When I think about the best team I have ever seen fail to win a college basketball championship, three contenders come to mind:
1) 1990-1991 UNLV Runnin Rebels. This squad featured 5 future NBA players, 3 of whom would go on to play major minutes on legitimate title contenders. UNLV was the defending champion, and cruised through the regular season undefeated.
2) 2009-2010 Kentucky Wildcats. This squad featured no less than 8 future NBA players and entered the NCAA Tournament 35-2. This was arguably the most talented team I've ever seen. However, most of the players were young and inexperienced - that combined with a lack of outside shooting caused them to fall to West Virginia in the Final 4.
3) 1996-1997 Kentucky Wildcats. This was a defending champion that entered the tournament at 30-4 and featured 7 NBA Players. They would fall to Arizona in the National Championship.
Saturday night, Louisville faces Kentucky and tries to add them to this list as a 5:1 underdog.
Below is a blueprint for how I would attack Kentucky.
By no means is this blueprint a guarantee that Louisville will win if executed correctly - Kentucky is a superior team - but I do believe it gives the Cardinals their best shot at pulling off the upset.
Louisville on offense
Louisville is at it's best when the defense is generating offense (and has been ever since I have been a fan). The idea is this - the press wears on opposing guards and fatigues them, once in the frontcourt, the defense locks up and allows only poor percentage shots, forces a miss or a turnover, the offense gets in transition and scores with an advantageous situation, the defense gets in a press and the situation snowballs into a game-breaking Louisville run that demoralizes the opponent. Most of the time, this is effective.
For most of the season, freshman point guard Marquis Teague was perceived to be the achilles heal of Kentucky - not that he's not a talented player - but because he is inexperienced and hasn't yet how to learn to play the game. He's certainly improved as the season has gone on but he is still a freshman and is Kentucky's only true point guard.
Louisville must fuel it's offense with defense - pressing at every opportunity - off every make (and there may not be many) but also off misses - it must be the aim of Louisville to drain Teague through a war of attrition and cut Kentucky off at the legs. Off every Kentucky miss, if possible, Louisville must attack in transition as they were far more effective offensively in transition than in the halfcourt game, via Synergy Sports. This will require Dieng and Behanan to quickly find and identify Siva and/or Russ Smith off every Kentucky miss to trigger the offense, but also run the court quickly (something both do very well for big men).
Doing this will up the tempo of the game, which is an environment in which the Cardinals excel - they are 9-1 on the season when the total breaks 140 and 21-8 when it does not. Although Kentucky's score would likely rise as well through the increased possession, the Louisville defense ideally should keep Kentucky's points per possession low and artificially raise Louisville's.
When transition is not available, 3 point shots will be Louisville's downfall should they attempt them. Louisville shoots a poor 32% from 3 point land, and Kentucky will likely beg them to shoot the 3 - this would be a mistake. Indiana and Vanderbilt both won the game at the foul line - with Vanderbilt nearly doubling Kentucky in free throw attempts and Indiana limiting Davis to 24 minutes due to foul trouble. Siva and Russ Smith must be aggressive in penetrating, and patient enough to pound it down low to freshman Chane Behanan on the blocks. Behanan has been in double figures every game throughout the tournament and has shot 23-34 throughout the tournament. He must receive the ball on every possession that turns into a halfcourt offense - that could allow penetration on the other side of the lane by Siva and Smith. Only if Behanan has such success that Kentucky decides to double him, might 3 point shooting be acceptable. A blueprint will ask alot of Dieng, but if Dieng can hit a couple shots from the high post/either elbow, that might de-clog the lane a bit; proper floor spacing from Kuric/Chris Smith to at least pose the threat of a 3 point shot would also help de-clog the lane. That seems like a stretch, but don't forget that during the big Louisville run against Michigan State, Dieng did manage to make a 3 pointer.
Louisville on Defense
The best argument you can make for Louisville pulling off the upset is that their strength - defense - trumps anyone else's strength. As mentioned previously, Louisville's defense will have to fuel the offense and speeding up the game is recommended.
Obviously, Louisville needs to keep doing what their doing but a few principles are recommended:
-A zone or at least the hybrid zone that Pitino frequently utilizes would be ideal for keeping Dieng out of foul trouble and giving Kentucky the 3 pointer. If Dieng gets into foul trouble, although everyone on Louisville is at least an above average defender, the center may soften and Davis/Kidd-Gilchrist may hammer the Cardinals in the paint. That does run the risk of Darius Miller, Lamb or Wiltjer lighting the Cardinals up from the perimeter, but the hybrid zone might keep a man on the 3 point threat, while applying zone principles elsewhere. To pull this off is going to require some luck, and I'd rather roll the dice with Kentucky launching 3 pointers than Kidd-Ghilchrist/Davis/Jones hammering me inside. In it's 2 losses, Kentucky was 8-35 from the 3 point line.
-It's worth re-stating - press at every opportunity - scores for certain, out of timeouts and even close misses - if the game turns into a rock fight, the risk of the offense stagnating in the halfcourt is significant and a 64-57 defeat becomes likely.
-Keep Louisville wing players fresh - sub early and often. Intense defensive pressure is going to be key to keeping Kentucky's score down. Since the first principle relies on giving Kentucky 3 pointers, it's obviously worth mentioning that the 3 pointers launched must still be contested, and penetration against the zone not be allowed. This means that freshman Wayne Blackshear may be called upon to keep Siva/both Smiths/Kuric/Blackshear all fresh so that they can play defense at high intensity. If this means Louisville has to buy minutes with Winston Justice or Zach Price, so be it - the outer integrity of the zone (when used) must be maintained at all costs and players must be fresh enough to press at every opportunity.
Good luck to the Cardinals on Saturday.
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