In the wake of the 2012 Presidential Election, President Obama has (belatedly) decided to tackle the national deficit - or at least find a more politically palatable way to avoid the fiscal deficit.
House Leader John Boehner has decided to oppose President Obama's proposals to raise taxes on the 'rich' and most Americans now consider a deal on the Fiscal Cliff unlikely.
This begs two questions:
1) Are taxes too high?
At present, the United States federal tax (this stat excludes Social Security payments for all countries) is 5th lowest in the world and 2nd lowest amongst developed nations.
If we compare the country to it's total history, tax revenue is now at it's lowest level since 1950.
Moreover, federal Revenue as a % of GDP could increase by about 10%, and still be lower than about 90% of years since 1950 (and still keep the U.S. in the top 10 lowest taxed countries - lower than Canada and all of Europe).
When this is compounded with the CBO's finding that the top marginal tax rate has neglible impact on the economy, there is no reason to think that taxes are too high.
With that being said, this blog does not advocate any more than a 10% tax increase; a number that would reduce the deficit by about 15% - a sizeable bite to be sure - but nowhere near the amount needed to reduce the deficit on it's own.
2) What would it take to wipe out the deficit without raising revenue?
Short answer: An act of God.
Long answer: Defense spending would have to be reduced by just over 40%, Discretionary spending would have to be reduced by another 20% (on top of already proposed slashes in spending), Social Security would have to be modified to an approach proposed by this blog in May and Medicare would have to be slashed by another 35-40%. (Sources at bottom).
In short, it's virtually impossible to balance the budget through spending cuts alone.
That being said, this blog is not endorsing the current administration either. An administration that has racked up trillion dollar deficits + for the last 4 years cannot be taken seriously on the issue of deficit reduction. If however, the President and Senate Democrats were willing to reduce federal spending by $4-$10 for every new dollar in federal revenue, this blog would be willing to reconsider it's position.
Ultimately, this blog would like to see Republicans be willing to compromise on very modest tax increases if it would lead to long term sustainability - the current Republican party has shown no willingness to do that.
http://motorgasm.wordpress.com/category/u-s-government/page/7/
http://useconomy.about.com/od/usfederalbudget/p/Discretionary.htm
http://pmacpginsights.blogspot.com/2012/05/mission-protect-future-of-us-part-3.html
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Friday, October 19, 2012
8 Bold Predictions for the 2012-2013 NBA Season (Part 2)
In case you missed part 1 of my NBA Preview, here it is.
In this part, we're going to cover the Western Conference, as well as make the prediction on the champion. As always, predictions are based on my simulator - supported by real facts.
The Los Angeles Clippers will win the Pacific Division.
I thought this was a bold prediction until I heard on the B.S. Report that Hollinger has the Lakers projected for 4th in the West. At any rate, this is still a relatively bold prediction given that Vegas still has the Lakers with the best odds to win the West.
We need to address both the Clippers and the Lakers here.
Clippers
A little known fact is that based on pythagorean win projection, the Clippers were actually 3 games better than the Lakers last year. If you project that over an 82 game season, they already have a 5 game lead on the Lakers.
While the Lakers are the ones who made the headlines for their splashy moves, the Clippers made some very solid acquisitions of their own such as....
Jamal Crawford - Crawford brings an instant offense component to the Clippers, although there are significant signs Crawford is slowing down - as evidenced by the fact that his TS % has precipitously declined over the last 3 years, Los Angeles may prove to be his fountain of youth. If he doesn't pan out...
Matt Barnes is actually vastly superior to Crawford at this point in their careers. Barnes is an above average statistical defender who also rebounds competently with a 13% rebounding rate. Although Barnes likely shoots too many 3 pointers (nearly 35% of his fga are 3's) at too low a clip (33%), he still shoots over 50% on 2 point attempts.
The Clippers also acquired some nice veteran leadership in the form of Grant Hill who while aged to be sure, can still provide solid minutes. We can also expect Eric Bledsoe to take a nice leap forward - and if Lamar Odom is anything resembling what he once was, the Clippers should be significantly improved. Chauncey Billups also returns from injury - and this squad only needs 10-15 quality minutes backing up Paul out of the seasoned veteran.
The Clippers did not lose anything of substance that was not replaced and then some. When you look at their total roster, you see a much deeper roster than what was present last year - this depth should help the Clippers deal with injuries (so long as their not to Paul or Griffin) and with the versatility the Clippers have, they should be able to give teams several different looks. This isn't the same roster that got swept by the Spurs last year (although the Spurs are still projected to be superior to the Clippers) and a win total right around 55 seems probable.
The Clippers are projected to be the 5th best team in the league; an improvement upon last year's 11th best mark based on expected wins.
Lakers
Part of the reason that the Lakers are ranked a (relatively) low 7th place overall and 5th in the West is because they have a much worse base to build off of than what might think.
Last year the Lakers finished a shockingly low 13th in pythagorean win totals - so expecting them to climb 6 spots actually does indicate a substantial improvement already. The issue with the Lakers isn't firepower - they have plenty of that and are projected to finish 4th in points per possession - a 6 spot improvement over a year ago, fueled by the addition of Nash and Jamison.
The problem that we have with the Lakers is Defense - the Lakers currently are projected to finish 15th in points allowed per possession. This might seem surprising given the addition of Howard and that Bryant and Metta World Peace were already on the roster last year. However both Bryant and Peace have slipped considerably in defense. Last year the Lakers finished 13th in points allowed per possession, and despite the addition of Howard, a slight decline is projected defensively.
First, any lineups without Howard - no matter who the pairings are - are likely to be weak. The Lakers really only have 3 true bigs who are likely to get playing time - Howard, Gasol and Jordan Hill - neither of the latter two are particularly strong on defense. Next, the Lakers lost the player who according to my defensive ratings numbers, was their best wing defender last year in Matt Barnes. Additionally, while Steve Nash is a significant upgrade at the point guard position, he is a notoriously weak defender and will be a liability against Western point guards like Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and even lesser talents like Jeremy Lin and former teammate Dragic.
Compounding the problem, the addition of Antawn Jamison is a net plus - but again, Jamison is not a particularly strong defensive player and cannot cover either forward spot effectively at this point in his career.
Finally, Bryant and Peace's defensive capabilities are exaggerated at this point. Peace is still an above average defender for his position at this point in his career, but statistics indicate he is more like a 75th percentile quality defender as opposed to a 95th - which is the perception of his defense.
For all purposes, Bryant is a league average defender for his position at this point in his career and part of that can certainly be attributed to role - with as much of the offense as Bryant is asked to carry, it's difficult to maintain a high defensive intensity at his age. And it's certainly possible that he may be able to focus more defenisvely. However, even if Bryant improves defensively due to focus, adding another year to him isn't likely to help. For the Lakers to improve substantially defensively, it will take contribution from an unknown or unproven source to lift them up. On the flip side, any injury will expose their lack of depth - and it is uncertain how Howard will bounce back from back surgery and he is truly the crux of their defense.
If that does not happen, as Grantland's Zach Lowe notes, it's very difficult to enjoy substantial playoff success without a strong defense. The Lakers' raw firepower will give them a chance against anyone, but ultimately it is likely that their defense will be their undoing.
The Clippers' superior depth and better balanced team is a safer bet to win the division - even though the Lakers will be heavily favored.
The Northwest Division will send 4 teams to the playoffs.
Picking OKC and Denver to make the playoffs isn't exactly bold - predicting BOTH Utah and Minnesota to make the playoffs is.
Utah
There's nothing really special that the tool falls in love with about Utah - it sees them as an average unit both offensively and defensively. There's a lot of talent and depth in the front court and the Jazz can certainly hammer people down low and own the boards, but their isn't much shot blocking either and unless Gordon Hayward makes a substantial year three leap, the backcourt is lacking at both ends of the court stocked with Hayward, Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Jamal Tinsley, Earl Watson and Raja Bell. Nothing there that scares you.
What makes the tool fall in love with the Jazz relative to other teams is simply that most of the mid-tier teams will be taking a big step back. Houston? They just gutted their roster. Phoenix? They will likely be taking a substantial step back without Nash. Memphis? Just lost key pieces in O.J. Mayo and Dante Cunningham with little in the way of replacements. Even if you like Dallas enough to pencil them in for a playoff spot (and this projection does), 2 of the top contenders for that 8th spot will be stepping backwards this year and one playoff team (Memphis) will likely be taking a step back. In all likelihood, there will have to be 2 teams who finished behind the Jazz last year who would have to leapfrog them. There is one team that is projected to leapfrog them....
Minnesota
The hand injury that Kevin Love suffered that will keep him sidelined until Mid-December certainly hurts, but in the meantime the T-Wolves have enough depth that they should be OK. There has been enough sleeper buzz around the T-Wolves that rather than play up their strengths, I'll discuss potential weaknesses.
Something that gets lost in the shuffle is that the T-Wolves added defensive stud Greg Steisma to their roster as well as Dante Cunningham, in addition to the more publicized Andrei Kirilenko. That trio should at least be good enough to hold down the fort until Love's return and the T-Wolves also have year 2 of Derrick Williams.
In the backcourt, the T-Wolves added Brandon Roy on the wings and while he's certainly not going to be the player he once was, he can still be a solid contributor to a playoff team. The real issue for the T-Wolves will be surviving until Love AND Rubio get back from injury. Minnesota's not a team with a lot in the backcourt even with Rubio and his injury compounds the problem. The T-Wolves will be thin in the backcourt with weak defenders and as noted, it's tough to play in the West with defensive weakness in the backcourt. Without Love, this is also a weak rebounding team and when weak defensive guard play is combined with poor rebounding, that creates a team that can be lit up pretty easily; Minnesota is projected to be in the bottom 10 defensively.
That said, the T-Wolves should be strong offensively. Cunningham gives nice frontcourt scoring and AK-47 has historically been an efficient offensive weapon. The backcourt, while sub-par overall as previously discussed, is competent offensively and the team has 4 strong 3 point shooters in their rotation combined with willing and capable passers. Minnesota is projected for 9th in offensive efficiency which should be just barely enough to get them to the playoffs. If healthy by playoff time, Minnesota will not be a fun opponent to face and would a healthy Minnesota squad would have a reasonably good chance of advancing to the 2nd round if it were in the East.
Denver will win the Western Conference and topple Miami to become the 2012-2013 NBA Champion
I know - picking a team that couldn't get out of the first round to win the whole thing sounds a bit absurd doesn't it? It also doesn't help that you could argue that the tool has a Nugget bias as it predicted Denver to defeat the Lakers in the first round last year doesn't it?
However, Denver isn't that typical first round fodder; they actually out-scored the Lakers during their 7 game series last year, despite not having homecourt advantage. The Nuggets were simply unlucky as opposed to inferior.
When studying the Nuggets last year, one observes that they were an offensive powerhouse - finishing 1st in total points scored and 3rd in points per possession. Like other teams discussed, they were done in by their defense.
Any discussion of Denver becoming a legit title contender is based on the assumption that A) Their offensive prowess will continue and B) they will improve defensively.
The Nuggets' have swapped out Chris Andersen, Al Harrington and Aaron Affalo for Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer.
Iguodala (AI going forward)
AI represents a substantial improvement for the Nuggets. He is already known throughout the league as an elite defender and the statistics back this up - for his position his defensive rating grades out in the 90th percentile - while infrequently fouling. AI is simply one of the best wing defenders in the league - and also hits the boards hard, with a 9.6% rebounding rate - grading out in about the 85th percentile for his position. His defensive and rebounding prowess are a substantial upgrade over Affalo. AI adds another player to the Nuggets who can create their own shot and AI is a willing passer - his pace adjusted assist rate is 85% that of incumbent point guard Ty Lawson. AI represents a major upgrade for Denver.
Corey Brewer
This is a sneaky good pickup by the Nuggets that hasn't gotten a ton of attention, but is a valuable addition. Like AI, Brewer is a very strong defender - grading out at about the 80th percentile defensively - which is something he is actually known for. Brewer is also more efficient offensively than given credit for - he shoots over 50% on 2 point field goal attempts and has an impressive 9.8% turnover rate (league average is about 14). He is clearly a defensive upgrade over the departed Al Harrington.
Wilson Chandler
Chandler may find minutes tough to come by on this deep squad but his defensive indicators are nearly on par with Brewer and he also offers solid rebounding numbers for a wing player.
What about the loss of the Birdman?
All this talk about the defensive prowess of the Nuggets may bring to mind Chris Andersen, otherwise known as the Bird Man. Andersen's impact will not be noticeable, mainly because he couldn't keep himself on the court last year - he played in just 15% of the team's minutes
Due to the defensive upgrades and the Nuggets' strong rebounding prowess (virtually every major player is an adequate or better rebounder for their position save for Gallinari), the Nuggets project out as a team that will be much harder to score against from the wing positions and one that will be difficult to obtain 2nd chance points against.
The simulator tool projects that the defensive improvements should be enough to vault the Nuggets' defense up to a strong unit. The transactions that the Nuggets made in the offseason should also improve an already powerful offensive machine and this combination is projected to lead Denver to the title over Miami.
Projections (Playoff Teams denoted by *)
Northwest
Denver *
Oklahoma City *
Minnesota *
Utah *
Portland
Southwest
San Antonio *
Dallas *
New Orleans
Memphis
Houston
Pacific
Los Angeles Clippers *
Los Angeles Lakers *
Golden State
Sacramento
Phoenix
WCF: Denver over Oklahoma City
Finals: Denver over Miami
In this part, we're going to cover the Western Conference, as well as make the prediction on the champion. As always, predictions are based on my simulator - supported by real facts.
The Los Angeles Clippers will win the Pacific Division.
I thought this was a bold prediction until I heard on the B.S. Report that Hollinger has the Lakers projected for 4th in the West. At any rate, this is still a relatively bold prediction given that Vegas still has the Lakers with the best odds to win the West.
We need to address both the Clippers and the Lakers here.
Clippers
A little known fact is that based on pythagorean win projection, the Clippers were actually 3 games better than the Lakers last year. If you project that over an 82 game season, they already have a 5 game lead on the Lakers.
While the Lakers are the ones who made the headlines for their splashy moves, the Clippers made some very solid acquisitions of their own such as....
Jamal Crawford - Crawford brings an instant offense component to the Clippers, although there are significant signs Crawford is slowing down - as evidenced by the fact that his TS % has precipitously declined over the last 3 years, Los Angeles may prove to be his fountain of youth. If he doesn't pan out...
Matt Barnes is actually vastly superior to Crawford at this point in their careers. Barnes is an above average statistical defender who also rebounds competently with a 13% rebounding rate. Although Barnes likely shoots too many 3 pointers (nearly 35% of his fga are 3's) at too low a clip (33%), he still shoots over 50% on 2 point attempts.
The Clippers also acquired some nice veteran leadership in the form of Grant Hill who while aged to be sure, can still provide solid minutes. We can also expect Eric Bledsoe to take a nice leap forward - and if Lamar Odom is anything resembling what he once was, the Clippers should be significantly improved. Chauncey Billups also returns from injury - and this squad only needs 10-15 quality minutes backing up Paul out of the seasoned veteran.
The Clippers did not lose anything of substance that was not replaced and then some. When you look at their total roster, you see a much deeper roster than what was present last year - this depth should help the Clippers deal with injuries (so long as their not to Paul or Griffin) and with the versatility the Clippers have, they should be able to give teams several different looks. This isn't the same roster that got swept by the Spurs last year (although the Spurs are still projected to be superior to the Clippers) and a win total right around 55 seems probable.
The Clippers are projected to be the 5th best team in the league; an improvement upon last year's 11th best mark based on expected wins.
Lakers
Part of the reason that the Lakers are ranked a (relatively) low 7th place overall and 5th in the West is because they have a much worse base to build off of than what might think.
Last year the Lakers finished a shockingly low 13th in pythagorean win totals - so expecting them to climb 6 spots actually does indicate a substantial improvement already. The issue with the Lakers isn't firepower - they have plenty of that and are projected to finish 4th in points per possession - a 6 spot improvement over a year ago, fueled by the addition of Nash and Jamison.
The problem that we have with the Lakers is Defense - the Lakers currently are projected to finish 15th in points allowed per possession. This might seem surprising given the addition of Howard and that Bryant and Metta World Peace were already on the roster last year. However both Bryant and Peace have slipped considerably in defense. Last year the Lakers finished 13th in points allowed per possession, and despite the addition of Howard, a slight decline is projected defensively.
First, any lineups without Howard - no matter who the pairings are - are likely to be weak. The Lakers really only have 3 true bigs who are likely to get playing time - Howard, Gasol and Jordan Hill - neither of the latter two are particularly strong on defense. Next, the Lakers lost the player who according to my defensive ratings numbers, was their best wing defender last year in Matt Barnes. Additionally, while Steve Nash is a significant upgrade at the point guard position, he is a notoriously weak defender and will be a liability against Western point guards like Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and even lesser talents like Jeremy Lin and former teammate Dragic.
Compounding the problem, the addition of Antawn Jamison is a net plus - but again, Jamison is not a particularly strong defensive player and cannot cover either forward spot effectively at this point in his career.
Finally, Bryant and Peace's defensive capabilities are exaggerated at this point. Peace is still an above average defender for his position at this point in his career, but statistics indicate he is more like a 75th percentile quality defender as opposed to a 95th - which is the perception of his defense.
For all purposes, Bryant is a league average defender for his position at this point in his career and part of that can certainly be attributed to role - with as much of the offense as Bryant is asked to carry, it's difficult to maintain a high defensive intensity at his age. And it's certainly possible that he may be able to focus more defenisvely. However, even if Bryant improves defensively due to focus, adding another year to him isn't likely to help. For the Lakers to improve substantially defensively, it will take contribution from an unknown or unproven source to lift them up. On the flip side, any injury will expose their lack of depth - and it is uncertain how Howard will bounce back from back surgery and he is truly the crux of their defense.
If that does not happen, as Grantland's Zach Lowe notes, it's very difficult to enjoy substantial playoff success without a strong defense. The Lakers' raw firepower will give them a chance against anyone, but ultimately it is likely that their defense will be their undoing.
The Clippers' superior depth and better balanced team is a safer bet to win the division - even though the Lakers will be heavily favored.
The Northwest Division will send 4 teams to the playoffs.
Picking OKC and Denver to make the playoffs isn't exactly bold - predicting BOTH Utah and Minnesota to make the playoffs is.
Utah
There's nothing really special that the tool falls in love with about Utah - it sees them as an average unit both offensively and defensively. There's a lot of talent and depth in the front court and the Jazz can certainly hammer people down low and own the boards, but their isn't much shot blocking either and unless Gordon Hayward makes a substantial year three leap, the backcourt is lacking at both ends of the court stocked with Hayward, Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Jamal Tinsley, Earl Watson and Raja Bell. Nothing there that scares you.
What makes the tool fall in love with the Jazz relative to other teams is simply that most of the mid-tier teams will be taking a big step back. Houston? They just gutted their roster. Phoenix? They will likely be taking a substantial step back without Nash. Memphis? Just lost key pieces in O.J. Mayo and Dante Cunningham with little in the way of replacements. Even if you like Dallas enough to pencil them in for a playoff spot (and this projection does), 2 of the top contenders for that 8th spot will be stepping backwards this year and one playoff team (Memphis) will likely be taking a step back. In all likelihood, there will have to be 2 teams who finished behind the Jazz last year who would have to leapfrog them. There is one team that is projected to leapfrog them....
Minnesota
The hand injury that Kevin Love suffered that will keep him sidelined until Mid-December certainly hurts, but in the meantime the T-Wolves have enough depth that they should be OK. There has been enough sleeper buzz around the T-Wolves that rather than play up their strengths, I'll discuss potential weaknesses.
Something that gets lost in the shuffle is that the T-Wolves added defensive stud Greg Steisma to their roster as well as Dante Cunningham, in addition to the more publicized Andrei Kirilenko. That trio should at least be good enough to hold down the fort until Love's return and the T-Wolves also have year 2 of Derrick Williams.
In the backcourt, the T-Wolves added Brandon Roy on the wings and while he's certainly not going to be the player he once was, he can still be a solid contributor to a playoff team. The real issue for the T-Wolves will be surviving until Love AND Rubio get back from injury. Minnesota's not a team with a lot in the backcourt even with Rubio and his injury compounds the problem. The T-Wolves will be thin in the backcourt with weak defenders and as noted, it's tough to play in the West with defensive weakness in the backcourt. Without Love, this is also a weak rebounding team and when weak defensive guard play is combined with poor rebounding, that creates a team that can be lit up pretty easily; Minnesota is projected to be in the bottom 10 defensively.
That said, the T-Wolves should be strong offensively. Cunningham gives nice frontcourt scoring and AK-47 has historically been an efficient offensive weapon. The backcourt, while sub-par overall as previously discussed, is competent offensively and the team has 4 strong 3 point shooters in their rotation combined with willing and capable passers. Minnesota is projected for 9th in offensive efficiency which should be just barely enough to get them to the playoffs. If healthy by playoff time, Minnesota will not be a fun opponent to face and would a healthy Minnesota squad would have a reasonably good chance of advancing to the 2nd round if it were in the East.
Denver will win the Western Conference and topple Miami to become the 2012-2013 NBA Champion
I know - picking a team that couldn't get out of the first round to win the whole thing sounds a bit absurd doesn't it? It also doesn't help that you could argue that the tool has a Nugget bias as it predicted Denver to defeat the Lakers in the first round last year doesn't it?
However, Denver isn't that typical first round fodder; they actually out-scored the Lakers during their 7 game series last year, despite not having homecourt advantage. The Nuggets were simply unlucky as opposed to inferior.
When studying the Nuggets last year, one observes that they were an offensive powerhouse - finishing 1st in total points scored and 3rd in points per possession. Like other teams discussed, they were done in by their defense.
Any discussion of Denver becoming a legit title contender is based on the assumption that A) Their offensive prowess will continue and B) they will improve defensively.
The Nuggets' have swapped out Chris Andersen, Al Harrington and Aaron Affalo for Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer.
Iguodala (AI going forward)
AI represents a substantial improvement for the Nuggets. He is already known throughout the league as an elite defender and the statistics back this up - for his position his defensive rating grades out in the 90th percentile - while infrequently fouling. AI is simply one of the best wing defenders in the league - and also hits the boards hard, with a 9.6% rebounding rate - grading out in about the 85th percentile for his position. His defensive and rebounding prowess are a substantial upgrade over Affalo. AI adds another player to the Nuggets who can create their own shot and AI is a willing passer - his pace adjusted assist rate is 85% that of incumbent point guard Ty Lawson. AI represents a major upgrade for Denver.
Corey Brewer
This is a sneaky good pickup by the Nuggets that hasn't gotten a ton of attention, but is a valuable addition. Like AI, Brewer is a very strong defender - grading out at about the 80th percentile defensively - which is something he is actually known for. Brewer is also more efficient offensively than given credit for - he shoots over 50% on 2 point field goal attempts and has an impressive 9.8% turnover rate (league average is about 14). He is clearly a defensive upgrade over the departed Al Harrington.
Wilson Chandler
Chandler may find minutes tough to come by on this deep squad but his defensive indicators are nearly on par with Brewer and he also offers solid rebounding numbers for a wing player.
What about the loss of the Birdman?
All this talk about the defensive prowess of the Nuggets may bring to mind Chris Andersen, otherwise known as the Bird Man. Andersen's impact will not be noticeable, mainly because he couldn't keep himself on the court last year - he played in just 15% of the team's minutes
Due to the defensive upgrades and the Nuggets' strong rebounding prowess (virtually every major player is an adequate or better rebounder for their position save for Gallinari), the Nuggets project out as a team that will be much harder to score against from the wing positions and one that will be difficult to obtain 2nd chance points against.
The simulator tool projects that the defensive improvements should be enough to vault the Nuggets' defense up to a strong unit. The transactions that the Nuggets made in the offseason should also improve an already powerful offensive machine and this combination is projected to lead Denver to the title over Miami.
Projections (Playoff Teams denoted by *)
Northwest
Denver *
Oklahoma City *
Minnesota *
Utah *
Portland
Southwest
San Antonio *
Dallas *
New Orleans
Memphis
Houston
Pacific
Los Angeles Clippers *
Los Angeles Lakers *
Golden State
Sacramento
Phoenix
WCF: Denver over Oklahoma City
Finals: Denver over Miami
Saturday, October 13, 2012
8 Bold Predictions for the 2012-2013 NBA Season (Part 1)
I haven't posted in this blog for a while due to events in my personal life such as:
-Buying a house
-Amber coming home from military training
-Traveling for work/personal reasons
-A promotion at work
I figured a season preview based on my basketball simulator was in order.
Today we'll kick off with the Eastern Conference and discuss 4 bold predictions about that conference - all analysis is based solely off the simulator tool with other supporting stats listed.
1. The Milwaukee Bucks will win the Central Division
The East as a whole (starting in the 2 position), and this division in particular, is pretty wide open for a variety of reasons such as:
-Derrick Rose's ACL Tear
-A roster shakeup in Boston
-A predicted regression from the Pacers (more on that later)
If we assume Derrick Rose will miss a substantial portion of the season (over half), that takes the Bulls out of the running for the division title, and the simulator dislikes Indiana. But what does it like about Milwaukee so much, and how does that align with real life?
Last year the Bucks traded Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis and change, and that trade gave the Bucks a nice shot in the arm. Since the trade, the Bucks went 12-11 down the stretch - but more importantly had a point differential of +79 - a point differential of nearly 3.5 PPG. While 23 games is a small sample size, it's the most recent data point that we have about the current roster composition of the Bucks. That point differential will usually result in a team being about the 7th best team in the league. While the simulator tool doesn't think that the Bucks will be quite that good, it does project them to win the division and rates them as the 5th best team in the conference.
2. Tying into #1, the Indiana Pacers will suffer a significant regression and slip out of the playoffs.
This is the projection that the simulator tool makes that I most strongly disagree with and no stats from last year suggest the Pacers will regress; they were in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency and had only subtle roster changes - nothing that should truly move the needle. So why does the tool have the Pacers slipping from 3rd in the conference to outside the playoffs?
The answer comes down to elite talent - or a lack thereof in Indiana's case. I have a system that measures gross production - everything that a player contributes offensively and defensively combined. Last year the highest ranked Pacer was Danny Granger - at 31st. Every single projected playoff team from the East has at LEAST one player rated higher than Granger; most have two. If you're wondering why Hibbert wasn't that player, I go into that below.
Let's look another way and evaluate per minute production - after all - a deep team like the Pacers doesn't have players logging big minutes during the regular season. In that view, Granger and Hibbert are basically equals (if you're wondering why Granger is rated so highly, he is outstanding at avoiding turnovers, rebounds well for his position, is an above average defender for his position, and his poor fg% is somewhat off-set by a very high ft% and a strong 3 point % - in other words, he's not just an inefficient gunner. Granger also led the Pacers in Win Shares last year and Win Shares per 48 minutes - suggesting that my stats align with other mainstream statistics). In that view, there are at 63 players with at least as high of a gross per minute production as Hibbert.
Statistics don't tell the whole story but they do highlight important underlying factors.
Even if the statistics are flat out wrong about the projection and the Pacers manage to win 45-50 games, Indiana may be in NBA no-man land; it's highly unlikely that in a 7 game series they have the firepower to bring down the likes of Miami or Oklahoma City and their depth of talent will likely prevent them from winning the lottery (even this extremely negative projection has them as the #9 spot in the East). The long term prognosis is likely to be one of an also-ran for the Pacers as they have locked in most of their key players to long term contracts.
While I disagree with the simulator, deeper analysis shows that the Pacers lack the elite talent to truly compete for the championship as their roster is presently constructed.
3. The Washington Wizards will make the playoffs.
Before assuming that this blog is projecting to do anything once they get there, settle down. The simulator projects the Wizards to be the worst playoff team and gives them virtually no chance of defeating Miami in a 7 game series.
The reason the Wizards are projected to do so well (relatively speaking) is a formidable inside-out combination of Wall and Nene. There is a considerable amount of negative buzz surrounding John Wall, but remember - if he were still in college we would be getting ready for his senior year. This is a young man with a tremendous amount of talent who has played with a very weak supporting cast in the NBA.
If nothing else, Nene should provide Wall with a stable inside presence who he can trust getting the ball too, and even in limited minutes last year with the Wizards, Nene's gross production was superior to that of Hibbert's.
The addition of Trevor Ariza, while nothing spectacular, helps to shore up the Wizards' porous perimeter defenses and gives them a wing who rebounds well for his position. Ariza is better suited for a role where he is expected to play strong D and rebound and it appears that Washington should be a good fit for him where he can be the 'glue guy'. With the addition of Bradley Beal, Jordan Crawford coming off the bench and Shelvin Mack evolving into a strong backup PG, the Wizards should be well stocked on the wings and backcourt. We expect this team to continue to be relatively weak on the interior but Vessely showed promise in his rookie season and Kevin Seraphin has shot blocking prowess.
Again - this isn't to say that the Wizards are suddenly going to take the league by force - but there is plenty to be optimistic about in Washington (on the basketball court at least) in the forseeable future with a young core of Wall, Vessely, Beal and Mack.
The major things that could go wrong:
-I assumed Vessely would put up the same production as last year, but get starter's minutes - that combination improves the Wizards' offensive firepower. If Vessely turns out to be useless, that would be damaging.
-Bradley Beal has been compared to Ray Allen; I used Ray Allen's rookie season as a proxy for Beal. Allen didn't have an exceptional rookie season and had pedestrian numbers, but if Beal falls well short of that, it would be problematic for the Wizards.
-Nene was involved in an off the court incident this summer. If that is indicative of his behavior in Washington, the Wizards would suffer. If there is any discipline related issues with Hilario that causes him to miss playing time, the projection would move Washington out of the playoffs and put Indiana in.
4. The Atlanta Hawks will be the 2nd best team in the Eastern Conference.
At first glance, this seems like a pretty bold prediction due to the loss of Joe Johnson, but after a deeper dive, it's really not and here's some points on why:
A) Last year the Hawks had the 6th highest pythagorean win total in the NBA.
B) That was without Al Horford.
C) The Hawks re-loaded their talent aside from Horford.
D) As mentioned previously, Chicago won't be the same without Rose.
The simulator tool considers Horford to be superior to Joe Johnson, but even if we assume their equals, that essentially leaves the Hawks where they left off last season, which is EXACTLY where the simulator projects them - 6th overall. Despite losses of other pieces (Kirk Hinrich and Marvin Williams), the Hawks brought in talent that is good enough to replace them in the form of Devin Harris and Lou Williams. There is also reason to be optimistic about Ivan Johnson who should grow into a solid reserve to supplement frontcourt depth and put up solid per minute #'s (14% rebounding rate, over 50% 2 point shooting, strong defense).
Although the tool is optimistic about the Hawks overall, it still projects them to be inferior to Miami, who is projected to win the East.
Eastern Conference forecast (playoff team's with a *)
Atlantic
New York *
Boston *
Philadelphia *
Toronto
Brooklyn
Central
Milwaukee *
Chicago *
Indiana
Cleveland
Detroit
Southeast
Miami *
Atlanta *
Washington *
Orlando
Charlotte
Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Atlanta
-Buying a house
-Amber coming home from military training
-Traveling for work/personal reasons
-A promotion at work
I figured a season preview based on my basketball simulator was in order.
Today we'll kick off with the Eastern Conference and discuss 4 bold predictions about that conference - all analysis is based solely off the simulator tool with other supporting stats listed.
1. The Milwaukee Bucks will win the Central Division
The East as a whole (starting in the 2 position), and this division in particular, is pretty wide open for a variety of reasons such as:
-Derrick Rose's ACL Tear
-A roster shakeup in Boston
-A predicted regression from the Pacers (more on that later)
If we assume Derrick Rose will miss a substantial portion of the season (over half), that takes the Bulls out of the running for the division title, and the simulator dislikes Indiana. But what does it like about Milwaukee so much, and how does that align with real life?
Last year the Bucks traded Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis and change, and that trade gave the Bucks a nice shot in the arm. Since the trade, the Bucks went 12-11 down the stretch - but more importantly had a point differential of +79 - a point differential of nearly 3.5 PPG. While 23 games is a small sample size, it's the most recent data point that we have about the current roster composition of the Bucks. That point differential will usually result in a team being about the 7th best team in the league. While the simulator tool doesn't think that the Bucks will be quite that good, it does project them to win the division and rates them as the 5th best team in the conference.
2. Tying into #1, the Indiana Pacers will suffer a significant regression and slip out of the playoffs.
This is the projection that the simulator tool makes that I most strongly disagree with and no stats from last year suggest the Pacers will regress; they were in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency and had only subtle roster changes - nothing that should truly move the needle. So why does the tool have the Pacers slipping from 3rd in the conference to outside the playoffs?
The answer comes down to elite talent - or a lack thereof in Indiana's case. I have a system that measures gross production - everything that a player contributes offensively and defensively combined. Last year the highest ranked Pacer was Danny Granger - at 31st. Every single projected playoff team from the East has at LEAST one player rated higher than Granger; most have two. If you're wondering why Hibbert wasn't that player, I go into that below.
Let's look another way and evaluate per minute production - after all - a deep team like the Pacers doesn't have players logging big minutes during the regular season. In that view, Granger and Hibbert are basically equals (if you're wondering why Granger is rated so highly, he is outstanding at avoiding turnovers, rebounds well for his position, is an above average defender for his position, and his poor fg% is somewhat off-set by a very high ft% and a strong 3 point % - in other words, he's not just an inefficient gunner. Granger also led the Pacers in Win Shares last year and Win Shares per 48 minutes - suggesting that my stats align with other mainstream statistics). In that view, there are at 63 players with at least as high of a gross per minute production as Hibbert.
Statistics don't tell the whole story but they do highlight important underlying factors.
Even if the statistics are flat out wrong about the projection and the Pacers manage to win 45-50 games, Indiana may be in NBA no-man land; it's highly unlikely that in a 7 game series they have the firepower to bring down the likes of Miami or Oklahoma City and their depth of talent will likely prevent them from winning the lottery (even this extremely negative projection has them as the #9 spot in the East). The long term prognosis is likely to be one of an also-ran for the Pacers as they have locked in most of their key players to long term contracts.
While I disagree with the simulator, deeper analysis shows that the Pacers lack the elite talent to truly compete for the championship as their roster is presently constructed.
3. The Washington Wizards will make the playoffs.
Before assuming that this blog is projecting to do anything once they get there, settle down. The simulator projects the Wizards to be the worst playoff team and gives them virtually no chance of defeating Miami in a 7 game series.
The reason the Wizards are projected to do so well (relatively speaking) is a formidable inside-out combination of Wall and Nene. There is a considerable amount of negative buzz surrounding John Wall, but remember - if he were still in college we would be getting ready for his senior year. This is a young man with a tremendous amount of talent who has played with a very weak supporting cast in the NBA.
If nothing else, Nene should provide Wall with a stable inside presence who he can trust getting the ball too, and even in limited minutes last year with the Wizards, Nene's gross production was superior to that of Hibbert's.
The addition of Trevor Ariza, while nothing spectacular, helps to shore up the Wizards' porous perimeter defenses and gives them a wing who rebounds well for his position. Ariza is better suited for a role where he is expected to play strong D and rebound and it appears that Washington should be a good fit for him where he can be the 'glue guy'. With the addition of Bradley Beal, Jordan Crawford coming off the bench and Shelvin Mack evolving into a strong backup PG, the Wizards should be well stocked on the wings and backcourt. We expect this team to continue to be relatively weak on the interior but Vessely showed promise in his rookie season and Kevin Seraphin has shot blocking prowess.
Again - this isn't to say that the Wizards are suddenly going to take the league by force - but there is plenty to be optimistic about in Washington (on the basketball court at least) in the forseeable future with a young core of Wall, Vessely, Beal and Mack.
The major things that could go wrong:
-I assumed Vessely would put up the same production as last year, but get starter's minutes - that combination improves the Wizards' offensive firepower. If Vessely turns out to be useless, that would be damaging.
-Bradley Beal has been compared to Ray Allen; I used Ray Allen's rookie season as a proxy for Beal. Allen didn't have an exceptional rookie season and had pedestrian numbers, but if Beal falls well short of that, it would be problematic for the Wizards.
-Nene was involved in an off the court incident this summer. If that is indicative of his behavior in Washington, the Wizards would suffer. If there is any discipline related issues with Hilario that causes him to miss playing time, the projection would move Washington out of the playoffs and put Indiana in.
4. The Atlanta Hawks will be the 2nd best team in the Eastern Conference.
At first glance, this seems like a pretty bold prediction due to the loss of Joe Johnson, but after a deeper dive, it's really not and here's some points on why:
A) Last year the Hawks had the 6th highest pythagorean win total in the NBA.
B) That was without Al Horford.
C) The Hawks re-loaded their talent aside from Horford.
D) As mentioned previously, Chicago won't be the same without Rose.
The simulator tool considers Horford to be superior to Joe Johnson, but even if we assume their equals, that essentially leaves the Hawks where they left off last season, which is EXACTLY where the simulator projects them - 6th overall. Despite losses of other pieces (Kirk Hinrich and Marvin Williams), the Hawks brought in talent that is good enough to replace them in the form of Devin Harris and Lou Williams. There is also reason to be optimistic about Ivan Johnson who should grow into a solid reserve to supplement frontcourt depth and put up solid per minute #'s (14% rebounding rate, over 50% 2 point shooting, strong defense).
Although the tool is optimistic about the Hawks overall, it still projects them to be inferior to Miami, who is projected to win the East.
Eastern Conference forecast (playoff team's with a *)
Atlantic
New York *
Boston *
Philadelphia *
Toronto
Brooklyn
Central
Milwaukee *
Chicago *
Indiana
Cleveland
Detroit
Southeast
Miami *
Atlanta *
Washington *
Orlando
Charlotte
Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Atlanta
Friday, June 22, 2012
NBA Finals Power Rankings
I didn't post after Games 3 and 4, because due to traveling, I only saw bits and pieces of Games 3 and 4. I did watch all of Games 1, 2 and 5 and between that, box scores, recaps and the parts I saw, I feel good about writing a Finals Power Rankings.
1. Lebron James
He finally did it. He finally put it all together with a dominant 30-10-6 postseason and a 29-10-7 Finals - not to mention superb defense and showing signs of maturation as a person and a player. We can NOW call him one of the all-time greats after putting together a Finals and Playoffs on par with you know who. The real question is, can he win more? The Thunder clearly aren't going anywhere and have demonstrated the ability to learn from their defeats. Wade is still excellent but is slowing down, Bosh is clearly a glorified role player and they don't have the ability to add anything more than a mid-level exception player. In their next 2-3 drafts, it will be pivotal for them to get solid role players and how Chalmers develops will also be crucial.
2. Russell Westbrook
Before this decision (no pun intended) gets dissected (and let's face it - you're either out or all in on Westbrook), let me pose a few questions if you think Wade or Durant should be here:
A) How many games can you make a case that Wade was the best player on the floor? How about Durant? Westbrook? I score it 0, 1, 2 in that order.
B) Why on earth would you pick Wade when Westbrook outscored, rebounded and assisted him over the course of these Finals?
C) How does Durant impact the game besides scoring? How does Westbrook?
D) If we're really supposed to put Durant here, why can he still not get to his spots any time he wants against an aging Shane Battier?
I get that Westbrook is highly polarizing and that he definitely takes some stuff off the table but those are some tough questions to answer for a Durant or Wade supporter.
3. Kevin Durant
A mildly disappointing first Finals, of what I'm sure will be many for Durant. He demonstrated that he is the best scorer bar none in the league, but we already knew that (31 PPG on 55% shooting???!!!!). Durant has the ability to ascend from a great player to one of the all-time greats by:
A) Getting stronger so he's not getting pushed around so far out from the basket.
B) Learning to influence the game in ways beyond scoring.
C) Learning when to say 'guys, I got this' more consistently.
Again, not a total disaster or anything, but he should have done more.
4. Dwayne Wade
Miami winning the series may mask this, but Father Time is slowly catching up to Wade. Westbrook clearly established superiority vs Wade in these Finals and Wade's offensive game has devolved into barreling towards the basket and hoping the refs bail you out.
Think I'm being too harsh? This is the 3rd straight year where his gross production per minute has declined and he submitted the lowest % of free throw attempts: 2 point attempts of his career. I'd make the trades I proposed following Game 1 in a heartbeat.
5. Chris Bosh
This was a nice series for Mr. Bosh because I think he's finally figured out his role on this Heat team:
Hit open jumpers, rebound, defend the paint (albeit more through ball denial), be a versatile enough defender where you can guard anyone 3-5, and be able to carry the offense in short spurts to make life easier for James and Wade.
Is that worth $16 M a year? Hell no. Does that make him more of a role player than a star? Unfortunately, yes. But if the Heat are to win multiple championships, Bosh is going to have to continue his evolution towards Kevin Garnett, Circa Boston and less like the confused guy we saw last year.
6. Shane Battier
This was his destiny: Be the ultimate glue guy, knock down 3 pointers, play superb defense and do the little things. Any good team can use him - now the question is, can he repeat this effort next year.
7. Mario Chalmers
A nice little mini-coming out party for Chalmers where he showed us new pieces of his game (great, not just good Defense, the ability to beat people off the dribble and carry the offense for stretches). The downside? What did he do to have Lebron and Dwayne always bitching at him? Did he sleep with Lebron's mom? Will he get so pissed off that he does sleep with Lebron's mom? Regardless how he handles his place and how he is treated by the bigger stars on the team will be interesting to watch. There are several good teams where he would make a nice fit should the Heat decide they need to trade him (Chicago, New York, Dallas, Los Angeles (both Lakers and Clippers), OKC.
8. Erik Spoelstra
His job is safe and we don't have to hear anymore 'these guys are CRYING in this locker room!' jokes anymore or Riley conspiracy theories. He also clearly got the better of Scott Brooks, realizing who needed to play in this series and who didn't - something Brooks totally missed the boat on and helped the Heat maintain their composure long enough to avoid elimination 3 times after falling behind and making the appropriate adjustments.
9. Serge Ibaka
This series wasn't exactly Ibaka's shining moment, although he played better than Kendrick Perkins, and like Durant, it wasn't a total disaster. One would have liked to see him own the paint a little bit more than he did and aggressively step up to the challenge of containing Lebron single-handedly. Still, if nothing else, he proved to be a more reliable offensive weapon than Perkins and has at least developed his offensive game to the point where you're not playing 4 on 5 with him out there.
10. James Harden
Speaking of disappointments, this series was a huge letdown for Harden who had the worst performance vs expectations of any Thunder player coming into the series and may have cost the Thunder the series given that Durant averaged 31 ppg on 55% shooting and Westbrook at minimum, acquitted himself well (that boy COMPETED!). Harden should have been the X factor for the Thunder; outside of Durant and Westbrook they just don't have enough other ways to generate offense and Harden should have been that 3rd scoring threat, but he was too inconsistent.
1. Lebron James
He finally did it. He finally put it all together with a dominant 30-10-6 postseason and a 29-10-7 Finals - not to mention superb defense and showing signs of maturation as a person and a player. We can NOW call him one of the all-time greats after putting together a Finals and Playoffs on par with you know who. The real question is, can he win more? The Thunder clearly aren't going anywhere and have demonstrated the ability to learn from their defeats. Wade is still excellent but is slowing down, Bosh is clearly a glorified role player and they don't have the ability to add anything more than a mid-level exception player. In their next 2-3 drafts, it will be pivotal for them to get solid role players and how Chalmers develops will also be crucial.
2. Russell Westbrook
Before this decision (no pun intended) gets dissected (and let's face it - you're either out or all in on Westbrook), let me pose a few questions if you think Wade or Durant should be here:
A) How many games can you make a case that Wade was the best player on the floor? How about Durant? Westbrook? I score it 0, 1, 2 in that order.
B) Why on earth would you pick Wade when Westbrook outscored, rebounded and assisted him over the course of these Finals?
C) How does Durant impact the game besides scoring? How does Westbrook?
D) If we're really supposed to put Durant here, why can he still not get to his spots any time he wants against an aging Shane Battier?
I get that Westbrook is highly polarizing and that he definitely takes some stuff off the table but those are some tough questions to answer for a Durant or Wade supporter.
3. Kevin Durant
A mildly disappointing first Finals, of what I'm sure will be many for Durant. He demonstrated that he is the best scorer bar none in the league, but we already knew that (31 PPG on 55% shooting???!!!!). Durant has the ability to ascend from a great player to one of the all-time greats by:
A) Getting stronger so he's not getting pushed around so far out from the basket.
B) Learning to influence the game in ways beyond scoring.
C) Learning when to say 'guys, I got this' more consistently.
Again, not a total disaster or anything, but he should have done more.
4. Dwayne Wade
Miami winning the series may mask this, but Father Time is slowly catching up to Wade. Westbrook clearly established superiority vs Wade in these Finals and Wade's offensive game has devolved into barreling towards the basket and hoping the refs bail you out.
Think I'm being too harsh? This is the 3rd straight year where his gross production per minute has declined and he submitted the lowest % of free throw attempts: 2 point attempts of his career. I'd make the trades I proposed following Game 1 in a heartbeat.
5. Chris Bosh
This was a nice series for Mr. Bosh because I think he's finally figured out his role on this Heat team:
Hit open jumpers, rebound, defend the paint (albeit more through ball denial), be a versatile enough defender where you can guard anyone 3-5, and be able to carry the offense in short spurts to make life easier for James and Wade.
Is that worth $16 M a year? Hell no. Does that make him more of a role player than a star? Unfortunately, yes. But if the Heat are to win multiple championships, Bosh is going to have to continue his evolution towards Kevin Garnett, Circa Boston and less like the confused guy we saw last year.
6. Shane Battier
This was his destiny: Be the ultimate glue guy, knock down 3 pointers, play superb defense and do the little things. Any good team can use him - now the question is, can he repeat this effort next year.
7. Mario Chalmers
A nice little mini-coming out party for Chalmers where he showed us new pieces of his game (great, not just good Defense, the ability to beat people off the dribble and carry the offense for stretches). The downside? What did he do to have Lebron and Dwayne always bitching at him? Did he sleep with Lebron's mom? Will he get so pissed off that he does sleep with Lebron's mom? Regardless how he handles his place and how he is treated by the bigger stars on the team will be interesting to watch. There are several good teams where he would make a nice fit should the Heat decide they need to trade him (Chicago, New York, Dallas, Los Angeles (both Lakers and Clippers), OKC.
8. Erik Spoelstra
His job is safe and we don't have to hear anymore 'these guys are CRYING in this locker room!' jokes anymore or Riley conspiracy theories. He also clearly got the better of Scott Brooks, realizing who needed to play in this series and who didn't - something Brooks totally missed the boat on and helped the Heat maintain their composure long enough to avoid elimination 3 times after falling behind and making the appropriate adjustments.
9. Serge Ibaka
This series wasn't exactly Ibaka's shining moment, although he played better than Kendrick Perkins, and like Durant, it wasn't a total disaster. One would have liked to see him own the paint a little bit more than he did and aggressively step up to the challenge of containing Lebron single-handedly. Still, if nothing else, he proved to be a more reliable offensive weapon than Perkins and has at least developed his offensive game to the point where you're not playing 4 on 5 with him out there.
10. James Harden
Speaking of disappointments, this series was a huge letdown for Harden who had the worst performance vs expectations of any Thunder player coming into the series and may have cost the Thunder the series given that Durant averaged 31 ppg on 55% shooting and Westbrook at minimum, acquitted himself well (that boy COMPETED!). Harden should have been the X factor for the Thunder; outside of Durant and Westbrook they just don't have enough other ways to generate offense and Harden should have been that 3rd scoring threat, but he was too inconsistent.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Power Rankings: Game 2 - Return of the King
1. Lebron James
Forget the stats - as impressive as they were - the most telling image that will stand out in my mind was the last meaningful possession of the game when he stopped Durant, ended up with the ball and knocked down two free throws to win the game. During this postseason, James has started to erase the ghosts of playoffs past - despite a lengthy absence from Bosh and inconsistent effectiveness from Wade.
2. Kevin Durant
Another dominant 4th quarter to be sure - but he needs to assert himself earlier so that the Thunder don't need 4th quarter theatrics to pull out the win. Another alarming trend has reared it's ugly head - Durant - more than any other dominant player in recent memory - struggles to affect the game if he's not scoring. We're picking knits here to be sure - but these two issues will determine when Durant will get his first championship - 2012 or sometime in the future.
3. Dwayne Wade
Wade nicely regained his footing - although it is starting to appear doubtful that we'll see him make the top 2 of this list going forward. Wade set the tone for the Heat early, coming out aggressive at both ends of the court and sending a message that he was out to avenge his sub-par Game 1. I stand by my trade comments from Game 1.
4. Russell Westbrook
File his game in the 'stats don't tell the whole story' cabinet - that was about as awful a 27 point, 8 rebound and 7 assist performance as you can possibly have. His first half was abysmal as he forced shots, took the Thunder out of their offense single-handedly and dominated the ball - taking it out of Durant's hands, eerily reminiscent of last year's playoffs.
5. Chris Bosh
Speaking of bounce back games...holy Bosh! The last time he was this effective was last year's conference finals when he made Carlos Boozer his bitch. The best part of tonight wasn't that he had a 25 point 10 rebound game - it was that he was a physical presence inside, hauling down 16 boards, playing outstanding interior defense and successfully occupying the paint offensively.
6. James Harden
On a per minute impact, he would be #3 on this list, but Scott Brooks' incompetence limited Harden to 30 minutes. The Thunder should never be down 16 by the time Harden first enters a game - and he single handedly kept the Thunder from getting KO'd n the first half. One must wonder if Brooks will play Harden greater minutes in Game 3 as an adjustment.
7. Shane Battier
Robert Horry 2.0. Wow.
8. Serge Ibaka
The Thunder 's 2nd best player in the first half, Ibaka was tremendous in protecting the paint from numerous Heat defenders and it felt like he saved the Thunder about 20 points.
9. Mario Chalmers
His offensive game wasn't as effective as it was in Game 1, but his defensive efforts against Westbrook were invaluable - had he not rendered Westbrook completely ineffective early, the Heat likely would not have withstood the Thunder's late surge.
10. Oklahoma City Fans
Right now Oklahoma City is Megan Calvet to Seattle's Betty Francis - except if Betty were actually likeable and Megan was never likeable, sexy or funny. No one wants to like the mistress and she will always have a negative stigma associated with her; but these fans have created the same feel at Chesepeake Arena as the crowd at Yum Center has for Louisville men's basketball. At least we the tax payers didn't fund that...oh wait. We're going to stop this now before I start sounding like my Dad does about Lucas Oil.
Forget the stats - as impressive as they were - the most telling image that will stand out in my mind was the last meaningful possession of the game when he stopped Durant, ended up with the ball and knocked down two free throws to win the game. During this postseason, James has started to erase the ghosts of playoffs past - despite a lengthy absence from Bosh and inconsistent effectiveness from Wade.
2. Kevin Durant
Another dominant 4th quarter to be sure - but he needs to assert himself earlier so that the Thunder don't need 4th quarter theatrics to pull out the win. Another alarming trend has reared it's ugly head - Durant - more than any other dominant player in recent memory - struggles to affect the game if he's not scoring. We're picking knits here to be sure - but these two issues will determine when Durant will get his first championship - 2012 or sometime in the future.
3. Dwayne Wade
Wade nicely regained his footing - although it is starting to appear doubtful that we'll see him make the top 2 of this list going forward. Wade set the tone for the Heat early, coming out aggressive at both ends of the court and sending a message that he was out to avenge his sub-par Game 1. I stand by my trade comments from Game 1.
4. Russell Westbrook
File his game in the 'stats don't tell the whole story' cabinet - that was about as awful a 27 point, 8 rebound and 7 assist performance as you can possibly have. His first half was abysmal as he forced shots, took the Thunder out of their offense single-handedly and dominated the ball - taking it out of Durant's hands, eerily reminiscent of last year's playoffs.
5. Chris Bosh
Speaking of bounce back games...holy Bosh! The last time he was this effective was last year's conference finals when he made Carlos Boozer his bitch. The best part of tonight wasn't that he had a 25 point 10 rebound game - it was that he was a physical presence inside, hauling down 16 boards, playing outstanding interior defense and successfully occupying the paint offensively.
6. James Harden
On a per minute impact, he would be #3 on this list, but Scott Brooks' incompetence limited Harden to 30 minutes. The Thunder should never be down 16 by the time Harden first enters a game - and he single handedly kept the Thunder from getting KO'd n the first half. One must wonder if Brooks will play Harden greater minutes in Game 3 as an adjustment.
7. Shane Battier
Robert Horry 2.0. Wow.
8. Serge Ibaka
The Thunder 's 2nd best player in the first half, Ibaka was tremendous in protecting the paint from numerous Heat defenders and it felt like he saved the Thunder about 20 points.
9. Mario Chalmers
His offensive game wasn't as effective as it was in Game 1, but his defensive efforts against Westbrook were invaluable - had he not rendered Westbrook completely ineffective early, the Heat likely would not have withstood the Thunder's late surge.
10. Oklahoma City Fans
Right now Oklahoma City is Megan Calvet to Seattle's Betty Francis - except if Betty were actually likeable and Megan was never likeable, sexy or funny. No one wants to like the mistress and she will always have a negative stigma associated with her; but these fans have created the same feel at Chesepeake Arena as the crowd at Yum Center has for Louisville men's basketball. At least we the tax payers didn't fund that...oh wait. We're going to stop this now before I start sounding like my Dad does about Lucas Oil.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
NBA Finals Game 1 Power Rankings
1. Russell Westbrook
Durant may have been the closer, but Westbrook was the one who carried them while they were struggling and did an outstanding job setting up Durant. 27-11-8 and lockdown second half defense is damn impressive. Coming into the series, my expectation was that Westbrook would have at least one game where you would think 'Wow, he could win Finals MVP!', two games where he made Wade look downright ancient (this was one) and one or two bonehead games.
2. Kevin Durant
After being a bit too passive for my taste through 3, Durant cranked up the defensive intensity and the scoring load in the second half - closing out the game for the Thunder.
3. Lebron James
It's not his fault. It's really not. He scored 30 points, snagged 9 rebounds and grabbed 4 assists - not to mention wreaking havoc on the defensive end early by disrupting OKC's passing lanes with 4 steals. He just needs more help.
4. Dwayne Wade
Let's not kid ourselves - there is a chasm separating the top 3 from him. If not for him assisting the early 3 point barrage that gave the Heat an early lead, he would be lower on this list.
In related news, if Miami loses, I would offer Wade for Bynum, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard. Immediately. It's not just tonight - he really looks like he has lost a step or two.
5. Nick Collison
After stealing Shane Battier's thunder (see what I did there?) for key role player who could swing this series, it will be interesting to see what kind of run Scott Brooks gives him for the rest of the series; he was the most effective of OKC's 3 big men tonight.
6. Mario Chalmers
I loved what he did early, but he totally disappeared in the second half. If Bosh's injury is still lingering and my above hypothesis on Wade is even remotely correct, Chalmers is going to have to morph into Super Mario for Miami to have a chance.
7. Shane Battier
For the first quarter, all I could think of was the Robert Horry game from Game 5 of the 2005 Finals.
8. Thabo Seflosha
This is why numbers don't tell the whole story. He made James WORK for his 30 points and was highly effective against anyone he defended. He also kept James Harden glued to the bench in the 4th quarter.
9. Chris Bosh Haters
If Miami loses this series, it is widely believed that the Heat will be broken up. 10 points and 5 rebounds isn't going to cut it, buddy.
10. Serge Ibaka
He wasn't spectacular, no, but he played solid defense, helped OKC have a +8 board advantage and didn't take anything off the table.
Durant may have been the closer, but Westbrook was the one who carried them while they were struggling and did an outstanding job setting up Durant. 27-11-8 and lockdown second half defense is damn impressive. Coming into the series, my expectation was that Westbrook would have at least one game where you would think 'Wow, he could win Finals MVP!', two games where he made Wade look downright ancient (this was one) and one or two bonehead games.
2. Kevin Durant
After being a bit too passive for my taste through 3, Durant cranked up the defensive intensity and the scoring load in the second half - closing out the game for the Thunder.
3. Lebron James
It's not his fault. It's really not. He scored 30 points, snagged 9 rebounds and grabbed 4 assists - not to mention wreaking havoc on the defensive end early by disrupting OKC's passing lanes with 4 steals. He just needs more help.
4. Dwayne Wade
Let's not kid ourselves - there is a chasm separating the top 3 from him. If not for him assisting the early 3 point barrage that gave the Heat an early lead, he would be lower on this list.
In related news, if Miami loses, I would offer Wade for Bynum, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard. Immediately. It's not just tonight - he really looks like he has lost a step or two.
5. Nick Collison
After stealing Shane Battier's thunder (see what I did there?) for key role player who could swing this series, it will be interesting to see what kind of run Scott Brooks gives him for the rest of the series; he was the most effective of OKC's 3 big men tonight.
6. Mario Chalmers
I loved what he did early, but he totally disappeared in the second half. If Bosh's injury is still lingering and my above hypothesis on Wade is even remotely correct, Chalmers is going to have to morph into Super Mario for Miami to have a chance.
7. Shane Battier
For the first quarter, all I could think of was the Robert Horry game from Game 5 of the 2005 Finals.
8. Thabo Seflosha
This is why numbers don't tell the whole story. He made James WORK for his 30 points and was highly effective against anyone he defended. He also kept James Harden glued to the bench in the 4th quarter.
9. Chris Bosh Haters
If Miami loses this series, it is widely believed that the Heat will be broken up. 10 points and 5 rebounds isn't going to cut it, buddy.
10. Serge Ibaka
He wasn't spectacular, no, but he played solid defense, helped OKC have a +8 board advantage and didn't take anything off the table.
Sunday, June 3, 2012
Mission: Protect the Future of the US (Part 5 - Finale)
In parts 1-4 in this series, we outlined in lengthy detail a proposal that would have a reasonably high probability of keeping the United States in strong fiscal/financial standing if implemented. This proposal is not the only way to achieve that end, but in my own mind, it is the best way to get there. Any proposal meant to get the U.S. Deficit under control for the long term will face significant criticisms from both sides of the political aisle. What I'm going to do is address 3 hypothetical questions that might be raised by a liberal and a conservative that come to mind when viewing this proposal. At the end, all sources will be listed.
Liberal #1:
Your proposal raises income taxes considerably on those who can least afford to pay. How do you justify this?
A: Presently, 47% of the population pays no federal income taxes - this is a widely known fact. While we would in fact be raising federal income taxes on that group, we would simultaneously be reducing their tax burden through payroll taxes - thus helping the 'working poor'. In fact, the payroll tax rate would fall from over 9% to 2.5% under my proposal; offsetting part of the income tax hike. Additionally, employers would have zero responsibility for providing health care for this class of individual, and the 'mean' employer has seen their overall tax burden fall through this proposal. In the aggregate, this proposal has reduced barriers to hiring the working poor, enabling them to have greater economic mobility. Bear in mind however that part of the reason they would have to pay something under my proposal comes back to an all too familiar phrase - we can't afford for them to not pay anything through Federal Income Taxes.
Liberal #2:
Under your proposal, someone like Mitt Romney will pay a lower proportion of his income in taxes than someone earning $40,000 a year at a job. How do you justify this?
A: This has a two part response.
1) This proposal would raise taxes on Mitt Romney, per his tax return.
2) One of the major pillars of this proposal is that it looks to encourage investment and entreprenuership. Through investments, Romney is providing capital to firms and businesses. This capital allows firms to hire, to invest in R&D, to open new factories, to start new wings of the business, develop new technologies, etc. If the firm employing the individual in the question did not have capital, they would not be able to hire them. A pro-growth policy must encourage individuals to invest and start their own businesses by instituting lower tax rates for them.
Liberal #3:
By stripping away or reducing so many Federal Agencies, you also reduced the number of jobs. Are you worried about the economic impacts?
A:
1) The jobs that have been stripped away were largely funded on borrowed money. Funding these jobs has the same effect as borrowing money to give away in a lottery. The reality is that all government jobs are funded by A) Taxation B) Deficit Spending C) Inflation.
In the long run, these jobs that have been eliminated would cost more than any multiplier effect - because the size of the interest on the deficit would wipe out their impact.
2) Barriers to hiring have been reduced; as the marginal cost of labor has shrunk, so will the demand for said labor.
3) Crowding out Effects. The link is a simpler explanation of the impact of high, sustained long term government spending on private investment.
Conservative Issues
While a Democrat would approve of many of the over-arching themes (reduction in military spending, increase in taxes on the 'rich', the liberal slant on social issues, the national health care plan) and likely find issues with the details/execution, a Republican would be upset about three key themes:
1. Military Spending Reduction
As noted in part 3, when accounting for inflation, this plan proposes higher levels of spending on Defense than at any point in the 1970's; an era where we were engaged in Vietnam for the first half of the decade.
2. The National Health Administration
As noted in parts 2 and 3, the U.S. spends more per capita than any other nation in the world on health care, with middling results. Aside from that, I am not a physician. I care more about getting value from our health care system then who is the provider.
In this link, single payer issues are addressed at a length that this article does not have time to address.
3. Taxes
From the Bush to the Romney to the Palin to the Ron Paul, each major republican archetype is going to have trouble swallowing a tax hike. There are 2 major reasons why my proposal institutes a tax hike:
1) Deficits. This proposal reduces nearly 20% of Federal spending while instituting a single payer health care system. While that's a substantial reduction to be sure, the fact remains that a net 33% reduction in Federal spending from present would be needed, just to prevent any tax increases being required; that would still leave Americans facing the health care issues that they do today. Bottom line: The deficit chasm is so wide, that it is virtually impossible to do through spending reduction alone. This proposal tries to close the deficit chasm, while simultaneously provide meaningful health care reform AND change the tax code. Which leads to...
2) Efficiency. This proposal tries to raise taxes in a way that will have minimal disruption on the overall economy.
A) A large portion of the tax increase comes through marijuana, prostitution, divorce and dead folks.
B) Without credits and deductions in place, profit maximization now becomes the name of the game, as opposed to engaging in tax reduction behavior.
C) Reduction in taxes that businesses pay.
D) Reduction in obstacles to hiring.
E) Encouragements for investing and entreprenuership.
Sources
Liberal #1:
Your proposal raises income taxes considerably on those who can least afford to pay. How do you justify this?
A: Presently, 47% of the population pays no federal income taxes - this is a widely known fact. While we would in fact be raising federal income taxes on that group, we would simultaneously be reducing their tax burden through payroll taxes - thus helping the 'working poor'. In fact, the payroll tax rate would fall from over 9% to 2.5% under my proposal; offsetting part of the income tax hike. Additionally, employers would have zero responsibility for providing health care for this class of individual, and the 'mean' employer has seen their overall tax burden fall through this proposal. In the aggregate, this proposal has reduced barriers to hiring the working poor, enabling them to have greater economic mobility. Bear in mind however that part of the reason they would have to pay something under my proposal comes back to an all too familiar phrase - we can't afford for them to not pay anything through Federal Income Taxes.
Liberal #2:
Under your proposal, someone like Mitt Romney will pay a lower proportion of his income in taxes than someone earning $40,000 a year at a job. How do you justify this?
A: This has a two part response.
1) This proposal would raise taxes on Mitt Romney, per his tax return.
2) One of the major pillars of this proposal is that it looks to encourage investment and entreprenuership. Through investments, Romney is providing capital to firms and businesses. This capital allows firms to hire, to invest in R&D, to open new factories, to start new wings of the business, develop new technologies, etc. If the firm employing the individual in the question did not have capital, they would not be able to hire them. A pro-growth policy must encourage individuals to invest and start their own businesses by instituting lower tax rates for them.
Liberal #3:
By stripping away or reducing so many Federal Agencies, you also reduced the number of jobs. Are you worried about the economic impacts?
A:
1) The jobs that have been stripped away were largely funded on borrowed money. Funding these jobs has the same effect as borrowing money to give away in a lottery. The reality is that all government jobs are funded by A) Taxation B) Deficit Spending C) Inflation.
In the long run, these jobs that have been eliminated would cost more than any multiplier effect - because the size of the interest on the deficit would wipe out their impact.
2) Barriers to hiring have been reduced; as the marginal cost of labor has shrunk, so will the demand for said labor.
3) Crowding out Effects. The link is a simpler explanation of the impact of high, sustained long term government spending on private investment.
Conservative Issues
While a Democrat would approve of many of the over-arching themes (reduction in military spending, increase in taxes on the 'rich', the liberal slant on social issues, the national health care plan) and likely find issues with the details/execution, a Republican would be upset about three key themes:
1. Military Spending Reduction
As noted in part 3, when accounting for inflation, this plan proposes higher levels of spending on Defense than at any point in the 1970's; an era where we were engaged in Vietnam for the first half of the decade.
2. The National Health Administration
As noted in parts 2 and 3, the U.S. spends more per capita than any other nation in the world on health care, with middling results. Aside from that, I am not a physician. I care more about getting value from our health care system then who is the provider.
In this link, single payer issues are addressed at a length that this article does not have time to address.
3. Taxes
From the Bush to the Romney to the Palin to the Ron Paul, each major republican archetype is going to have trouble swallowing a tax hike. There are 2 major reasons why my proposal institutes a tax hike:
1) Deficits. This proposal reduces nearly 20% of Federal spending while instituting a single payer health care system. While that's a substantial reduction to be sure, the fact remains that a net 33% reduction in Federal spending from present would be needed, just to prevent any tax increases being required; that would still leave Americans facing the health care issues that they do today. Bottom line: The deficit chasm is so wide, that it is virtually impossible to do through spending reduction alone. This proposal tries to close the deficit chasm, while simultaneously provide meaningful health care reform AND change the tax code. Which leads to...
2) Efficiency. This proposal tries to raise taxes in a way that will have minimal disruption on the overall economy.
A) A large portion of the tax increase comes through marijuana, prostitution, divorce and dead folks.
B) Without credits and deductions in place, profit maximization now becomes the name of the game, as opposed to engaging in tax reduction behavior.
C) Reduction in taxes that businesses pay.
D) Reduction in obstacles to hiring.
E) Encouragements for investing and entreprenuership.
Sources
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