CBB Rankings 3-15-14

My last team in is Arizona State; the first one out is now Xavier.

My initial projected impact of tomorrow's games:

Florida vs. Kentucky

I have Florida playing for the #1 overall seed with a win.  A loss would drop them to a #2 seed unless Michigan loses.

I have Kentucky playing for a #5 seed with a win; a loss would drop them to the #7 line.

Michigan vs. Michigan State

I have Michigan playing for the #1 overall seed if Florida were to fall.  A loss should have no impact on seeding (unless the margin is wide).

I have Michigan State playing for a #3 seed with a win while a loss would drop them to a #5.

Virgina vs. Duke

I expect that the winner of this game would move to a #2 seed in my rankings.  Unless the margin of defeat is large, I expect Virginia would remain a #3, while I expect Duke would drop to a #5 seed in these rankings.

VCU vs. St Joe's

I do not expect VCU has much upside on this; I expect them to remain a #5 seed with a win and drop to a #6 seed with a loss.

I have St. Joe's jumping to an #8 seed with a win; depending on the margin of defeat, a loss would have them at a #9 or #10.

I will be doing my rankings challenge again.  I will be using the final regular season rankings of myself, ESPN's BPI, the RPI, KenPom, Sagarin & a couple others to evaluate how well these rankings projected the field as well as individual games.

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Arizona	5.71
2	Louisville	5.59
3	Florida	5.56
4	Kansas	5.39
5	Michigan	5.34
6	Wisconsin	5.28
7	Wichita State	4.53
8	Villanova	4.36
9	Virginia	4.33
10	Iowa State	4.27
11	Connecticut	4.22
12	Creighton	4.13
13	Syracuse	4.11
14	Duke	4.05
15	Michigan State	4.04
16	Cincinnati	3.91
17	San Diego State	3.77
18	Massachusetts	3.53
19	Virginia Commonwealth	3.47
20	New Mexico	3.44
21	UCLA	3.34
22	Kentucky	3.29
23	Saint Louis	3.20
24	George Washington	3.15
25	Ohio State	3.11
26	North Carolina	3.05
27	Baylor	3.04
28	Oklahoma State	2.99
29	Texas	2.96
30	Oregon	2.95
31	Oklahoma	2.88
32	Gonzaga	2.81
33	Memphis	2.80
34	Iowa	2.73
35	Pittsburgh	2.71
36	St. Joseph's (PA)	2.48
37	Southern Methodist	2.36
38	Providence	2.19
39	Louisiana Tech	2.15
40	Dayton	2.06
41	Colorado	1.97
42	Nebraska	1.93
43	Tennessee	1.89
44	Harvard	1.89
45	Florida State	1.86
46	Southern Miss	1.86
47	Kansas State	1.84
48	Arizona State	1.81
49	Stephen F. Austin	1.79
50	Xavier	1.79
51	Stanford	1.67
52	Arkansas	1.60
53	Brigham Young	1.56
54	Minnesota	1.55
55	North Dakota State	1.47
56	West Virginia	1.43
57	Green Bay	1.41
58	California	1.41
59	Utah	1.38
60	Toledo	1.35
61	St. John's	1.35
62	Indiana	1.31
63	Georgetown	1.20
64	Illinois	1.18
65	NC State	1.17
66	Missouri	1.14
67	North Carolina Central	1.00
68	St. Bonaventure	0.98
69	Marquette	0.97
70	Belmont	0.92
71	Western Michigan	0.92
72	Clemson	0.92
73	LSU	0.91
74	Iona	0.84
75	Middle Tennessee State	0.75
76	Mercer	0.73
77	Saint Mary's	0.73
78	Maryland	0.73
79	Manhattan	0.69
80	Penn State	0.64
81	Ohio	0.60
82	Richmond	0.60
83	Georgia State	0.60
84	Indiana State	0.52
85	Boise State	0.50
86	New Mexico State	0.46
87	Texas Tech	0.41
88	Georgia	0.39
89	Akron	0.33
90	Buffalo	0.22
91	Delaware	0.16
92	Wake Forest	0.16
93	Eastern Michigan	0.12
94	UNLV	0.07
95	San Francisco	0.06
96	Cleveland State	0.03
97	Washington	-0.04
98	Northwestern	-0.05
99	Tulsa	-0.06
100	Ole Miss	-0.11
101	Notre Dame	-0.14
102	Georgia Tech	-0.15
103	Seton Hall	-0.19
104	Oregon State	-0.21
105	Towson	-0.23
106	Eastern Kentucky	-0.23
107	La Salle	-0.29
108	IPFW	-0.30
109	Texas-El Paso	-0.34
110	Wyoming	-0.35
111	Vermont	-0.41
112	Houston	-0.41
113	Purdue	-0.50
114	Incarnate Word	-0.51
115	Butler	-0.57
116	Louisiana	-0.61
117	Texas A&M	-0.67
118	Missouri State	-0.67
119	Princeton	-0.76
120	Utah State	-0.76
121	Santa Clara	-0.76
122	UC Irvine	-0.78
123	Miami (FL)	-0.85
124	Duquesne	-0.87
125	South Dakota State	-0.87
126	South Carolina	-0.89
127	Vanderbilt	-0.94
128	Fresno State	-0.98
129	Alabama	-1.01
130	Sam Houston State	-1.05
131	Colorado State	-1.10
132	Murray State	-1.16
133	Quinnipiac	-1.20
134	Boston University	-1.21
135	Northern Iowa	-1.24
136	DePaul	-1.27
137	Rhode Island	-1.29
138	Illinois State	-1.36
139	Denver	-1.37
140	Arkansas State	-1.39
141	Davidson	-1.39
142	UC-Santa Barbara	-1.41
143	USC	-1.42
144	Columbia	-1.44
145	Auburn	-1.45
146	Canisius	-1.45
147	Stony Brook	-1.46
148	San Diego	-1.47
149	Robert Morris	-1.47
150	Wofford	-1.50
151	William & Mary	-1.52
152	American University	-1.53
153	Nebraska-Omaha	-1.56
154	Northwestern State	-1.66
155	Old Dominion	-1.71
156	Holy Cross	-1.74
157	Portland	-1.79
158	Washington State	-1.88
159	Boston College	-1.88
160	Drexel	-1.89
161	Morehead State	-1.91
162	USC Upstate	-2.00
163	Hawaii	-2.00
164	Wright State	-2.00
165	Western Kentucky	-2.02
166	Oral Roberts	-2.03
167	Utah Valley University	-2.06
168	UAB	-2.07
169	Texas-Arlington	-2.15
170	Yale	-2.16
171	Kent State	-2.16
172	TCU	-2.17
173	Valparaiso	-2.22
174	Pacific	-2.27
175	Bowling Green	-2.28
176	Southern University	-2.29
177	George Mason	-2.29
178	Loyola Marymount	-2.31
179	Long Beach State	-2.34
180	Oakland	-2.35
181	Pepperdine	-2.35
182	Weber State	-2.36
183	UCF	-2.39
184	Florida Gulf Coast	-2.40
185	Brown	-2.41
186	Northern Illinois	-2.44
187	Mississippi State	-2.53
188	Albany	-2.56
189	Fordham	-2.57
190	Youngstown State	-2.60
191	Nevada	-2.61
192	Evansville	-2.65
193	Bryant	-2.68
194	Southern Illinois	-2.71
195	Coastal Carolina	-2.72
196	Wagner	-2.74
197	Miami (OH)	-2.74
198	Virginia Military Institute	-2.76
199	Milwaukee	-2.78
200	Siena	-2.89
201	Western Carolina	-2.89
202	Drake	-2.90
203	Grand Canyon	-2.96
204	Charlotte	-2.99
205	Rutgers	-3.03
206	Arkansas-Little Rock	-3.05
207	Elon	-3.08
208	East Carolina	-3.08
209	Detroit	-3.17
210	Virginia Tech	-3.18
211	Southeast Missouri State	-3.25
212	Winthrop	-3.32
213	East Tennessee State	-3.35
214	Lipscomb	-3.35
215	North Florida	-3.35
216	Hartford	-3.37
217	South Dakota	-3.37
218	Northern Colorado	-3.37
219	Chattanooga	-3.40
220	Mount St. Mary's	-3.43
221	St. Francis (NY)	-3.48
222	St. Peter's	-3.49
223	Temple	-3.50
224	South Florida	-3.54
225	Texas Southern	-3.55
226	Florida International	-3.59
227	Cal Poly	-3.60
228	Radford	-3.65
229	North Texas	-3.66
230	Hampton	-3.68
231	High Point	-3.69
232	Rider	-3.71
233	Alabama State	-3.71
234	Gardner-Webb	-3.74
235	North Carolina-Asheville	-3.74
236	Morgan State	-3.76
237	Tennessee Tech	-3.78
238	Army	-3.84
239	Nicholls State	-4.04
240	North Dakota	-4.04
241	Air Force	-4.10
242	Marist	-4.11
243	Bradley	-4.14
244	Tulane	-4.14
245	Montana	-4.18
246	Eastern Washington	-4.24
247	College of Charleston	-4.33
248	Norfolk State	-4.37
249	Bucknell	-4.39
250	Marshall	-4.40
251	James Madison	-4.45
252	South Alabama	-4.52
253	Northeastern	-4.53
254	Dartmouth	-4.53
255	Western Illinois	-4.54
256	Lehigh	-4.55
257	Ball State	-4.58
258	Central Michigan	-4.66
259	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-4.77
260	New Orleans	-4.83
261	Colgate	-4.84
262	Alabama A&M	-4.85
263	Savannah State	-4.87
264	McNeese State	-4.88
265	Georgia Southern	-4.89
266	Louisiana-Monroe	-4.98
267	Cal State Northridge	-5.00
268	Charleston Southern	-5.14
269	Sacramento State	-5.31
270	Idaho	-5.37
271	Chicago State	-5.41
272	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-5.47
273	Portland State	-5.47
274	San Jose State	-5.55
275	Northern Arizona	-5.55
276	Lafayette	-5.60
277	Jacksonville	-5.64
278	Samford	-5.68
279	Hofstra	-5.68
280	Florida Atlantic	-5.73
281	Eastern Illinois	-5.75
282	Troy	-5.75
283	Monmouth	-5.88
284	Florida A&M	-5.94
285	Loyola (MD)	-6.02
286	North Carolina-Wilmington	-6.02
287	Texas State	-6.04
288	Cal State Bakersfield	-6.05
289	Cal State Fullerton	-6.05
290	Pennsylvania	-6.08
291	Southeastern Louisiana	-6.16
292	Seattle	-6.25
293	Alcorn State	-6.29
294	UMass-Lowell	-6.34
295	Loyola (Chicago)	-6.37
296	North Carolina-Greensboro	-6.40
297	Abilene Christian	-6.50
298	Idaho State	-6.54
299	Coppin State	-6.55
300	New Jersey Tech	-6.60
301	Jacksonville State	-6.73
302	Fairfield	-6.78
303	UC Riverside	-6.79
304	Austin Peay	-6.82
305	Montana State	-6.90
306	Jackson State	-6.97
307	Niagara	-6.97
308	Prairie View A&M	-7.19
309	St. Francis (PA)	-7.20
310	Navy	-7.24
311	Northern Kentucky	-7.29
312	SIU Edwardsville	-7.31
313	Rice	-7.40
314	Appalachian State	-7.43
315	Fairleigh Dickinson	-7.46
316	Texas-San Antonio	-7.50
317	Maryland-Baltimore County	-7.57
318	Liberty	-7.59
319	Delaware State	-7.61
320	Missouri-Kansas City	-7.62
321	Tennessee State	-7.64
322	Long Island	-7.71
323	North Carolina A&T	-7.92
324	UIC	-7.92
325	Mississippi Valley State	-8.03
326	UC Davis	-8.06
327	Campbell	-8.18
328	Central Arkansas	-8.25
329	Tennessee-Martin	-8.60
330	Howard	-8.78
331	Texas-Pan American	-8.79
332	South Carolina State	-8.81
333	IUPUI	-8.86
334	Stetson	-8.97
335	Central Connecticut State	-9.14
336	Houston Baptist	-9.38
337	Furman	-9.41
338	Bethune-Cookman	-9.72
339	Kennesaw State	-9.83
340	Citadel	-9.89
341	Cornell	-10.23
342	Maine	-10.27
343	Maryland-Eastern Shore	-10.42
344	Longwood	-10.50
345	New Hampshire	-10.60
346	Lamar	-10.81
347	Binghamton	-11.00
348	Grambling State	-11.32
349	Sacred Heart	-11.33
350	Presbyterian	-11.54
351	Southern Utah	-13.16