Super Bowl Preview

The following is an excerpt from a letter to my wife, who is a huge Patriots fan and in military training.


I guess I’ll give you my Super Bowl thoughts.

If I’m New England, I come out running. The strength of the Giants is their pass rush and passing game. Running chews up the clock keeping the passing game out of it and slows down the pass rush. Last week my 49ers were pretty effective running the ball against the Giants and I feel like New England could do the same. According to footballoutsiders, New England had the 4th strongest rushing attack in the league and New York was middling against the run. This will wear down the pass rushers and allow New England to open it up offensively in the 2nd half against the Giants weak secondary. Gronkowski IS expected to play.

By contrast, I would take a more aggressive posture if I’m the Giants. I know New England’s secondary is weak and I would target it aggressively. I would throw the ball utilizing my excellent receiving corps and try and carve NE up and force them into a shootout where my pass rush can be more effective.

I feel like New England’s offensive line and secondary will determine the game. The offensive line is very good and must not allow the Giants’ pass rush to take over. If they are effective, it doesn’t matter if they have to throw and the media has overhyped Eli grossly. I have a coworker who is a very smart guy who went so far as to say Eli is better than Brady. Defensively, the secondary must be competent and not allow the Giants to score every time down the field. If they do those two things effectively, I don’t think there’s any way the Giants will win this game.

Prediction: This line has moved a full point in many sportsbooks in the Giants’ favor, suggesting that heavy money is coming in on the Giants’ side. The sportsbooks make money – the public loses money. I feel like New England’s offensive line will hold and that they will successfully execute the type of game plan I outlined. We’ve seen the Giants’ offense struggle in two of their three playoff games and their getting too much hype. New England 31 Giants 27