest -0.844438187 162
163 Texas-El Paso -0.846147959 163
164 Norfolk State -0.858163793 164
165 Cal State Fullerton -0.896231725 165
166 DePaul -0.91259979 166
167 Holy Cross -0.940631868 167
168 Utah Valley University -0.972983333 168
169 Washington State -1.043399235 169
170 Youngstown State -1.151448276 170
171 Louisiana -1.16869494 171
172 Tulane -1.2675 172
173 Georgia Tech -1.272919643 173
174 South Alabama -1.28775726 174
175 Charleston Southern -1.299425287 175
176 Tennessee Tech -1.310513889 176
177 Albany -1.324131514 177
178 Boston University -1.344741935 178
179 Utah State -1.362955665 179
180 Wofford -1.365264219 180
181 Columbia -1.378903061 181
182 Quinnipiac -1.402162779 182
183 Northeastern -1.416972812 183
184 North Texas -1.439902603 184
185 Fordham -1.444683007 185
186 Portland State -1.450260989 186
187 Idaho -1.497767857 187
188 Morehead State -1.544634386 188
189 Western Michigan -1.591688641 189
190 Houston -1.627942613 190
191 Hawaii -1.659718407 191
192 East Tennessee State -1.69071618 192
193 McNeese State -1.709481481 193
194 Texas Southern -1.719560185 194
195 Louisiana Tech -1.72421798 195
196 South Carolina -1.726125 196
197 George Washington -1.745133929 197
198 Wright State -1.74807072 198
199 Coastal Carolina -1.759352087 199
200 Georgia Southern -1.794413265 200
201 East Carolina -1.840462963 201
202 Western Illinois -1.865241758 202
203 Northwestern State -1.908232759 203
204 Lafayette -1.91969574 204
205 North Dakota State -1.968296146 205
206 Florida Gulf Coast -2.003165617 206
207 Cal State Bakersfield -2.00947619 207
208 Campbell -2.034880726 208
209 Central Connecticut State -2.043392857 209
210 Texas Tech -2.052089286 210
211 Delaware State -2.117307692 211
212 Eastern Kentucky -2.153181452 212
213 Austin Peay -2.178404075 213
214 Eastern Michigan -2.187501243 214
215 Cal Poly -2.206719212 215
216 San Diego -2.207210953 216
217 Eastern Washington -2.21681366 217
218 Arkansas-Little Rock -2.219066667 218
219 St. Francis (NY) -2.222439655 219
220 Niagara -2.239007444 220
221 Stephen F. Austin -2.256308251 221
222 Marist -2.313280166 222
223 Rider -2.315493176 223
224 Lipscomb -2.321995475 224
225 Texas-San Antonio -2.322387268 225
226 Fresno State -2.327360483 226
227 Arkansas State -2.392185908 227
228 Southern Methodist -2.448533215 228
229 Elon -2.480384236 229
230 Florida Atlantic -2.511645768 230
231 Boston College -2.58609375 231
232 North Carolina Central -2.606441327 232
233 Virginia Military Institute -2.620628079 233
234 Southern University -2.664827586 234
235 Siena -2.69698939 235
236 IUPUI -2.709623204 236
237 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.724722222 237
238 Jacksonville State -2.734222011 238
239 James Madison -2.748064516 239
240 Miami (OH) -2.755200617 240
241 Bethune-Cookman -2.775464191 241
242 Monmouth -2.789068336 242
243 Ball State -2.822498982 243
244 North Dakota -2.850766178 244
245 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.85508046 245
246 Western Carolina -2.91682231 246
247 Southern Utah -2.91855935 247
248 Southern Illinois -2.929575758 248
249 UC Riverside -2.966536804 249
250 Southeast Missouri State -2.969960591 250
251 Portland -3.013943028 251
252 Rhode Island -3.022406297 252
253 Furman -3.027758621 253
254 Coppin State -3.046495218 254
255 Sacred Heart -3.063502982 255
256 Toledo -3.080066502 256
257 USC -3.13125 257
258 Hofstra -3.174548387 258
259 Western Kentucky -3.190124086 259
260 North Carolina A&T -3.380248479 260
261 Bradley -3.383775922 261
262 Arizona State -3.403261494 262
263 UC Irvine -3.42696715 263
264 IPFW -3.44026907 264
265 Prairie View A&M -3.48641183 265
266 Texas-Pan American -3.503320272 266
267 Pepperdine -3.581508929 267
268 Appalachian State -3.622667343 268
269 Utah -3.630831981 269
270 Central Michigan -3.683975564 270
271 Stetson -3.700008621 271
272 Texas State -3.70560989 272
273 Gardner-Webb -3.745199491 273
274 Santa Clara -3.787124384 274
275 Army -3.805963489 275
276 Presbyterian -3.844741379 276
277 Nicholls State -3.874922658 277
278 Jacksonville -3.878633005 278
279 Troy -3.88422658 279
280 Northern Colorado -3.892314815 280
281 Sam Houston State -3.914807302 281
282 Alabama State -3.973921569 282
283 New Jersey Tech -3.978035714 283
284 High Point -3.983955375 284
285 Winthrop -3.993480861 285
286 San Jose State -4.063659148 286
287 Pacific -4.110697601 287
288 Idaho State -4.179417293 288
289 Maine -4.207924107 289
290 UIC -4.241896552 290
291 New Hampshire -4.24356044 291
292 Seattle -4.27192 292
293 Alcorn State -4.28185118 293
294 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.334655172 294
295 Liberty -4.359769585 295
296 Montana State -4.374484428 296
297 Howard -4.431491379 297
298 Loyola (Chicago) -4.43924429 298
299 Eastern Illinois -4.481389452 299
300 Chattanooga -4.49383871 300
301 Southeastern Louisiana -4.618169935 301
302 South Dakota -4.631184524 302
303 Florida International -4.699832589 303
304 Samford -4.767857889 304
305 Missouri-Kansas City -4.768940092 305
306 Hampton -4.785505952 306
307 Maryland-Eastern Shore -4.887989418 307
308 Mount St. Mary's -4.936009852 308
309 Brown -4.990332512 309
310 Central Arkansas -5.047192982 310
311 Houston Baptist -5.093798559 311
312 Jackson State -5.098378307 312
313 Alabama A&M -5.117777778 313
314 Colgate -5.177339901 314
315 William & Mary -5.177806452 315
316 Dartmouth -5.222795031 316
317 Longwood -5.364809437 317
318 Morgan State -5.402426258 318
319 SIU Edwardsville -5.417326546 319
320 St. Peter's -5.475021552 320
321 St. Francis (PA) -5.603748126 321
322 Sacramento State -5.721607143 322
323 Florida A&M -5.722696429 323
324 Hartford -5.774014778 324
325 Towson -6.077322581 325
326 Cal State Northridge -6.131322751 326
327 Kennesaw State -6.560950461 327
328 Canisius -6.626465517 328
329 Chicago State -6.739285714 329
330 Citadel -6.766754123 330
331 Northern Arizona -6.873020186 331
332 Radford -7.031535484 332
333 South Carolina State -7.04386646 333
334 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -7.150962733 334
335 Louisiana-Monroe -7.240603448 335
336 UC Davis -7.27490528 336
337 Tennessee-Martin -7.416021505 337
338 Northern Illinois -7.504675926 338
339 Bryant -7.611979167 339
340 Grambling State -7.652327273 340
341 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.657725464 341
342 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.771062069 342
343 Navy -7.772521429 343
344 Binghamton -9.895843596 344
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Sunday, February 19, 2012
CBB Rankings 2-19-12
Based on the way my ranks are structured, I'm listing the last 4 in, prior 4 in, first 4 out and next 4 out here first; this is a pretty good summation of the bubble.
Last 4 in:
Northwestern
Arizona
Minnesota
Texas (last in)
Prior 4 in:
Wagner
Mississippi State
Virginia Commonwealth
Illinois (last of this group)
First 4 out:
Long Beach State (if they don't win their tournament). They have not lost a conference game yet, so they would likely be their league rep. If you assumed they didn't win their automatic bid, they would be the first out based on my rankings.
Miami (FL)
NC State
Washington
Next 4 out:
La Salle
Akron
LSU
UCF
And now for the ranks:
1 Syracuse 5.60000
2 Duke 5.31780
3 Missouri 5.26953
4 Kentucky 5.12274
5 Kansas 4.95178
6 Baylor 4.71790
7 Michigan State 4.68045
8 Temple 4.48582
9 North Carolina 4.29902
10 Marquette 4.18900
11 Ohio State 4.12833
12 Georgetown 3.83099
13 Creighton 3.73626
14 Wichita State 3.73438
15 Indiana 3.70328
16 Michigan 3.67327
17 Louisville 3.63906
18 New Mexico 3.38941
19 UNLV 3.26594
20 Wisconsin 3.24702
21 Harvard 3.13981
22 Vanderbilt 3.08775
23 Gonzaga 3.08737
24 Southern Miss 3.04761
25 Murray State 3.04302
26 Florida 2.98036
27 Notre Dame 2.96632
28 Saint Louis 2.81552
29 West Virginia 2.74927
30 Kansas State 2.74125
31 Florida State 2.70097
32 San Diego State 2.60010
33 Purdue 2.57361
34 Virginia 2.57249
35 Seton Hall 2.48651
36 Alabama 2.43151
37 Iona 2.37301
38 Connecticut 2.34295
39 Xavier 2.25625
40 Memphis 2.23014
41 Brigham Young 2.22707
42 Saint Mary's 2.16777
43 Middle Tennessee State 2.16304
44 Drexel 2.15325
45 Iowa State 2.04884
46 Oral Roberts 2.02344
47 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.99839
48 California 1.95748
49 Cincinnati 1.94778
50 Wagner 1.92759
51 Mississippi State 1.89875
52 Virginia Commonwealth 1.89089
53 Illinois 1.85979
54 Northwestern 1.84008
55 Arizona 1.83065
56 Minnesota 1.67179
57 Texas 1.56303
58 Long Beach State 1.53604
59 Miami (FL) 1.49920
60 NC State 1.45188
61 Washington 1.45078
62 La Salle 1.44514
63 Akron 1.44008
64 LSU 1.42007
65 UCF 1.41628
66 South Dakota State 1.40429
67 Ole Miss 1.38634
68 South Florida 1.36369
69 Massachusetts 1.34179
70 Stanford 1.29643
71 Nevada 1.25374
72 Colorado State 1.23970
73 George Mason 1.21955
74 Cleveland State 1.19403
75 Dayton 1.17758
76 Marshall 1.16541
77 Pittsburgh 1.16265
78 Northern Iowa 1.16015
79 Denver 1.14774
80 Colorado 1.07726
81 Belmont 1.07124
82 Oregon 1.06287
83 Lehigh 1.04903
84 Kent State 1.02327
85 Bucknell 1.02000
86 Wyoming 1.00240
87 Weber State 0.95442
88 Davidson 0.94640
89 Ohio 0.93988
90 Long Island 0.90069
91 Buffalo 0.88091
92 Missouri State 0.86629
93 Robert Morris 0.81629
94 Loyola (MD) 0.80557
95 Duquesne 0.77745
96 Montana 0.75525
97 Yale 0.71150
98 Arkansas 0.69509
99 Tennessee 0.68128
100 Texas-Arlington 0.61211
101 New Mexico State 0.60415
102 Oklahoma State 0.60245
103 St. Bonaventure 0.59320
104 Maryland 0.59283
105 Loyola Marymount 0.57520
106 Old Dominion 0.55415
107 UCLA 0.50093
108 Drake 0.42181
109 American University 0.34562
110 Mercer 0.33613
111 Princeton 0.32380
112 Iowa 0.27315
113 Oklahoma 0.26310
114 Pennsylvania 0.25623
115 TCU 0.24592
116 Nebraska 0.24405
117 Virginia Tech 0.21538
118 Auburn 0.20225
119 Manhattan 0.19253
120 Valparaiso 0.13922
121 Rutgers 0.05424
122 Georgia State 0.04991
123 Indiana State -0.00377
124 Mississippi Valley State -0.00561
125 Oregon State -0.01798
126 Butler -0.02968
127 Georgia -0.03803
128 Richmond -0.06577
129 Villanova -0.07156
130 Providence -0.11251
131 San Francisco -0.11940
132 Charlotte -0.14864
133 Illinois State -0.16838
134 UAB -0.19740
135 Fairfield -0.22350
136 Air Force -0.25538
137 Texas A&M -0.26430
138 UC-Santa Barbara -0.26905
139 Penn State -0.27388
140 North Carolina-Asheville -0.29267
141 Tennessee State -0.30433
142 Milwaukee -0.30561
143 Lamar -0.31852
144 Stony Brook -0.33591
145 Vermont -0.33722
146 Boise State -0.37522
147 Tulsa -0.47906
148 St. John's -0.56780
149 DePaul -0.58272
150 Bowling Green -0.58449
151 Savannah State -0.63576
152 Detroit -0.66201
153 USC Upstate -0.66398
154 Delaware -0.66500
155 Cal State Fullerton -0.72837
156 Evansville -0.73192
157 Green Bay -0.74905
158 Louisiana -0.79674
159 Rice -0.80935
160 Clemson -0.85225
161 Oakland -0.85812
162 Washington State -0.88351
163 Cornell -0.89479
164 Tulane -0.94790
165 College of Charleston -0.95415
166 North Dakota State -0.97004
167 Norfolk State -1.02404
168 Youngstown State -1.03084
169 Utah Valley University -1.03637
170 McNeese State -1.05060
171 Texas-El Paso -1.08248
172 Wake Forest -1.12625
173 Columbia -1.14010
174 Charleston Southern -1.16387
175 Tennessee Tech -1.20954
176 Holy Cross -1.21413
177 South Alabama -1.22676
178 Quinnipiac -1.28413
179 Albany -1.29204
180 Northwestern State -1.29861
181 Boston University -1.31072
182 Western Michigan -1.33390
183 North Florida -1.36519
184 Idaho -1.42174
185 Georgia Tech -1.50296
186 Fordham -1.50660
187 Georgia Southern -1.57532
188 Wofford -1.58208
189 Campbell -1.59959
190 Northeastern -1.60926
191 Utah State -1.61352
192 St. Francis (NY) -1.62290
193 Wright State -1.64860
194 Hawaii -1.65769
195 South Carolina -1.65990
196 North Texas -1.68705
197 Morehead State -1.68946
198 Coastal Carolina -1.70105
199 Eastern Kentucky -1.72666
200 East Carolina -1.72973
201 Texas Southern -1.84088
202 Portland State -1.84172
203 George Washington -1.88101
204 Florida Atlantic -1.89648
205 Niagara -1.91170
206 Texas Tech -1.92471
207 Florida Gulf Coast -1.95375
208 Arkansas-Little Rock -1.97585
209 Houston -1.97641
210 Louisiana Tech -2.01230
211 Lafayette -2.02595
212 Marist -2.03524
213 Fresno State -2.04867
214 Western Illinois -2.06308
215 East Tennessee State -2.08621
216 Texas-San Antonio -2.10293
217 Arkansas State -2.13425
218 Central Connecticut State -2.15723
219 Siena -2.20301
220 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.21045
221 Lipscomb -2.25927
222 Boston College -2.26204
223 Delaware State -2.28792
224 Cal Poly -2.37480
225 Virginia Military Institute -2.37489
226 Eastern Washington -2.39193
227 Eastern Michigan -2.41560
228 Cal State Bakersfield -2.42584
229 San Diego -2.42614
230 Coppin State -2.42913
231 Bethune-Cookman -2.43419
232 Southern Methodist -2.44337
233 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.47590
234 Rider -2.50369
235 Ball State -2.51863
236 Austin Peay -2.54526
237 Southern Utah -2.63174
238 Elon -2.68547
239 Southeast Missouri State -2.69993
240 Southern University -2.71751
241 North Carolina Central -2.74001
242 USC -2.80286
243 Stephen F. Austin -2.80731
244 Sacred Heart -2.81251
245 Southern Illinois -2.85049
246 IUPUI -2.92136
247 North Dakota -2.94764
248 Jacksonville State -2.98969
249 Hofstra -3.01970
250 Monmouth -3.10692
251 Miami (OH) -3.11757
252 Idaho State -3.13554
253 Western Carolina -3.13618
254 James Madison -3.21166
255 Furman -3.23516
256 Bradley -3.23657
257 IPFW -3.30576
258 Texas-Pan American -3.36414
259 Arizona State -3.36803
260 Alabama State -3.38688
261 Portland -3.38899
262 Toledo -3.39851
263 Sam Houston State -3.47669
264 Prairie View A&M -3.48242
265 UC Riverside -3.53783
266 Central Michigan -3.56869
267 Rhode Island -3.57370
268 Appalachian State -3.57674
269 Army -3.58937
270 Gardner-Webb -3.60981
271 New Jersey Tech -3.65329
272 Santa Clara -3.74753
273 North Carolina A&T -3.74767
274 UC Irvine -3.83976
275 Southeastern Louisiana -3.85132
276 Stetson -3.86935
277 Pepperdine -3.88579
278 Western Kentucky -3.96082
279 Pacific -3.98874
280 New Hampshire -4.02003
281 Northern Colorado -4.02821
282 Texas State -4.05981
283 Missouri-Kansas City -4.07655
284 Utah -4.07761
285 UIC -4.10952
286 High Point -4.15889
287 Jacksonville -4.16153
288 San Jose State -4.17082
289 Seattle -4.20799
290 Nicholls State -4.29624
291 Samford -4.30272
292 Eastern Illinois -4.32393
293 Presbyterian -4.32875
294 Maine -4.41034
295 Loyola (Chicago) -4.44598
296 Howard -4.46343
297 South Dakota -4.46723
298 Troy -4.53006
299 Chattanooga -4.54722
300 Alcorn State -4.59865
301 Montana State -4.61529
302 Florida International -4.65287
303 Jackson State -4.66183
304 Hampton -4.67050
305 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.73447
306 Colgate -4.75193
307 Mount St. Mary's -4.76170
308 St. Peter's -4.76640
309 Liberty -4.80034
310 Houston Baptist -4.90710
311 Maryland-Eastern Shore -4.98584
312 Brown -5.00679
313 St. Francis (PA) -5.18778
314 Central Arkansas -5.19409
315 Alabama A&M -5.24003
316 Hartford -5.26908
317 William & Mary -5.29200
318 Dartmouth -5.33505
319 Morgan State -5.43701
320 Longwood -5.52955
321 Winthrop -5.57552
322 Cal State Northridge -5.67733
323 Towson -5.76847
324 Sacramento State -5.79179
325 SIU Edwardsville -5.93681
326 Florida A&M -6.00204
327 Canisius -6.24535
328 Chicago State -6.26563
329 Kennesaw State -6.30808
330 Radford -6.41288
331 South Carolina State -6.52692
332 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -6.83995
333 Northern Arizona -7.15071
334 Bryant -7.15251
335 Citadel -7.15785
336 Tennessee-Martin -7.19597
337 Northern Illinois -7.37150
338 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.55871
339 Grambling State -7.62938
340 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.68489
341 UC Davis -7.71938
342 Louisiana-Monroe -7.85486
343 Navy -7.94722
344 Binghamton -9.94296
Last 4 in:
Northwestern
Arizona
Minnesota
Texas (last in)
Prior 4 in:
Wagner
Mississippi State
Virginia Commonwealth
Illinois (last of this group)
First 4 out:
Long Beach State (if they don't win their tournament). They have not lost a conference game yet, so they would likely be their league rep. If you assumed they didn't win their automatic bid, they would be the first out based on my rankings.
Miami (FL)
NC State
Washington
Next 4 out:
La Salle
Akron
LSU
UCF
And now for the ranks:
1 Syracuse 5.60000
2 Duke 5.31780
3 Missouri 5.26953
4 Kentucky 5.12274
5 Kansas 4.95178
6 Baylor 4.71790
7 Michigan State 4.68045
8 Temple 4.48582
9 North Carolina 4.29902
10 Marquette 4.18900
11 Ohio State 4.12833
12 Georgetown 3.83099
13 Creighton 3.73626
14 Wichita State 3.73438
15 Indiana 3.70328
16 Michigan 3.67327
17 Louisville 3.63906
18 New Mexico 3.38941
19 UNLV 3.26594
20 Wisconsin 3.24702
21 Harvard 3.13981
22 Vanderbilt 3.08775
23 Gonzaga 3.08737
24 Southern Miss 3.04761
25 Murray State 3.04302
26 Florida 2.98036
27 Notre Dame 2.96632
28 Saint Louis 2.81552
29 West Virginia 2.74927
30 Kansas State 2.74125
31 Florida State 2.70097
32 San Diego State 2.60010
33 Purdue 2.57361
34 Virginia 2.57249
35 Seton Hall 2.48651
36 Alabama 2.43151
37 Iona 2.37301
38 Connecticut 2.34295
39 Xavier 2.25625
40 Memphis 2.23014
41 Brigham Young 2.22707
42 Saint Mary's 2.16777
43 Middle Tennessee State 2.16304
44 Drexel 2.15325
45 Iowa State 2.04884
46 Oral Roberts 2.02344
47 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.99839
48 California 1.95748
49 Cincinnati 1.94778
50 Wagner 1.92759
51 Mississippi State 1.89875
52 Virginia Commonwealth 1.89089
53 Illinois 1.85979
54 Northwestern 1.84008
55 Arizona 1.83065
56 Minnesota 1.67179
57 Texas 1.56303
58 Long Beach State 1.53604
59 Miami (FL) 1.49920
60 NC State 1.45188
61 Washington 1.45078
62 La Salle 1.44514
63 Akron 1.44008
64 LSU 1.42007
65 UCF 1.41628
66 South Dakota State 1.40429
67 Ole Miss 1.38634
68 South Florida 1.36369
69 Massachusetts 1.34179
70 Stanford 1.29643
71 Nevada 1.25374
72 Colorado State 1.23970
73 George Mason 1.21955
74 Cleveland State 1.19403
75 Dayton 1.17758
76 Marshall 1.16541
77 Pittsburgh 1.16265
78 Northern Iowa 1.16015
79 Denver 1.14774
80 Colorado 1.07726
81 Belmont 1.07124
82 Oregon 1.06287
83 Lehigh 1.04903
84 Kent State 1.02327
85 Bucknell 1.02000
86 Wyoming 1.00240
87 Weber State 0.95442
88 Davidson 0.94640
89 Ohio 0.93988
90 Long Island 0.90069
91 Buffalo 0.88091
92 Missouri State 0.86629
93 Robert Morris 0.81629
94 Loyola (MD) 0.80557
95 Duquesne 0.77745
96 Montana 0.75525
97 Yale 0.71150
98 Arkansas 0.69509
99 Tennessee 0.68128
100 Texas-Arlington 0.61211
101 New Mexico State 0.60415
102 Oklahoma State 0.60245
103 St. Bonaventure 0.59320
104 Maryland 0.59283
105 Loyola Marymount 0.57520
106 Old Dominion 0.55415
107 UCLA 0.50093
108 Drake 0.42181
109 American University 0.34562
110 Mercer 0.33613
111 Princeton 0.32380
112 Iowa 0.27315
113 Oklahoma 0.26310
114 Pennsylvania 0.25623
115 TCU 0.24592
116 Nebraska 0.24405
117 Virginia Tech 0.21538
118 Auburn 0.20225
119 Manhattan 0.19253
120 Valparaiso 0.13922
121 Rutgers 0.05424
122 Georgia State 0.04991
123 Indiana State -0.00377
124 Mississippi Valley State -0.00561
125 Oregon State -0.01798
126 Butler -0.02968
127 Georgia -0.03803
128 Richmond -0.06577
129 Villanova -0.07156
130 Providence -0.11251
131 San Francisco -0.11940
132 Charlotte -0.14864
133 Illinois State -0.16838
134 UAB -0.19740
135 Fairfield -0.22350
136 Air Force -0.25538
137 Texas A&M -0.26430
138 UC-Santa Barbara -0.26905
139 Penn State -0.27388
140 North Carolina-Asheville -0.29267
141 Tennessee State -0.30433
142 Milwaukee -0.30561
143 Lamar -0.31852
144 Stony Brook -0.33591
145 Vermont -0.33722
146 Boise State -0.37522
147 Tulsa -0.47906
148 St. John's -0.56780
149 DePaul -0.58272
150 Bowling Green -0.58449
151 Savannah State -0.63576
152 Detroit -0.66201
153 USC Upstate -0.66398
154 Delaware -0.66500
155 Cal State Fullerton -0.72837
156 Evansville -0.73192
157 Green Bay -0.74905
158 Louisiana -0.79674
159 Rice -0.80935
160 Clemson -0.85225
161 Oakland -0.85812
162 Washington State -0.88351
163 Cornell -0.89479
164 Tulane -0.94790
165 College of Charleston -0.95415
166 North Dakota State -0.97004
167 Norfolk State -1.02404
168 Youngstown State -1.03084
169 Utah Valley University -1.03637
170 McNeese State -1.05060
171 Texas-El Paso -1.08248
172 Wake Forest -1.12625
173 Columbia -1.14010
174 Charleston Southern -1.16387
175 Tennessee Tech -1.20954
176 Holy Cross -1.21413
177 South Alabama -1.22676
178 Quinnipiac -1.28413
179 Albany -1.29204
180 Northwestern State -1.29861
181 Boston University -1.31072
182 Western Michigan -1.33390
183 North Florida -1.36519
184 Idaho -1.42174
185 Georgia Tech -1.50296
186 Fordham -1.50660
187 Georgia Southern -1.57532
188 Wofford -1.58208
189 Campbell -1.59959
190 Northeastern -1.60926
191 Utah State -1.61352
192 St. Francis (NY) -1.62290
193 Wright State -1.64860
194 Hawaii -1.65769
195 South Carolina -1.65990
196 North Texas -1.68705
197 Morehead State -1.68946
198 Coastal Carolina -1.70105
199 Eastern Kentucky -1.72666
200 East Carolina -1.72973
201 Texas Southern -1.84088
202 Portland State -1.84172
203 George Washington -1.88101
204 Florida Atlantic -1.89648
205 Niagara -1.91170
206 Texas Tech -1.92471
207 Florida Gulf Coast -1.95375
208 Arkansas-Little Rock -1.97585
209 Houston -1.97641
210 Louisiana Tech -2.01230
211 Lafayette -2.02595
212 Marist -2.03524
213 Fresno State -2.04867
214 Western Illinois -2.06308
215 East Tennessee State -2.08621
216 Texas-San Antonio -2.10293
217 Arkansas State -2.13425
218 Central Connecticut State -2.15723
219 Siena -2.20301
220 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.21045
221 Lipscomb -2.25927
222 Boston College -2.26204
223 Delaware State -2.28792
224 Cal Poly -2.37480
225 Virginia Military Institute -2.37489
226 Eastern Washington -2.39193
227 Eastern Michigan -2.41560
228 Cal State Bakersfield -2.42584
229 San Diego -2.42614
230 Coppin State -2.42913
231 Bethune-Cookman -2.43419
232 Southern Methodist -2.44337
233 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.47590
234 Rider -2.50369
235 Ball State -2.51863
236 Austin Peay -2.54526
237 Southern Utah -2.63174
238 Elon -2.68547
239 Southeast Missouri State -2.69993
240 Southern University -2.71751
241 North Carolina Central -2.74001
242 USC -2.80286
243 Stephen F. Austin -2.80731
244 Sacred Heart -2.81251
245 Southern Illinois -2.85049
246 IUPUI -2.92136
247 North Dakota -2.94764
248 Jacksonville State -2.98969
249 Hofstra -3.01970
250 Monmouth -3.10692
251 Miami (OH) -3.11757
252 Idaho State -3.13554
253 Western Carolina -3.13618
254 James Madison -3.21166
255 Furman -3.23516
256 Bradley -3.23657
257 IPFW -3.30576
258 Texas-Pan American -3.36414
259 Arizona State -3.36803
260 Alabama State -3.38688
261 Portland -3.38899
262 Toledo -3.39851
263 Sam Houston State -3.47669
264 Prairie View A&M -3.48242
265 UC Riverside -3.53783
266 Central Michigan -3.56869
267 Rhode Island -3.57370
268 Appalachian State -3.57674
269 Army -3.58937
270 Gardner-Webb -3.60981
271 New Jersey Tech -3.65329
272 Santa Clara -3.74753
273 North Carolina A&T -3.74767
274 UC Irvine -3.83976
275 Southeastern Louisiana -3.85132
276 Stetson -3.86935
277 Pepperdine -3.88579
278 Western Kentucky -3.96082
279 Pacific -3.98874
280 New Hampshire -4.02003
281 Northern Colorado -4.02821
282 Texas State -4.05981
283 Missouri-Kansas City -4.07655
284 Utah -4.07761
285 UIC -4.10952
286 High Point -4.15889
287 Jacksonville -4.16153
288 San Jose State -4.17082
289 Seattle -4.20799
290 Nicholls State -4.29624
291 Samford -4.30272
292 Eastern Illinois -4.32393
293 Presbyterian -4.32875
294 Maine -4.41034
295 Loyola (Chicago) -4.44598
296 Howard -4.46343
297 South Dakota -4.46723
298 Troy -4.53006
299 Chattanooga -4.54722
300 Alcorn State -4.59865
301 Montana State -4.61529
302 Florida International -4.65287
303 Jackson State -4.66183
304 Hampton -4.67050
305 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.73447
306 Colgate -4.75193
307 Mount St. Mary's -4.76170
308 St. Peter's -4.76640
309 Liberty -4.80034
310 Houston Baptist -4.90710
311 Maryland-Eastern Shore -4.98584
312 Brown -5.00679
313 St. Francis (PA) -5.18778
314 Central Arkansas -5.19409
315 Alabama A&M -5.24003
316 Hartford -5.26908
317 William & Mary -5.29200
318 Dartmouth -5.33505
319 Morgan State -5.43701
320 Longwood -5.52955
321 Winthrop -5.57552
322 Cal State Northridge -5.67733
323 Towson -5.76847
324 Sacramento State -5.79179
325 SIU Edwardsville -5.93681
326 Florida A&M -6.00204
327 Canisius -6.24535
328 Chicago State -6.26563
329 Kennesaw State -6.30808
330 Radford -6.41288
331 South Carolina State -6.52692
332 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -6.83995
333 Northern Arizona -7.15071
334 Bryant -7.15251
335 Citadel -7.15785
336 Tennessee-Martin -7.19597
337 Northern Illinois -7.37150
338 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.55871
339 Grambling State -7.62938
340 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.68489
341 UC Davis -7.71938
342 Louisiana-Monroe -7.85486
343 Navy -7.94722
344 Binghamton -9.94296
Deconstructing False Narratives: Obama utilizes much of Simpson-Bowles
Multiple 2008 Obama supporters I know have argued that President Obama's latest budget is much like the Simpson-Bowles proposal. It is not, and in fact, goes in a different direction. Here are major differences between Simpson-Bowles (S-B going forward) and Mr. Obama.
Taxes
S-B:
Eliminate all tax expenditures—for both income and payroll taxes—except for the child credit, the earned income tax credit, foreign tax credits, a few less common preferences (retain reduced preferences for mortgage interest, employer-sponsered health insurance and reitrement savings in the third variant listed above).
Eliminate the alternative minimum tax (AMT).
Eliminate the phaseout of personal exemptions and the limitation of itemized deductions.
Replace the current six-bracket individual tax rate schedule with a three-bracket schedule with rates of 9, 15, and 24 percent (12, 20, and 27 percent in the third variant listed above).
Tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income.
Index tax parameters using the chained Consumer Price Index.
Increase the Social Security wage base by 2 percent per year more than the growth in the average wage (making the FICA cap $140,100 in 2015).
Phase in an increase in the federal excise tax on gasoline of 15 cents per gallon (13.5 cents per gallon on average in 2015).
Eliminate corporate tax expenditures and reduce the corporate tax rate to 26 percent (27 percent in the third variant listed above).
Source: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Bowles_Simpson_Brief.cfm
President Obama:
-Anyone making $1,000,000 pays a 30 percent tax rate minimum.
-The president wants to make the Bush tax cuts permanent for anyone making less than $200,000 ($250,000 for couples)
-Seeks to expand and/or make permanent the Making Work Pay Credit, Earned Income Credit, Child Tax Credit.
-Seeks to increase top two marginal tax rates to 39.6 and 35% from 36% and 33% respectively.
-Increase Capital Gains Tax to 20% from 15% for top two tax brackets.
-Seeks to levy new fees on banks to pay for government funded mortgage re-finances.
-CNN claims Obama's business tax record is mixed in terms of hikes and cuts.
-According to CNN "serious tax policy experts will continue to beat their head against the wall because the president has done nothing to simplify the code"
Sources:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/30/obama-tax-plan-elections-2012_n_1241277.html
http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/30/news/economy/Obama_tax_record/index.htm
Discretionary and Military Spending
When comparing the S-B Proposal vs Preisdent Obama's proposal, the S-B proposal offers about $750 Billion in discretionary and military spending cuts over and above what the president proposes. The vast majority of this comes from military spending.
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-republicans-like-simpson-bowles/2011/08/25/gIQAx3IClN_blog.html
Social Security and Medicare
S-B:
Simpson-Bowles would reduce Social Security benefits largely by raising the age eligible for benefits. Because S-B also raises the Social Security tax cap and introduces all newly hired state-local workers into the system, this increases the likelihood of solvency for the program. According to the Committee for a Responsible Budget, Simpson-Bowles would save $100 Billion more in Health Care Expenses over the President's proposal over the next ten years (already included in the calculation under discretionary and military spending). Simpson-Bowles does not address Medicare substantially in any other way.
Source: http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3402
President Obama:
Supported the recently signed payroll tax deal, reducing the social security tax from 6.2% to 4.2% temporarily. Has levied an additional .9% investment tax on wealthy individuals (likely earning > $200,000 or $250,000). http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/30/news/economy/Obama_tax_record/index.htm
Impact on Debt and Deficits:
As of the publishing of the S-B Report, the national Debt stood at 67% of GDP. If Simpson-Bowles were to be instituted in it's entirety, the Report on the National Commission of Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, estimates that by 2025, the debt would fall to 55% of GDP.
In regards to President Obama, three numbers to keep in mind are:
1) $15 Trillion. This is the United States GDP according to the World Bank.
2) $4 Trillion. This is what many news outlets have been reporting as the amount Obama would shave off the deficit over 10 years. The problem, is that that $4 trillion isn't the amount the debt will be reduced by, it represents the figure that the debt will be reduced by in comparison to doing nothing.
3) $15.36 Trillion. This is approximately the US debt as of this writing.
Going back to S-B for just a minute, if we shave 12 percentage points off the debt to gdp ratio in today's dollars (this is a reasonable estimation of what they propose), the national debt would be $13.5 Trillion present-day dollars in 2025. The president's budget would add $6.6 Trillion to the debt over the next ten years by their own calculations, making the debt $22 Trillion Dollars.
For Obama's debt-reduction plan to achieve the comparable present-value impacts of Simpson-Bowles, the US GDP would have to be $24 Trillion in ten years - this represents a 60% growth in US GDP over the next ten years. This may be difficult, because from 2000 to 2010, the US GDP expanded by just 45%, however in the prior ten years, US GDP expanded by the growth rate needed.
Source: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_2000_2010USb_13s1li011mcn__US_Gross_Domestic_Product_GDP_History
This is certainly doable and isn't to say that the President's budget doesn't make an impact on the long term financial stability of the country, because it may (if growth picks up) - but it is dependent on a much more robust economy than presently exists.
However, saying that the President's Budget implements Simpson-Bowles is a decidedly false narrative because even if it effectively achieves the same result, it does so in a substantially different way, without simplification of the tax code.
Taxes
S-B:
Eliminate all tax expenditures—for both income and payroll taxes—except for the child credit, the earned income tax credit, foreign tax credits, a few less common preferences (retain reduced preferences for mortgage interest, employer-sponsered health insurance and reitrement savings in the third variant listed above).
Eliminate the alternative minimum tax (AMT).
Eliminate the phaseout of personal exemptions and the limitation of itemized deductions.
Replace the current six-bracket individual tax rate schedule with a three-bracket schedule with rates of 9, 15, and 24 percent (12, 20, and 27 percent in the third variant listed above).
Tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income.
Index tax parameters using the chained Consumer Price Index.
Increase the Social Security wage base by 2 percent per year more than the growth in the average wage (making the FICA cap $140,100 in 2015).
Phase in an increase in the federal excise tax on gasoline of 15 cents per gallon (13.5 cents per gallon on average in 2015).
Eliminate corporate tax expenditures and reduce the corporate tax rate to 26 percent (27 percent in the third variant listed above).
Source: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Bowles_Simpson_Brief.cfm
President Obama:
-Anyone making $1,000,000 pays a 30 percent tax rate minimum.
-The president wants to make the Bush tax cuts permanent for anyone making less than $200,000 ($250,000 for couples)
-Seeks to expand and/or make permanent the Making Work Pay Credit, Earned Income Credit, Child Tax Credit.
-Seeks to increase top two marginal tax rates to 39.6 and 35% from 36% and 33% respectively.
-Increase Capital Gains Tax to 20% from 15% for top two tax brackets.
-Seeks to levy new fees on banks to pay for government funded mortgage re-finances.
-CNN claims Obama's business tax record is mixed in terms of hikes and cuts.
-According to CNN "serious tax policy experts will continue to beat their head against the wall because the president has done nothing to simplify the code"
Sources:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/30/obama-tax-plan-elections-2012_n_1241277.html
http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/30/news/economy/Obama_tax_record/index.htm
Discretionary and Military Spending
When comparing the S-B Proposal vs Preisdent Obama's proposal, the S-B proposal offers about $750 Billion in discretionary and military spending cuts over and above what the president proposes. The vast majority of this comes from military spending.
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-republicans-like-simpson-bowles/2011/08/25/gIQAx3IClN_blog.html
Social Security and Medicare
S-B:
Simpson-Bowles would reduce Social Security benefits largely by raising the age eligible for benefits. Because S-B also raises the Social Security tax cap and introduces all newly hired state-local workers into the system, this increases the likelihood of solvency for the program. According to the Committee for a Responsible Budget, Simpson-Bowles would save $100 Billion more in Health Care Expenses over the President's proposal over the next ten years (already included in the calculation under discretionary and military spending). Simpson-Bowles does not address Medicare substantially in any other way.
Source: http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3402
President Obama:
Supported the recently signed payroll tax deal, reducing the social security tax from 6.2% to 4.2% temporarily. Has levied an additional .9% investment tax on wealthy individuals (likely earning > $200,000 or $250,000). http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/30/news/economy/Obama_tax_record/index.htm
Impact on Debt and Deficits:
As of the publishing of the S-B Report, the national Debt stood at 67% of GDP. If Simpson-Bowles were to be instituted in it's entirety, the Report on the National Commission of Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, estimates that by 2025, the debt would fall to 55% of GDP.
In regards to President Obama, three numbers to keep in mind are:
1) $15 Trillion. This is the United States GDP according to the World Bank.
2) $4 Trillion. This is what many news outlets have been reporting as the amount Obama would shave off the deficit over 10 years. The problem, is that that $4 trillion isn't the amount the debt will be reduced by, it represents the figure that the debt will be reduced by in comparison to doing nothing.
3) $15.36 Trillion. This is approximately the US debt as of this writing.
Going back to S-B for just a minute, if we shave 12 percentage points off the debt to gdp ratio in today's dollars (this is a reasonable estimation of what they propose), the national debt would be $13.5 Trillion present-day dollars in 2025. The president's budget would add $6.6 Trillion to the debt over the next ten years by their own calculations, making the debt $22 Trillion Dollars.
For Obama's debt-reduction plan to achieve the comparable present-value impacts of Simpson-Bowles, the US GDP would have to be $24 Trillion in ten years - this represents a 60% growth in US GDP over the next ten years. This may be difficult, because from 2000 to 2010, the US GDP expanded by just 45%, however in the prior ten years, US GDP expanded by the growth rate needed.
Source: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_2000_2010USb_13s1li011mcn__US_Gross_Domestic_Product_GDP_History
This is certainly doable and isn't to say that the President's budget doesn't make an impact on the long term financial stability of the country, because it may (if growth picks up) - but it is dependent on a much more robust economy than presently exists.
However, saying that the President's Budget implements Simpson-Bowles is a decidedly false narrative because even if it effectively achieves the same result, it does so in a substantially different way, without simplification of the tax code.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
CBB Rankings 2-12-12
Quick commentary before we get to the ranks:
Here is how I would break things off into tiers - looking at the top 4 group of teams which I would consider elite:
1 Syracuse 5.57327
2 Missouri 5.34246
3 Duke 5.32054
4 Kentucky 5.23717
These are your top 4 teams right now, and I think it's pretty clear cut.
5 Baylor 4.77607
6 Kansas 4.43584
7 Temple 4.30743
8 North Carolina 4.29263
These are your 4 enigmas, plus my favorite mid-major coming down the home stretch. Baylor, Kansas and UNC are all incredibly talented teams and have more talent than Duke Mizzou but their resumes aren't as impressive. I wouldn't really be shocked to see any of these teams win the title though. By the way - it's going to be a ballsy pick to advance Temple as far as my rankings suggest in your bracket, but I think you'll be well rewarded.
9 Ohio State 3.93140
10 Michigan State 3.91670
11 Louisville 3.84783
12 UNLV 3.82251
13 Georgetown 3.80076
14 Marquette 3.77000
These are your 6 really good teams that have their most optimistic fan bases convinced that their team will make a Final 4 run. All of these teams have some sort of flaw that doesn't get exposed in 85% of their games that will probably keep them from winning it all. But their all good enough to put the fear of God into a #1 seed, and I wouldn't be shocked if someone from this group made the Final 4, much less won it.
15 Wisconsin 3.58215
16 Southern Miss 3.56030
17 Wichita State 3.50552
18 Michigan 3.47868
19 Creighton 3.44638
20 Indiana 3.30467
The teams in this group think their as good as the previous group (and in the case of Southern Miss and Wichita, might be - hard to tell with the mid-majors) but their not as polished and/or have greater crap the bed potential (re: Upset Alert presented to you by Gus Johnson) and/or lack the horses/depth of the above teams.
The rest of the rankings:
21 Gonzaga 3.11140
22 Virginia 3.08653
23 San Diego State 3.03990
24 Harvard 3.02138
25 Vanderbilt 2.96365
26 Saint Mary's 2.87574
27 Notre Dame 2.87516
28 Saint Louis 2.85709
29 Seton Hall 2.74711
30 Connecticut 2.70943
31 Florida 2.57716
32 Alabama 2.52870
33 Florida State 2.51733
34 New Mexico 2.49276
35 Kansas State 2.47616
36 Memphis 2.47338
37 West Virginia 2.45165
38 Purdue 2.41947
39 Mississippi State 2.39208
40 Murray State 2.35353
41 Illinois 2.30976
42 Minnesota 2.22706
43 Northwestern 2.20237
44 Xavier 2.15835
45 Brigham Young 2.08628
46 Iona 2.07992
47 California 2.05630
48 Middle Tennessee State 2.03723
49 Ole Miss 1.96606
50 Virginia Commonwealth 1.95913
51 Arizona 1.94220
52 Miami (FL) 1.93328
53 Cleveland State 1.89475
54 Cincinnati 1.89390
55 NC State 1.88690
56 Akron 1.84706
57 Oral Roberts 1.84055
58 Drexel 1.80364
59 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.78750
60 Iowa State 1.75429
61 Wagner 1.73180
62 Massachusetts 1.69174
63 Long Beach State 1.69141
64 Nevada 1.51068
65 UCF 1.44817
66 Bucknell 1.42409
67 Colorado State 1.41926
68 Northern Iowa 1.39840
69 Denver 1.39139
70 Wyoming 1.35962
71 Oregon 1.35403
72 Loyola (MD) 1.33711
73 Pittsburgh 1.32153
74 LSU 1.30366
75 Texas 1.26883
76 Dayton 1.24454
77 Washington 1.23871
78 Kent State 1.21448
79 Buffalo 1.21207
80 Davidson 1.17305
81 La Salle 1.16787
82 South Florida 1.16636
83 South Dakota State 1.16510
84 Arkansas 1.12648
85 Missouri State 1.09747
86 Colorado 1.07592
87 George Mason 0.97908
88 Stanford 0.93533
89 Duquesne 0.91585
90 St. Bonaventure 0.89673
91 Maryland 0.88533
92 Texas-Arlington 0.87497
93 Weber State 0.87388
94 Marshall 0.86912
95 Ohio 0.83703
96 Belmont 0.82639
97 Mercer 0.75878
98 Long Island 0.71971
99 Georgia 0.65953
100 Yale 0.65896
101 UCLA 0.65115
102 Montana 0.64826
103 New Mexico State 0.62556
104 Robert Morris 0.60164
105 Tennessee 0.58594
106 Lehigh 0.57226
107 Oklahoma State 0.43425
108 Princeton 0.37814
109 Iowa 0.33106
110 Valparaiso 0.31441
111 TCU 0.29814
112 Virginia Tech 0.28227
113 Drake 0.27282
114 Charlotte 0.25894
115 Loyola Marymount 0.22262
116 Nebraska 0.21755
117 Pennsylvania 0.17706
118 Manhattan 0.15926
119 Auburn 0.13509
120 Rutgers 0.09390
121 Providence 0.07683
122 Villanova 0.06586
123 Oklahoma 0.05910
124 American University 0.05225
125 Richmond 0.00987
126 Indiana State -0.01638
127 Oregon State -0.06191
128 Mississippi Valley State -0.07469
129 North Carolina-Asheville -0.11211
130 Old Dominion -0.11413
131 Illinois State -0.11529
132 Georgia State -0.18443
133 Butler -0.23360
134 Fairfield -0.23774
135 Penn State -0.25565
136 Lamar -0.26643
137 Texas A&M -0.38057
138 DePaul -0.38644
139 Tulsa -0.40264
140 UC-Santa Barbara -0.43838
141 UAB -0.47319
142 Milwaukee -0.47741
143 Stony Brook -0.55104
144 Tulane -0.56375
145 USC Upstate -0.56842
146 San Francisco -0.57953
147 Bowling Green -0.63049
148 Vermont -0.63245
149 Norfolk State -0.64663
150 Rice -0.65175
151 Evansville -0.68156
152 St. John's -0.68432
153 Cornell -0.69675
154 Cal State Fullerton -0.71283
155 Detroit -0.71450
156 Youngstown State -0.73768
157 Savannah State -0.74146
158 Washington State -0.75560
159 Green Bay -0.82497
160 Louisiana -0.83895
161 Tennessee State -0.84363
162 Oakland -0.85131
163 South Alabama -0.90635
164 Boston University -0.94221
165 Air Force -0.99656
166 Boise State -1.02144
167 Delaware -1.04185
168 Northwestern State -1.04482
169 Utah Valley University -1.06017
170 Clemson -1.06693
171 College of Charleston -1.08533
172 Wake Forest -1.08906
173 North Florida -1.14904
174 North Dakota State -1.15950
175 Campbell -1.16766
176 Utah State -1.17966
177 Georgia Tech -1.25149
178 Quinnipiac -1.29192
179 Albany -1.29375
180 Idaho -1.36388
181 Columbia -1.38027
182 Florida Gulf Coast -1.38991
183 Northeastern -1.40005
184 Charleston Southern -1.40332
185 North Texas -1.40607
186 McNeese State -1.44359
187 Georgia Southern -1.44672
188 Fordham -1.45613
189 Wofford -1.46068
190 Coastal Carolina -1.50413
191 Western Michigan -1.52966
192 Hawaii -1.56100
193 Wright State -1.57982
194 Florida Atlantic -1.59529
195 Texas-El Paso -1.60757
196 Tennessee Tech -1.66736
197 East Tennessee State -1.68253
198 Holy Cross -1.72373
199 East Carolina -1.73396
200 Texas Tech -1.76658
201 Portland State -1.78536
202 Arkansas-Little Rock -1.79924
203 George Washington -1.80814
204 Louisiana Tech -1.84126
205 Lipscomb -1.84637
206 Lafayette -1.85321
207 Fresno State -1.89693
208 Cal Poly -1.89727
209 Morehead State -1.91499
210 South Carolina -1.94250
211 Niagara -2.00074
212 Coppin State -2.03188
213 Elon -2.05045
214 St. Francis (NY) -2.05382
215 Eastern Kentucky -2.05847
216 Ball State -2.07014
217 Texas-San Antonio -2.13176
218 Eastern Michigan -2.13686
219 Eastern Washington -2.14582
220 Arkansas State -2.17005
221 Houston -2.17103
222 Texas Southern -2.18900
223 Southern Methodist -2.18967
224 Western Illinois -2.20160
225 Southern Utah -2.27320
226 Boston College -2.29206
227 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.33659
228 Virginia Military Institute -2.35785
229 Rider -2.39603
230 Delaware State -2.40648
231 San Diego -2.44144
232 Southeast Missouri State -2.45835
233 Stephen F. Austin -2.49025
234 Cal State Bakersfield -2.49985
235 Siena -2.50673
236 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.50791
237 Southern Illinois -2.52986
238 Central Connecticut State -2.60591
239 Austin Peay -2.64852
240 Bradley -2.66068
241 USC -2.67796
242 Southern University -2.72323
243 Bethune-Cookman -2.81634
244 North Carolina A&T -2.81740
245 Idaho State -2.87988
246 James Madison -2.90714
247 Furman -2.93732
248 Marist -2.94756
249 North Carolina Central -2.97130
250 UC Riverside -2.97966
251 IPFW -2.99220
252 Miami (OH) -3.03679
253 Portland -3.13158
254 North Dakota -3.13387
255 Sam Houston State -3.16860
256 Sacred Heart -3.20804
257 Jacksonville State -3.25115
258 IUPUI -3.27574
259 Arizona State -3.28880
260 Santa Clara -3.32120
261 New Jersey Tech -3.32959
262 Central Michigan -3.38236
263 Hofstra -3.39712
264 Troy -3.40026
265 UC Irvine -3.41400
266 Missouri-Kansas City -3.43807
267 Winthrop -3.46579
268 Western Carolina -3.49845
269 Pepperdine -3.50271
270 Appalachian State -3.52988
271 Rhode Island -3.53162
272 Monmouth -3.56184
273 Gardner-Webb -3.67488
274 Maine -3.73302
275 Army -3.73636
276 South Dakota -3.76188
277 Alabama State -3.76983
278 Nicholls State -3.80200
279 Toledo -3.82426
280 Prairie View A&M -3.82661
281 Northern Colorado -3.89083
282 Chattanooga -3.93956
283 Texas-Pan American -3.94452
284 Utah -3.94675
285 Western Kentucky -3.95810
286 Pacific -3.98684
287 San Jose State -4.02561
288 High Point -4.08808
289 Southeastern Louisiana -4.15247
290 Florida International -4.18499
291 Stetson -4.19107
292 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.19786
293 Presbyterian -4.38618
294 UIC -4.40907
295 Maryland-Eastern Shore -4.42936
296 Eastern Illinois -4.43559
297 Howard -4.49198
298 Montana State -4.52127
299 Seattle -4.55721
300 Samford -4.59328
301 Loyola (Chicago) -4.60771
302 St. Peter's -4.64615
303 Jackson State -4.64753
304 Houston Baptist -4.65669
305 Alcorn State -4.68210
306 Texas State -4.68597
307 Jacksonville -4.72580
308 Colgate -4.81160
309 Liberty -4.84997
310 Alabama A&M -4.93257
311 Hampton -4.93771
312 New Hampshire -4.95438
313 Sacramento State -5.02233
314 Central Arkansas -5.06444
315 Mount St. Mary's -5.09284
316 Longwood -5.21284
317 Cal State Northridge -5.26138
318 St. Francis (PA) -5.28554
319 Brown -5.35636
320 Morgan State -5.38694
321 William & Mary -5.41637
322 Florida A&M -5.78449
323 Dartmouth -5.80613
324 Kennesaw State -5.80778
325 Towson -5.85204
326 South Carolina State -5.99526
327 Hartford -6.27194
328 SIU Edwardsville -6.50029
329 Chicago State -6.56123
330 Radford -6.69883
331 Canisius -6.85829
332 Northern Arizona -6.90258
333 Grambling State -6.90545
334 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -7.05738
335 Northern Illinois -7.12913
336 Citadel -7.36524
337 Bryant -7.56167
338 Louisiana-Monroe -7.70052
339 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.89260
340 Tennessee-Martin -7.93458
341 UC Davis -8.26288
342 Navy -8.30560
343 Fairleigh Dickinson -8.36341
344 Binghamton -9.77273
Here is how I would break things off into tiers - looking at the top 4 group of teams which I would consider elite:
1 Syracuse 5.57327
2 Missouri 5.34246
3 Duke 5.32054
4 Kentucky 5.23717
These are your top 4 teams right now, and I think it's pretty clear cut.
5 Baylor 4.77607
6 Kansas 4.43584
7 Temple 4.30743
8 North Carolina 4.29263
These are your 4 enigmas, plus my favorite mid-major coming down the home stretch. Baylor, Kansas and UNC are all incredibly talented teams and have more talent than Duke Mizzou but their resumes aren't as impressive. I wouldn't really be shocked to see any of these teams win the title though. By the way - it's going to be a ballsy pick to advance Temple as far as my rankings suggest in your bracket, but I think you'll be well rewarded.
9 Ohio State 3.93140
10 Michigan State 3.91670
11 Louisville 3.84783
12 UNLV 3.82251
13 Georgetown 3.80076
14 Marquette 3.77000
These are your 6 really good teams that have their most optimistic fan bases convinced that their team will make a Final 4 run. All of these teams have some sort of flaw that doesn't get exposed in 85% of their games that will probably keep them from winning it all. But their all good enough to put the fear of God into a #1 seed, and I wouldn't be shocked if someone from this group made the Final 4, much less won it.
15 Wisconsin 3.58215
16 Southern Miss 3.56030
17 Wichita State 3.50552
18 Michigan 3.47868
19 Creighton 3.44638
20 Indiana 3.30467
The teams in this group think their as good as the previous group (and in the case of Southern Miss and Wichita, might be - hard to tell with the mid-majors) but their not as polished and/or have greater crap the bed potential (re: Upset Alert presented to you by Gus Johnson) and/or lack the horses/depth of the above teams.
The rest of the rankings:
21 Gonzaga 3.11140
22 Virginia 3.08653
23 San Diego State 3.03990
24 Harvard 3.02138
25 Vanderbilt 2.96365
26 Saint Mary's 2.87574
27 Notre Dame 2.87516
28 Saint Louis 2.85709
29 Seton Hall 2.74711
30 Connecticut 2.70943
31 Florida 2.57716
32 Alabama 2.52870
33 Florida State 2.51733
34 New Mexico 2.49276
35 Kansas State 2.47616
36 Memphis 2.47338
37 West Virginia 2.45165
38 Purdue 2.41947
39 Mississippi State 2.39208
40 Murray State 2.35353
41 Illinois 2.30976
42 Minnesota 2.22706
43 Northwestern 2.20237
44 Xavier 2.15835
45 Brigham Young 2.08628
46 Iona 2.07992
47 California 2.05630
48 Middle Tennessee State 2.03723
49 Ole Miss 1.96606
50 Virginia Commonwealth 1.95913
51 Arizona 1.94220
52 Miami (FL) 1.93328
53 Cleveland State 1.89475
54 Cincinnati 1.89390
55 NC State 1.88690
56 Akron 1.84706
57 Oral Roberts 1.84055
58 Drexel 1.80364
59 St. Joseph's (PA) 1.78750
60 Iowa State 1.75429
61 Wagner 1.73180
62 Massachusetts 1.69174
63 Long Beach State 1.69141
64 Nevada 1.51068
65 UCF 1.44817
66 Bucknell 1.42409
67 Colorado State 1.41926
68 Northern Iowa 1.39840
69 Denver 1.39139
70 Wyoming 1.35962
71 Oregon 1.35403
72 Loyola (MD) 1.33711
73 Pittsburgh 1.32153
74 LSU 1.30366
75 Texas 1.26883
76 Dayton 1.24454
77 Washington 1.23871
78 Kent State 1.21448
79 Buffalo 1.21207
80 Davidson 1.17305
81 La Salle 1.16787
82 South Florida 1.16636
83 South Dakota State 1.16510
84 Arkansas 1.12648
85 Missouri State 1.09747
86 Colorado 1.07592
87 George Mason 0.97908
88 Stanford 0.93533
89 Duquesne 0.91585
90 St. Bonaventure 0.89673
91 Maryland 0.88533
92 Texas-Arlington 0.87497
93 Weber State 0.87388
94 Marshall 0.86912
95 Ohio 0.83703
96 Belmont 0.82639
97 Mercer 0.75878
98 Long Island 0.71971
99 Georgia 0.65953
100 Yale 0.65896
101 UCLA 0.65115
102 Montana 0.64826
103 New Mexico State 0.62556
104 Robert Morris 0.60164
105 Tennessee 0.58594
106 Lehigh 0.57226
107 Oklahoma State 0.43425
108 Princeton 0.37814
109 Iowa 0.33106
110 Valparaiso 0.31441
111 TCU 0.29814
112 Virginia Tech 0.28227
113 Drake 0.27282
114 Charlotte 0.25894
115 Loyola Marymount 0.22262
116 Nebraska 0.21755
117 Pennsylvania 0.17706
118 Manhattan 0.15926
119 Auburn 0.13509
120 Rutgers 0.09390
121 Providence 0.07683
122 Villanova 0.06586
123 Oklahoma 0.05910
124 American University 0.05225
125 Richmond 0.00987
126 Indiana State -0.01638
127 Oregon State -0.06191
128 Mississippi Valley State -0.07469
129 North Carolina-Asheville -0.11211
130 Old Dominion -0.11413
131 Illinois State -0.11529
132 Georgia State -0.18443
133 Butler -0.23360
134 Fairfield -0.23774
135 Penn State -0.25565
136 Lamar -0.26643
137 Texas A&M -0.38057
138 DePaul -0.38644
139 Tulsa -0.40264
140 UC-Santa Barbara -0.43838
141 UAB -0.47319
142 Milwaukee -0.47741
143 Stony Brook -0.55104
144 Tulane -0.56375
145 USC Upstate -0.56842
146 San Francisco -0.57953
147 Bowling Green -0.63049
148 Vermont -0.63245
149 Norfolk State -0.64663
150 Rice -0.65175
151 Evansville -0.68156
152 St. John's -0.68432
153 Cornell -0.69675
154 Cal State Fullerton -0.71283
155 Detroit -0.71450
156 Youngstown State -0.73768
157 Savannah State -0.74146
158 Washington State -0.75560
159 Green Bay -0.82497
160 Louisiana -0.83895
161 Tennessee State -0.84363
162 Oakland -0.85131
163 South Alabama -0.90635
164 Boston University -0.94221
165 Air Force -0.99656
166 Boise State -1.02144
167 Delaware -1.04185
168 Northwestern State -1.04482
169 Utah Valley University -1.06017
170 Clemson -1.06693
171 College of Charleston -1.08533
172 Wake Forest -1.08906
173 North Florida -1.14904
174 North Dakota State -1.15950
175 Campbell -1.16766
176 Utah State -1.17966
177 Georgia Tech -1.25149
178 Quinnipiac -1.29192
179 Albany -1.29375
180 Idaho -1.36388
181 Columbia -1.38027
182 Florida Gulf Coast -1.38991
183 Northeastern -1.40005
184 Charleston Southern -1.40332
185 North Texas -1.40607
186 McNeese State -1.44359
187 Georgia Southern -1.44672
188 Fordham -1.45613
189 Wofford -1.46068
190 Coastal Carolina -1.50413
191 Western Michigan -1.52966
192 Hawaii -1.56100
193 Wright State -1.57982
194 Florida Atlantic -1.59529
195 Texas-El Paso -1.60757
196 Tennessee Tech -1.66736
197 East Tennessee State -1.68253
198 Holy Cross -1.72373
199 East Carolina -1.73396
200 Texas Tech -1.76658
201 Portland State -1.78536
202 Arkansas-Little Rock -1.79924
203 George Washington -1.80814
204 Louisiana Tech -1.84126
205 Lipscomb -1.84637
206 Lafayette -1.85321
207 Fresno State -1.89693
208 Cal Poly -1.89727
209 Morehead State -1.91499
210 South Carolina -1.94250
211 Niagara -2.00074
212 Coppin State -2.03188
213 Elon -2.05045
214 St. Francis (NY) -2.05382
215 Eastern Kentucky -2.05847
216 Ball State -2.07014
217 Texas-San Antonio -2.13176
218 Eastern Michigan -2.13686
219 Eastern Washington -2.14582
220 Arkansas State -2.17005
221 Houston -2.17103
222 Texas Southern -2.18900
223 Southern Methodist -2.18967
224 Western Illinois -2.20160
225 Southern Utah -2.27320
226 Boston College -2.29206
227 North Carolina-Greensboro -2.33659
228 Virginia Military Institute -2.35785
229 Rider -2.39603
230 Delaware State -2.40648
231 San Diego -2.44144
232 Southeast Missouri State -2.45835
233 Stephen F. Austin -2.49025
234 Cal State Bakersfield -2.49985
235 Siena -2.50673
236 North Carolina-Wilmington -2.50791
237 Southern Illinois -2.52986
238 Central Connecticut State -2.60591
239 Austin Peay -2.64852
240 Bradley -2.66068
241 USC -2.67796
242 Southern University -2.72323
243 Bethune-Cookman -2.81634
244 North Carolina A&T -2.81740
245 Idaho State -2.87988
246 James Madison -2.90714
247 Furman -2.93732
248 Marist -2.94756
249 North Carolina Central -2.97130
250 UC Riverside -2.97966
251 IPFW -2.99220
252 Miami (OH) -3.03679
253 Portland -3.13158
254 North Dakota -3.13387
255 Sam Houston State -3.16860
256 Sacred Heart -3.20804
257 Jacksonville State -3.25115
258 IUPUI -3.27574
259 Arizona State -3.28880
260 Santa Clara -3.32120
261 New Jersey Tech -3.32959
262 Central Michigan -3.38236
263 Hofstra -3.39712
264 Troy -3.40026
265 UC Irvine -3.41400
266 Missouri-Kansas City -3.43807
267 Winthrop -3.46579
268 Western Carolina -3.49845
269 Pepperdine -3.50271
270 Appalachian State -3.52988
271 Rhode Island -3.53162
272 Monmouth -3.56184
273 Gardner-Webb -3.67488
274 Maine -3.73302
275 Army -3.73636
276 South Dakota -3.76188
277 Alabama State -3.76983
278 Nicholls State -3.80200
279 Toledo -3.82426
280 Prairie View A&M -3.82661
281 Northern Colorado -3.89083
282 Chattanooga -3.93956
283 Texas-Pan American -3.94452
284 Utah -3.94675
285 Western Kentucky -3.95810
286 Pacific -3.98684
287 San Jose State -4.02561
288 High Point -4.08808
289 Southeastern Louisiana -4.15247
290 Florida International -4.18499
291 Stetson -4.19107
292 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.19786
293 Presbyterian -4.38618
294 UIC -4.40907
295 Maryland-Eastern Shore -4.42936
296 Eastern Illinois -4.43559
297 Howard -4.49198
298 Montana State -4.52127
299 Seattle -4.55721
300 Samford -4.59328
301 Loyola (Chicago) -4.60771
302 St. Peter's -4.64615
303 Jackson State -4.64753
304 Houston Baptist -4.65669
305 Alcorn State -4.68210
306 Texas State -4.68597
307 Jacksonville -4.72580
308 Colgate -4.81160
309 Liberty -4.84997
310 Alabama A&M -4.93257
311 Hampton -4.93771
312 New Hampshire -4.95438
313 Sacramento State -5.02233
314 Central Arkansas -5.06444
315 Mount St. Mary's -5.09284
316 Longwood -5.21284
317 Cal State Northridge -5.26138
318 St. Francis (PA) -5.28554
319 Brown -5.35636
320 Morgan State -5.38694
321 William & Mary -5.41637
322 Florida A&M -5.78449
323 Dartmouth -5.80613
324 Kennesaw State -5.80778
325 Towson -5.85204
326 South Carolina State -5.99526
327 Hartford -6.27194
328 SIU Edwardsville -6.50029
329 Chicago State -6.56123
330 Radford -6.69883
331 Canisius -6.85829
332 Northern Arizona -6.90258
333 Grambling State -6.90545
334 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -7.05738
335 Northern Illinois -7.12913
336 Citadel -7.36524
337 Bryant -7.56167
338 Louisiana-Monroe -7.70052
339 Maryland-Baltimore County -7.89260
340 Tennessee-Martin -7.93458
341 UC Davis -8.26288
342 Navy -8.30560
343 Fairleigh Dickinson -8.36341
344 Binghamton -9.77273
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Super Bowl underrated elements - excerpt from a letter to my wife (a Pats fan)
My post-game thoughts on underrated aspects of the game:
1) That was a well played game on both sides. On the way home, I was listening to the radio and they acted as if Brady choked the game away. 27/41, 276 2 TDs and an INT isn't a bad performance. The Giants WON the game, not the other way around. I know that in the core of the letter the NE WRs took a lot of heat, but I called out the worst of the bad plays.
2) Not to take away from the Giants (see above) but in the playoffs they recovered 7/9 of the fumbles that occurred, including all 3 of their own vs SF and NE. This just goes to show that luck is such a big part of football. If any of those fumbles go the other way, or if New England doesn’t have 12 men on the field, the Giants aren’t the champs. It’s also crazy to think about how many little things were the difference between the Giants getting in and not getting in at all. In the Dallas game, if Miles Austin doesn’t drop that ball in the stadium lights or if Cutler doesn’t get hurt, or if Philadelphia had managed to win just one more game or….a billion other things happen and the Giants aren’t even in the playoffs. I spent way too much time thinking about this on the way home.
3) The Giants WRs were unreal throughout the season and stepped it up last night. I can't remember a single error on their part, while 2 late errors from Welker and Branch doomed the Pats.
4) In the modern NFL playoffs, it's fairly obvious that you only need to do two things well: Pass the ball and rush the passer. The rest of it really doesn't seem to matter. A small handful of teams have more effective passing attacks than the Giants and a small number of teams have a more effective pass rush than the Giants, but no one really seems to have a better combination of the two. You’d think that New England would address this given that this is the 3rd straight year they have had a weak pass rush.
5) To build on point 4, given that the Patriots seem to have a billion draft picks every year (including this one and the past one), their draft from last year is incredibly puzzling and makes you really question the logic of BB. Nate Solder was the only player from their top 5 picks last year that had an impact of any sort this year and I really question the logic of drafting two running backs and then keeping them on the bench for the vast majority of the year. The defense has serious question marks and the lack of a big outside receiver is significant; New England has two first rounders and two second rounders.
6 has been intentionally omitted.
7) This wasn’t really an underrated issue but Gronkowski wasn’t able to do much (figured you'd want to know). The injury was too serious. Brady only threw to him 3 times, two short completions and the game’s only interception. On the interception – Brady got killed for this, but it wasn’t a terrible play. New England was at midfield and he had Grownkowski 1 on 1 down the center of the field against the Giants’ weakest linebacker. Ordinarily Gronkowski makes the play 9 times out of 10, but his ankle ended up keeping him from making the play. The Giants intercepted the ball at their 45; it was a low risk, high reward play – if Gronkowski catches it, you score (New England would have been ahead 24-12 at that point), and if it gets picked, it’s like a punt since it advances the ball 45 yards. What’s more, on the next drive Bradshaw fumbled (one of those fumbles that I alluded to earlier) at his own 5 yard line, but it bounced off 3 Patriots and the Giants recovered. If that ball goes the other way, the Pats take over, ahead 17-12 at the Giants’ 5 yard line. At that point the probability of a New England victory is extremely high. Just shows how fine the line between being a hero and getting skewered in the national media (which the Pats have) is.
1) That was a well played game on both sides. On the way home, I was listening to the radio and they acted as if Brady choked the game away. 27/41, 276 2 TDs and an INT isn't a bad performance. The Giants WON the game, not the other way around. I know that in the core of the letter the NE WRs took a lot of heat, but I called out the worst of the bad plays.
2) Not to take away from the Giants (see above) but in the playoffs they recovered 7/9 of the fumbles that occurred, including all 3 of their own vs SF and NE. This just goes to show that luck is such a big part of football. If any of those fumbles go the other way, or if New England doesn’t have 12 men on the field, the Giants aren’t the champs. It’s also crazy to think about how many little things were the difference between the Giants getting in and not getting in at all. In the Dallas game, if Miles Austin doesn’t drop that ball in the stadium lights or if Cutler doesn’t get hurt, or if Philadelphia had managed to win just one more game or….a billion other things happen and the Giants aren’t even in the playoffs. I spent way too much time thinking about this on the way home.
3) The Giants WRs were unreal throughout the season and stepped it up last night. I can't remember a single error on their part, while 2 late errors from Welker and Branch doomed the Pats.
4) In the modern NFL playoffs, it's fairly obvious that you only need to do two things well: Pass the ball and rush the passer. The rest of it really doesn't seem to matter. A small handful of teams have more effective passing attacks than the Giants and a small number of teams have a more effective pass rush than the Giants, but no one really seems to have a better combination of the two. You’d think that New England would address this given that this is the 3rd straight year they have had a weak pass rush.
5) To build on point 4, given that the Patriots seem to have a billion draft picks every year (including this one and the past one), their draft from last year is incredibly puzzling and makes you really question the logic of BB. Nate Solder was the only player from their top 5 picks last year that had an impact of any sort this year and I really question the logic of drafting two running backs and then keeping them on the bench for the vast majority of the year. The defense has serious question marks and the lack of a big outside receiver is significant; New England has two first rounders and two second rounders.
6 has been intentionally omitted.
7) This wasn’t really an underrated issue but Gronkowski wasn’t able to do much (figured you'd want to know). The injury was too serious. Brady only threw to him 3 times, two short completions and the game’s only interception. On the interception – Brady got killed for this, but it wasn’t a terrible play. New England was at midfield and he had Grownkowski 1 on 1 down the center of the field against the Giants’ weakest linebacker. Ordinarily Gronkowski makes the play 9 times out of 10, but his ankle ended up keeping him from making the play. The Giants intercepted the ball at their 45; it was a low risk, high reward play – if Gronkowski catches it, you score (New England would have been ahead 24-12 at that point), and if it gets picked, it’s like a punt since it advances the ball 45 yards. What’s more, on the next drive Bradshaw fumbled (one of those fumbles that I alluded to earlier) at his own 5 yard line, but it bounced off 3 Patriots and the Giants recovered. If that ball goes the other way, the Pats take over, ahead 17-12 at the Giants’ 5 yard line. At that point the probability of a New England victory is extremely high. Just shows how fine the line between being a hero and getting skewered in the national media (which the Pats have) is.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Why I'm not donating a dime to charity for the rest of my life
Due to a combination of my wife serving in the military, Romneygate, the disaster that Washington is creating and this insightful article by the Oracle of Omaha, I have been thinking about creating a will in a way that will have an impact on those that Amber and I care about plus a couple select non-profits that Amber and I care about. That thought process also led to the internal debate of 'should I donate to those charities now'?
However, when you do the math, you find that you can actually have the same (or greater) impact by saving and investing what you would have donated, and giving it away upon your exit from this planet.
Let's explain:
We have two generous and disciplined people. Person A is saving $6,750 a year for retirement and Person B is saving $7,000 a year for retirement. Both earn 6.5% annually on their savings and live in a world where there is 3% inflation. Both A and B started saving at age 25, and both will retire at age 65. Upon retiring, they will withdraw 5% of their savings annually, and it will continue growing at the same rate.
Additionally, every year person A and person B are managing to increase their savings by 2% while person A is also increasing their charitable donations by 2%.
Let's assume that person A and person B both die at age 80.
Here's what their situation looks like, in today's dollars:
A) They die with $359,000 present value dollars in assets. They have made $10,400 present value dollars in giving.
B) They die with $373,000 present value dollars in assets. They have made 0 present value dollars in charitable giving.
This means that if B increases their giving through their will to match A, he will still have $3,600 to split between leaving money to his heirs and charitable donations that A does not presently have. Additionally, B has a marginally smaller risk of not being able to cover an emergency AND was able to enjoy a higher standard of living in retirement.
Let's suppose both parties had more to save, and started saving $8,000 a year at age 25 using the same assumptions as above, except now, A donated $750 a year to charity - meaning that A is being more generous than before. Certainly, A will have a relatively lower standard of living compared to B than in our prior analysis but perhaps he will have made a bigger impact.
Under this scenario, A dies with $386,000 present value dollars in assets and have made $31,200 in present value charitable givings.
B dies with $425,000 present value dollars in assets and has not made any charitable givings.
Due to the time value of money, B has actually increased his delta - now if he gave the $31,200 off the top, he now has $7,800 additional present value dollars to play with to divvy up between his heirs and his favorite non-profits. His donations will have a larger impact than A's will.
This isn't an argument made out of selfishness, in regards to my own parents, or for my own living. One could think of giving as spending - every dollar spent today cannot be invested; the whole point of investing, per Buffett's article is to allow you to consume more tomorrow than you could today. If one spends less today, they can enjoy more tomorrow. By contrast, if one gives less today, they should be able to give more tomorrow.
This is a controversial position to take, but in lieu of donating, I'll talk with my wife about what 2 or 3 charities we would like to donate to at the end of our life, and in lieu of a donation, send them a note stating that we appreciate what they do and are setting aside X % of our estate for them in our will.
However, when you do the math, you find that you can actually have the same (or greater) impact by saving and investing what you would have donated, and giving it away upon your exit from this planet.
Let's explain:
We have two generous and disciplined people. Person A is saving $6,750 a year for retirement and Person B is saving $7,000 a year for retirement. Both earn 6.5% annually on their savings and live in a world where there is 3% inflation. Both A and B started saving at age 25, and both will retire at age 65. Upon retiring, they will withdraw 5% of their savings annually, and it will continue growing at the same rate.
Additionally, every year person A and person B are managing to increase their savings by 2% while person A is also increasing their charitable donations by 2%.
Let's assume that person A and person B both die at age 80.
Here's what their situation looks like, in today's dollars:
A) They die with $359,000 present value dollars in assets. They have made $10,400 present value dollars in giving.
B) They die with $373,000 present value dollars in assets. They have made 0 present value dollars in charitable giving.
This means that if B increases their giving through their will to match A, he will still have $3,600 to split between leaving money to his heirs and charitable donations that A does not presently have. Additionally, B has a marginally smaller risk of not being able to cover an emergency AND was able to enjoy a higher standard of living in retirement.
Let's suppose both parties had more to save, and started saving $8,000 a year at age 25 using the same assumptions as above, except now, A donated $750 a year to charity - meaning that A is being more generous than before. Certainly, A will have a relatively lower standard of living compared to B than in our prior analysis but perhaps he will have made a bigger impact.
Under this scenario, A dies with $386,000 present value dollars in assets and have made $31,200 in present value charitable givings.
B dies with $425,000 present value dollars in assets and has not made any charitable givings.
Due to the time value of money, B has actually increased his delta - now if he gave the $31,200 off the top, he now has $7,800 additional present value dollars to play with to divvy up between his heirs and his favorite non-profits. His donations will have a larger impact than A's will.
This isn't an argument made out of selfishness, in regards to my own parents, or for my own living. One could think of giving as spending - every dollar spent today cannot be invested; the whole point of investing, per Buffett's article is to allow you to consume more tomorrow than you could today. If one spends less today, they can enjoy more tomorrow. By contrast, if one gives less today, they should be able to give more tomorrow.
This is a controversial position to take, but in lieu of donating, I'll talk with my wife about what 2 or 3 charities we would like to donate to at the end of our life, and in lieu of a donation, send them a note stating that we appreciate what they do and are setting aside X % of our estate for them in our will.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
CBB Rankings through 2/5/12
1 Baylor
2 Syracuse
3 Duke
4 Kentucky
5 Missouri
6 Creighton
7 Kansas
8 Ohio State
9 Temple
10 Georgetown
11 Southern Miss
12 Marquette
13 Michigan State
14 UNLV
15 North Carolina
16 Wisconsin
17 San Diego State
18 Florida
19 Michigan
20 Louisville
21 Wichita State
22 West Virginia
23 Harvard
24 Saint Mary's
25 Murray State
26 Virginia
27 Connecticut
28 Vanderbilt
29 Indiana
30 Illinois
31 Kansas State
32 Alabama
33 Mississippi State
34 Florida State
35 Cleveland State
36 Seton Hall
37 Minnesota
38 New Mexico
39 Gonzaga
40 Notre Dame
41 Iowa State
42 Middle Tennessee State
43 Northwestern
44 Xavier
45 Saint Louis
46 Brigham Young
47 Ole Miss
48 Purdue
49 Iona
50 Memphis
51 Oral Roberts
52 Ohio
53 St. Joseph's (PA)
54 Miami (FL)
55 Virginia Commonwealth
56 Colorado State
57 Arizona
58 Akron
59 Massachusetts
60 Wagner
61 Northern Iowa
62 LSU
63 Cincinnati
64 Long Beach State
65 California
66 Drexel
67 Pittsburgh
68 Wyoming
69 La Salle
70 Missouri State
71 NC State
72 UCF
73 Arkansas
74 Dayton
75 Denver
76 Washington
77 Oklahoma
78 South Dakota State
79 Bucknell
80 Loyola (MD)
81 Davidson
82 Kent State
83 Oregon
84 Stanford
85 Nevada
86 St. Bonaventure
87 Buffalo
88 Marshall
89 Texas
90 Duquesne
91 Colorado
92 South Florida
93 George Mason
94 Lehigh
95 Weber State
96 Texas-Arlington
97 Belmont
98 Nebraska
99 Long Island
100 Yale
101 New Mexico State
102 Indiana State
103 Iowa
104 Maryland
105 Mercer
106 UCLA
107 Robert Morris
108 Auburn
109 Drake
110 Montana
111 Providence
112 Manhattan
113 Oklahoma State
114 American University
115 Oregon State
116 TCU
117 Rutgers
118 Virginia Tech
119 Richmond
120 Coastal Carolina
121 Pennsylvania
122 Lamar
123 Illinois State
124 Charlotte
125 Georgia State
126 North Carolina-Asheville
127 Villanova
128 Valparaiso
129 Old Dominion
130 Texas A&M
131 Tennessee
132 Loyola Marymount
133 DePaul
134 Princeton
135 Milwaukee
136 Georgia
137 Mississippi Valley State
138 Penn State
139 St. John's
140 Tulane
141 Tulsa
142 Norfolk State
143 Air Force
144 UC-Santa Barbara
145 Louisiana
146 Stony Brook
147 Northwestern State
148 Fairfield
149 San Francisco
150 Charleston Southern
151 Rice
152 Youngstown State
153 Oakland
154 Boise State
155 North Dakota State
156 Cal State Fullerton
157 Albany
158 Wake Forest
159 Vermont
160 Savannah State
161 USC Upstate
162 UAB
163 Washington State
164 Bowling Green
165 Utah State
166 Butler
167 Tennessee Tech
168 Evansville
169 Tennessee State
170 Green Bay
171 Clemson
172 Northeastern
173 Cornell
174 Georgia Tech
175 North Texas
176 North Florida
177 Boston University
178 Detroit
179 Florida Gulf Coast
180 Fordham
181 Columbia
182 Utah Valley University
183 Campbell
184 Western Michigan
185 Delaware
186 Coppin State
187 McNeese State
188 South Alabama
189 Hawaii
190 College of Charleston
191 Quinnipiac
192 Virginia Military Institute
193 East Carolina
194 Wofford
195 Wright State
196 Fresno State
197 Houston
198 Ball State
199 Texas-San Antonio
200 Idaho
201 Elon
202 Texas Tech
203 Morehead State
204 East Tennessee State
205 Southern Utah
206 Florida Atlantic
207 St. Francis (NY)
208 Eastern Kentucky
209 Georgia Southern
210 Texas-El Paso
211 Portland State
212 Lipscomb
213 South Carolina
214 Holy Cross
215 Western Illinois
216 Cal Poly
217 Southern Methodist
218 Arkansas State
219 Niagara
220 Central Connecticut State
221 George Washington
222 Southern University
223 Arkansas-Little Rock
224 Eastern Michigan
225 North Carolina Central
226 Louisiana Tech
227 San Diego
228 Texas Southern
229 Lafayette
230 Rider
231 Bethune-Cookman
232 Southern Illinois
233 USC
234 North Carolina-Wilmington
235 IPFW
236 Siena
237 Eastern Washington
238 Furman
239 Maine
240 Portland
241 Cal State Bakersfield
242 North Carolina-Greensboro
243 North Carolina A&T
244 Boston College
245 North Dakota
246 Bradley
247 New Jersey Tech
248 Southeast Missouri State
249 Marist
250 Idaho State
251 Miami (OH)
252 Santa Clara
253 Stephen F. Austin
254 Austin Peay
255 Gardner-Webb
256 Central Michigan
257 Arizona State
258 UC Riverside
259 Stetson
260 Pepperdine
261 Prairie View A&M
262 UC Irvine
263 Winthrop
264 Sam Houston State
265 James Madison
266 Army
267 Delaware State
268 Presbyterian
269 Western Carolina
270 Jacksonville State
271 Rhode Island
272 Utah
273 South Dakota
274 IUPUI
275 Missouri-Kansas City
276 Sacred Heart
277 Hofstra
278 Alabama State
279 Florida International
280 Pacific
281 Nicholls State
282 Monmouth
283 St. Peter's
284 Chattanooga
285 Appalachian State
286 San Jose State
287 Troy
288 Western Kentucky
289 Texas-Pan American
290 Northern Colorado
291 High Point
292 Morgan State
293 Longwood
294 UIC
295 Toledo
296 Southeastern Louisiana
297 Central Arkansas
298 Montana State
299 Alcorn State
300 Alabama A&M
301 Houston Baptist
302 Jackson State
303 Maryland-Eastern Shore
304 Eastern Illinois
305 Cal State Northridge
306 Samford
307 Colgate
308 New Hampshire
309 Howard
310 Liberty
311 Loyola (Chicago)
312 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
313 Texas State
314 Hampton
315 Jacksonville
316 St. Francis (PA)
317 Mount St. Mary's
318 Brown
319 Sacramento State
320 William & Mary
321 Seattle
322 Towson
323 Canisius
324 Kennesaw State
325 Florida A&M
326 South Carolina State
327 Chicago State
328 SIU Edwardsville
329 Dartmouth
330 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
331 Grambling State
332 Northern Arizona
333 Hartford
334 Bryant
335 Citadel
336 Radford
337 Maryland-Baltimore County
338 Louisiana-Monroe
339 Tennessee-Martin
340 Fairleigh Dickinson
341 Navy
342 Northern Illinois
343 UC Davis
344 Binghamton
2 Syracuse
3 Duke
4 Kentucky
5 Missouri
6 Creighton
7 Kansas
8 Ohio State
9 Temple
10 Georgetown
11 Southern Miss
12 Marquette
13 Michigan State
14 UNLV
15 North Carolina
16 Wisconsin
17 San Diego State
18 Florida
19 Michigan
20 Louisville
21 Wichita State
22 West Virginia
23 Harvard
24 Saint Mary's
25 Murray State
26 Virginia
27 Connecticut
28 Vanderbilt
29 Indiana
30 Illinois
31 Kansas State
32 Alabama
33 Mississippi State
34 Florida State
35 Cleveland State
36 Seton Hall
37 Minnesota
38 New Mexico
39 Gonzaga
40 Notre Dame
41 Iowa State
42 Middle Tennessee State
43 Northwestern
44 Xavier
45 Saint Louis
46 Brigham Young
47 Ole Miss
48 Purdue
49 Iona
50 Memphis
51 Oral Roberts
52 Ohio
53 St. Joseph's (PA)
54 Miami (FL)
55 Virginia Commonwealth
56 Colorado State
57 Arizona
58 Akron
59 Massachusetts
60 Wagner
61 Northern Iowa
62 LSU
63 Cincinnati
64 Long Beach State
65 California
66 Drexel
67 Pittsburgh
68 Wyoming
69 La Salle
70 Missouri State
71 NC State
72 UCF
73 Arkansas
74 Dayton
75 Denver
76 Washington
77 Oklahoma
78 South Dakota State
79 Bucknell
80 Loyola (MD)
81 Davidson
82 Kent State
83 Oregon
84 Stanford
85 Nevada
86 St. Bonaventure
87 Buffalo
88 Marshall
89 Texas
90 Duquesne
91 Colorado
92 South Florida
93 George Mason
94 Lehigh
95 Weber State
96 Texas-Arlington
97 Belmont
98 Nebraska
99 Long Island
100 Yale
101 New Mexico State
102 Indiana State
103 Iowa
104 Maryland
105 Mercer
106 UCLA
107 Robert Morris
108 Auburn
109 Drake
110 Montana
111 Providence
112 Manhattan
113 Oklahoma State
114 American University
115 Oregon State
116 TCU
117 Rutgers
118 Virginia Tech
119 Richmond
120 Coastal Carolina
121 Pennsylvania
122 Lamar
123 Illinois State
124 Charlotte
125 Georgia State
126 North Carolina-Asheville
127 Villanova
128 Valparaiso
129 Old Dominion
130 Texas A&M
131 Tennessee
132 Loyola Marymount
133 DePaul
134 Princeton
135 Milwaukee
136 Georgia
137 Mississippi Valley State
138 Penn State
139 St. John's
140 Tulane
141 Tulsa
142 Norfolk State
143 Air Force
144 UC-Santa Barbara
145 Louisiana
146 Stony Brook
147 Northwestern State
148 Fairfield
149 San Francisco
150 Charleston Southern
151 Rice
152 Youngstown State
153 Oakland
154 Boise State
155 North Dakota State
156 Cal State Fullerton
157 Albany
158 Wake Forest
159 Vermont
160 Savannah State
161 USC Upstate
162 UAB
163 Washington State
164 Bowling Green
165 Utah State
166 Butler
167 Tennessee Tech
168 Evansville
169 Tennessee State
170 Green Bay
171 Clemson
172 Northeastern
173 Cornell
174 Georgia Tech
175 North Texas
176 North Florida
177 Boston University
178 Detroit
179 Florida Gulf Coast
180 Fordham
181 Columbia
182 Utah Valley University
183 Campbell
184 Western Michigan
185 Delaware
186 Coppin State
187 McNeese State
188 South Alabama
189 Hawaii
190 College of Charleston
191 Quinnipiac
192 Virginia Military Institute
193 East Carolina
194 Wofford
195 Wright State
196 Fresno State
197 Houston
198 Ball State
199 Texas-San Antonio
200 Idaho
201 Elon
202 Texas Tech
203 Morehead State
204 East Tennessee State
205 Southern Utah
206 Florida Atlantic
207 St. Francis (NY)
208 Eastern Kentucky
209 Georgia Southern
210 Texas-El Paso
211 Portland State
212 Lipscomb
213 South Carolina
214 Holy Cross
215 Western Illinois
216 Cal Poly
217 Southern Methodist
218 Arkansas State
219 Niagara
220 Central Connecticut State
221 George Washington
222 Southern University
223 Arkansas-Little Rock
224 Eastern Michigan
225 North Carolina Central
226 Louisiana Tech
227 San Diego
228 Texas Southern
229 Lafayette
230 Rider
231 Bethune-Cookman
232 Southern Illinois
233 USC
234 North Carolina-Wilmington
235 IPFW
236 Siena
237 Eastern Washington
238 Furman
239 Maine
240 Portland
241 Cal State Bakersfield
242 North Carolina-Greensboro
243 North Carolina A&T
244 Boston College
245 North Dakota
246 Bradley
247 New Jersey Tech
248 Southeast Missouri State
249 Marist
250 Idaho State
251 Miami (OH)
252 Santa Clara
253 Stephen F. Austin
254 Austin Peay
255 Gardner-Webb
256 Central Michigan
257 Arizona State
258 UC Riverside
259 Stetson
260 Pepperdine
261 Prairie View A&M
262 UC Irvine
263 Winthrop
264 Sam Houston State
265 James Madison
266 Army
267 Delaware State
268 Presbyterian
269 Western Carolina
270 Jacksonville State
271 Rhode Island
272 Utah
273 South Dakota
274 IUPUI
275 Missouri-Kansas City
276 Sacred Heart
277 Hofstra
278 Alabama State
279 Florida International
280 Pacific
281 Nicholls State
282 Monmouth
283 St. Peter's
284 Chattanooga
285 Appalachian State
286 San Jose State
287 Troy
288 Western Kentucky
289 Texas-Pan American
290 Northern Colorado
291 High Point
292 Morgan State
293 Longwood
294 UIC
295 Toledo
296 Southeastern Louisiana
297 Central Arkansas
298 Montana State
299 Alcorn State
300 Alabama A&M
301 Houston Baptist
302 Jackson State
303 Maryland-Eastern Shore
304 Eastern Illinois
305 Cal State Northridge
306 Samford
307 Colgate
308 New Hampshire
309 Howard
310 Liberty
311 Loyola (Chicago)
312 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
313 Texas State
314 Hampton
315 Jacksonville
316 St. Francis (PA)
317 Mount St. Mary's
318 Brown
319 Sacramento State
320 William & Mary
321 Seattle
322 Towson
323 Canisius
324 Kennesaw State
325 Florida A&M
326 South Carolina State
327 Chicago State
328 SIU Edwardsville
329 Dartmouth
330 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
331 Grambling State
332 Northern Arizona
333 Hartford
334 Bryant
335 Citadel
336 Radford
337 Maryland-Baltimore County
338 Louisiana-Monroe
339 Tennessee-Martin
340 Fairleigh Dickinson
341 Navy
342 Northern Illinois
343 UC Davis
344 Binghamton
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Super Bowl Preview
The following is an excerpt from a letter to my wife, who is a huge Patriots fan and in military training.
I guess I’ll give you my Super Bowl thoughts.
If I’m New England, I come out running. The strength of the Giants is their pass rush and passing game. Running chews up the clock keeping the passing game out of it and slows down the pass rush. Last week my 49ers were pretty effective running the ball against the Giants and I feel like New England could do the same. According to footballoutsiders, New England had the 4th strongest rushing attack in the league and New York was middling against the run. This will wear down the pass rushers and allow New England to open it up offensively in the 2nd half against the Giants weak secondary. Gronkowski IS expected to play.
By contrast, I would take a more aggressive posture if I’m the Giants. I know New England’s secondary is weak and I would target it aggressively. I would throw the ball utilizing my excellent receiving corps and try and carve NE up and force them into a shootout where my pass rush can be more effective.
I feel like New England’s offensive line and secondary will determine the game. The offensive line is very good and must not allow the Giants’ pass rush to take over. If they are effective, it doesn’t matter if they have to throw and the media has overhyped Eli grossly. I have a coworker who is a very smart guy who went so far as to say Eli is better than Brady. Defensively, the secondary must be competent and not allow the Giants to score every time down the field. If they do those two things effectively, I don’t think there’s any way the Giants will win this game.
Prediction: This line has moved a full point in many sportsbooks in the Giants’ favor, suggesting that heavy money is coming in on the Giants’ side. The sportsbooks make money – the public loses money. I feel like New England’s offensive line will hold and that they will successfully execute the type of game plan I outlined. We’ve seen the Giants’ offense struggle in two of their three playoff games and their getting too much hype. New England 31 Giants 27
I guess I’ll give you my Super Bowl thoughts.
If I’m New England, I come out running. The strength of the Giants is their pass rush and passing game. Running chews up the clock keeping the passing game out of it and slows down the pass rush. Last week my 49ers were pretty effective running the ball against the Giants and I feel like New England could do the same. According to footballoutsiders, New England had the 4th strongest rushing attack in the league and New York was middling against the run. This will wear down the pass rushers and allow New England to open it up offensively in the 2nd half against the Giants weak secondary. Gronkowski IS expected to play.
By contrast, I would take a more aggressive posture if I’m the Giants. I know New England’s secondary is weak and I would target it aggressively. I would throw the ball utilizing my excellent receiving corps and try and carve NE up and force them into a shootout where my pass rush can be more effective.
I feel like New England’s offensive line and secondary will determine the game. The offensive line is very good and must not allow the Giants’ pass rush to take over. If they are effective, it doesn’t matter if they have to throw and the media has overhyped Eli grossly. I have a coworker who is a very smart guy who went so far as to say Eli is better than Brady. Defensively, the secondary must be competent and not allow the Giants to score every time down the field. If they do those two things effectively, I don’t think there’s any way the Giants will win this game.
Prediction: This line has moved a full point in many sportsbooks in the Giants’ favor, suggesting that heavy money is coming in on the Giants’ side. The sportsbooks make money – the public loses money. I feel like New England’s offensive line will hold and that they will successfully execute the type of game plan I outlined. We’ve seen the Giants’ offense struggle in two of their three playoff games and their getting too much hype. New England 31 Giants 27
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