CBB Rankings 3-9-14

The Bubble Watch

On the Bubble and IN
Stanford
Arizona State
Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Kansas State
Southern Miss
St. Joseph's
Stephen F. Austin
Xavier
Providence

Notes:
1)  I had Harvard ranked #45.
2)  It is hard to imagine both Xavier & Providence getting in; the same may be true for Southern Miss/Louisiana Tech.  I would expect that due to Conference Tournament week ahead that some of this list will not make the Tournament and will be disappointed. 

On the Bubble and OUT

BYU
Minnesota
Nebraska
California
Florida State (really needed that Syracuse game)
West Virginia (the Kansas win earlier this week helps)
Green Bay (has been defeated in their Conference Tournament.  I have them NIT bound).
Utah
St. John's
Indiana

Notes:
1)  Assumed Toledo would win their league tournament and thus take the MAC's automatic bid.
2)  The Big Ten is interesting.  I have 3 of their teams on the Bubble and Out and a fourth (Illinois) at #76, indicating I think they still have a pulse.
2A)  I think Nebraska will be in with one win in the Tournament.  If they achieve that, they will finish with (at worst) a 12-8 Conference Record in what is widely perceived as the hardest league.
2B)  The Gophers cannot afford a loss in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament and I'm not sure a win over Penn State will be enough to sway the committee.  I think they will probably need to beat the Badgers after dispatching Penn State.
2C)  That Illinois-Indiana game is a "loser leaves town" match in my mind.  The loser can punch their NIT ticket, and quite honestly, the losing coach  should probably be fired.  I don't think the winner would be a lock for the Tournament either.  I think Indiana would need to defeat Michigan to get in, but I do believe that would be enough.  The Illini on the other hand, have a tougher road.  I think a Michigan win would merely put them on the bubble and out.  I think that the Illini would have to advance all the way to the Conference Tournament - and even then, I think they'd be in the First Four Play in games - but I think that would be enough.

Onto the rankings. . . .

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Kansas	6.04
2	Arizona	5.77
3	Florida	5.76
4	Wisconsin	5.70
5	Louisville	5.07
6	Villanova	4.80
7	Wichita State	4.53
8	Syracuse	4.45
9	Cincinnati	4.18
10	Creighton	4.17
11	Michigan	4.17
12	Virginia	4.16
13	Michigan State	4.05
14	San Diego State	3.93
15	Duke	3.92
16	Iowa State	3.68
17	Connecticut	3.65
18	North Carolina	3.49
19	Ohio State	3.48
20	Massachusetts	3.26
21	Virginia Commonwealth	3.14
22	Oklahoma	3.07
23	Saint Louis	3.05
24	Oklahoma State	3.03
25	Oregon	3.02
26	Texas	2.99
27	Memphis	2.95
28	New Mexico	2.91
29	Kentucky	2.90
30	Baylor	2.79
31	George Washington	2.79
32	Iowa	2.69
33	Gonzaga	2.56
34	UCLA	2.56
35	Southern Methodist	2.54
36	Pittsburgh	2.33
37	Arkansas	2.28
38	Colorado	2.12
39	Dayton	2.10
40	Stanford	2.07
41	Arizona State	1.98
42	Tennessee	1.95
43	Louisiana Tech	1.91
44	Kansas State	1.90
45	Harvard	1.89
46	Southern Miss	1.83
47	St. Joseph's (PA)	1.82
48	Stephen F. Austin	1.80
49	Xavier	1.72
50	Providence	1.66
51	Brigham Young	1.63
52	Minnesota	1.63
53	Nebraska	1.62
54	California	1.58
55	Florida State	1.56
56	West Virginia	1.51
57	Toledo	1.50
58	Green Bay	1.41
59	Utah	1.40
60	St. John's	1.39
61	Indiana	1.35
62	North Dakota State	1.25
63	Missouri	1.25
64	Georgetown	1.23
65	LSU	1.14
66	Iona	1.00
67	Marquette	0.99
68	Clemson	0.97
69	Belmont	0.92
70	Saint Mary's	0.87
71	Maryland	0.87
72	North Carolina Central	0.84
73	NC State	0.82
74	Manhattan	0.78
75	Middle Tennessee State	0.71
76	Illinois	0.66
77	Ohio	0.64
78	Georgia State	0.59
79	Western Michigan	0.55
80	Indiana State	0.52
81	Texas Tech	0.48
82	New Mexico State	0.47
83	Richmond	0.45
84	St. Bonaventure	0.43
85	Boise State	0.33
86	Georgia	0.28
87	Delaware	0.25
88	Buffalo	0.24
89	UNLV	0.20
90	San Francisco	0.18
91	Wake Forest	0.18
92	Akron	0.08
93	Eastern Michigan	0.07
94	Cleveland State	0.03
95	Notre Dame	-0.03
96	Oregon State	-0.04
97	Ole Miss	-0.14
98	Georgia Tech	-0.16
99	UC Irvine	-0.21
100	Washington	-0.23
101	Eastern Kentucky	-0.23
102	Purdue	-0.23
103	Northwestern	-0.25
104	Texas-El Paso	-0.27
105	Towson	-0.27
106	Wyoming	-0.28
107	IPFW	-0.31
108	La Salle	-0.31
109	Vanderbilt	-0.40
110	Vermont	-0.41
111	Butler	-0.45
112	Incarnate Word	-0.51
113	Princeton	-0.57
114	Missouri State	-0.67
115	Tulsa	-0.69
116	Texas A&M	-0.72
117	UC-Santa Barbara	-0.73
118	Utah State	-0.74
119	Santa Clara	-0.76
120	Miami (FL)	-0.77
121	Houston	-0.78
122	Louisiana	-0.79
123	Stony Brook	-0.80
124	Duquesne	-0.90
125	Penn State	-0.91
126	Seton Hall	-0.93
127	South Carolina	-0.93
128	Boston University	-0.93
129	South Dakota State	-0.95
130	Colorado State	-0.97
131	Fresno State	-0.99
132	Sam Houston State	-1.01
133	Alabama	-1.04
134	Robert Morris	-1.15
135	William & Mary	-1.16
136	Murray State	-1.16
137	Quinnipiac	-1.20
138	Northern Iowa	-1.24
139	Denver	-1.26
140	Rhode Island	-1.27
141	Hawaii	-1.28
142	Auburn	-1.28
143	Arkansas State	-1.31
144	Illinois State	-1.36
145	Davidson	-1.44
146	Columbia	-1.44
147	Canisius	-1.45
148	USC	-1.45
149	San Diego	-1.47
150	DePaul	-1.48
151	Western Kentucky	-1.54
152	Nebraska-Omaha	-1.56
153	Northwestern State	-1.67
154	Holy Cross	-1.74
155	Old Dominion	-1.75
156	Mercer	-1.76
157	Utah Valley University	-1.76
158	Wright State	-1.77
159	Southern University	-1.78
160	American University	-1.79
161	Portland	-1.79
162	Boston College	-1.81
163	George Mason	-1.81
164	UAB	-1.83
165	Washington State	-1.85
166	Long Beach State	-1.89
167	Drexel	-1.89
168	Morehead State	-1.91
169	Oral Roberts	-1.94
170	USC Upstate	-2.00
171	Wofford	-2.04
172	Texas-Arlington	-2.05
173	UCF	-2.10
174	Yale	-2.16
175	TCU	-2.18
176	Valparaiso	-2.22
177	Northern Illinois	-2.27
178	Pacific	-2.27
179	Loyola Marymount	-2.31
180	Oakland	-2.35
181	Pepperdine	-2.35
182	Florida Gulf Coast	-2.40
183	Brown	-2.41
184	Bowling Green	-2.49
185	Weber State	-2.50
186	Kent State	-2.54
187	Temple	-2.59
188	Youngstown State	-2.60
189	Nevada	-2.61
190	Evansville	-2.65
191	Western Carolina	-2.68
192	Bryant	-2.68
193	Mississippi State	-2.69
194	Southern Illinois	-2.71
195	Coastal Carolina	-2.72
196	Wagner	-2.74
197	Albany	-2.75
198	Virginia Military Institute	-2.76
199	Miami (OH)	-2.78
200	Fordham	-2.83
201	Siena	-2.89
202	Drake	-2.90
203	Charlotte	-2.93
204	Grand Canyon	-2.96
205	Rutgers	-2.99
206	Arkansas-Little Rock	-3.01
207	Milwaukee	-3.02
208	Elon	-3.08
209	Virginia Tech	-3.14
210	Hampton	-3.16
211	Detroit	-3.17
212	Southeast Missouri State	-3.25
213	Hartford	-3.26
214	East Carolina	-3.28
215	South Florida	-3.30
216	North Texas	-3.31
217	Winthrop	-3.32
218	Alabama State	-3.33
219	East Tennessee State	-3.35
220	Lipscomb	-3.35
221	North Florida	-3.35
222	South Dakota	-3.37
223	Chattanooga	-3.40
224	St. Francis (NY)	-3.48
225	St. Peter's	-3.49
226	Northern Colorado	-3.50
227	Florida International	-3.59
228	Radford	-3.65
229	Mount St. Mary's	-3.68
230	High Point	-3.69
231	Montana	-3.69
232	Rider	-3.71
233	Gardner-Webb	-3.74
234	North Carolina-Asheville	-3.74
235	Tennessee Tech	-3.78
236	Army	-3.84
237	Louisiana-Monroe	-3.86
238	Morgan State	-3.96
239	Texas Southern	-4.02
240	Nicholls State	-4.03
241	Air Force	-4.06
242	Cal Poly	-4.09
243	Marist	-4.11
244	Bradley	-4.14
245	North Dakota	-4.19
246	Eastern Washington	-4.24
247	Tulane	-4.28
248	College of Charleston	-4.33
249	Northeastern	-4.34
250	Bucknell	-4.39
251	James Madison	-4.45
252	South Alabama	-4.52
253	Dartmouth	-4.53
254	Alabama A&M	-4.55
255	Lehigh	-4.55
256	Marshall	-4.55
257	Western Illinois	-4.61
258	Savannah State	-4.67
259	McNeese State	-4.78
260	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-4.79
261	New Orleans	-4.83
262	Colgate	-4.84
263	Troy	-4.86
264	Norfolk State	-4.86
265	Cal State Northridge	-4.88
266	Georgia Southern	-4.89
267	Sacramento State	-4.91
268	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-5.05
269	Chicago State	-5.07
270	Charleston Southern	-5.14
271	Northern Arizona	-5.18
272	Central Michigan	-5.22
273	Portland State	-5.28
274	Ball State	-5.31
275	Florida Atlantic	-5.35
276	Florida A&M	-5.42
277	Lafayette	-5.60
278	Idaho	-5.64
279	Jacksonville	-5.64
280	Samford	-5.68
281	Hofstra	-5.68
282	Southeastern Louisiana	-5.74
283	Eastern Illinois	-5.75
284	Cal State Fullerton	-5.75
285	Alcorn State	-5.83
286	Monmouth	-5.88
287	San Jose State	-5.95
288	Loyola (MD)	-6.02
289	North Carolina-Wilmington	-6.02
290	Texas State	-6.04
291	Seattle	-6.27
292	UMass-Lowell	-6.34
293	Cal State Bakersfield	-6.36
294	Loyola (Chicago)	-6.37
295	North Carolina-Greensboro	-6.40
296	Coppin State	-6.43
297	Jackson State	-6.43
298	Abilene Christian	-6.50
299	UC Riverside	-6.54
300	Idaho State	-6.54
301	Pennsylvania	-6.58
302	New Jersey Tech	-6.60
303	Jacksonville State	-6.73
304	Fairfield	-6.78
305	Austin Peay	-6.82
306	Montana State	-6.90
307	Niagara	-6.97
308	Texas-San Antonio	-7.07
309	St. Francis (PA)	-7.20
310	Navy	-7.24
311	Delaware State	-7.28
312	Northern Kentucky	-7.29
313	SIU Edwardsville	-7.31
314	Rice	-7.35
315	Missouri-Kansas City	-7.36
316	Appalachian State	-7.43
317	Fairleigh Dickinson	-7.46
318	Maryland-Baltimore County	-7.57
319	North Carolina A&T	-7.58
320	Liberty	-7.59
321	Prairie View A&M	-7.59
322	Tennessee State	-7.64
323	Long Island	-7.71
324	Mississippi Valley State	-7.86
325	UIC	-7.92
326	UC Davis	-8.06
327	Campbell	-8.18
328	Central Arkansas	-8.25
329	Tennessee-Martin	-8.60
330	Texas-Pan American	-8.77
331	South Carolina State	-8.83
332	IUPUI	-8.86
333	Stetson	-8.97
334	Howard	-9.07
335	Central Connecticut State	-9.14
336	Bethune-Cookman	-9.25
337	Houston Baptist	-9.38
338	Furman	-9.41
339	Kennesaw State	-9.83
340	Citadel	-9.89
341	Cornell	-10.23
342	Maine	-10.27
343	Longwood	-10.50
344	New Hampshire	-10.60
345	Maryland-Eastern Shore	-10.72
346	Lamar	-10.81
347	Binghamton	-11.00
348	Grambling State	-11.30
349	Sacred Heart	-11.33
350	Presbyterian	-11.54
351	Southern Utah	-13.16