The Tournament came to a close tonight with a surprising winner in Connecticut, so it's time to recap the Rankings Challenge and determine a winner.
First, I'll quickly run through the computers' Final Four projections:
Only ESPN BPI projected a Kentucky victory over Wisconsin.
All computers incorrectly predicted Florida would handle UCONN.
Only myself, Massey & Silver predicted that UCONN would defeat Kentucky tonight.
The final standings:
Silver (Champion)
KenPom -4
Stanford - 4
Massey - 4
Trevor - 5
Myself - 6
ESPN BPI - 6
Sagarin -7
At least I didn't finish last.
The finish raises an interesting question about Silver's method. Was he really that much better? In a way, his dominance comes with an asterisk. Due to the number of permutations, I hadn't gone through and analyzed hypothetical match-ups on Silver's site; as each round came up, I looked at who Silver had winning each game (except for his initial Final 4 & Championship projection). What I initially failed to take into account is that Silver's bracket updated with new information; something that the other 7 computers did not have. Essentially, Silver's projection had a head start on the rest of the computers by the end.
Silver's blog (the FiveThirtyEight) has since released an archive of their various projections.
I went back and cross-checked their initial projections against what their up-to-date projection had and they flip-flopped on four picks (Iowa State-UConn, Michigan-Kentucky, Uconn-Kentucky, Dayton-Stanford) to the correct pick. If you were to use their initial projection, the new standings look quite a bit differently:
Silver (Co-Champion)
KenPom (Co-Champion)
Stanford (Co-Champion)
Massey - (Co-Champion)
Trevor -1
Myself -2
ESPN BPI -2
Sagarin -3
Using this adjustment, Silver is effectively co-champion as opposed to outright champion and no computer embarrassed itself (unlike the RPI last year).
As the FiveThirtyEight notes in their initial preview, the projection's core methodology is centered around other projections. For kicks, I stripped Silver's projections from the rest and built a poll of the remaining 7 computers and what I found was fascinating (to me at least). The poll of the 7 computers would have also been a co-champion of the contest. This seems to confirm that whenever possible, multiple (and even diverging) points of views and projections should be used.
This was a fun exercise and I expect that I will repeat it next year.
Monday, April 7, 2014
Friday, March 28, 2014
Elite 8 Preview from the Computers
The standings:
Silver (Leader)
KemPom - 3
Stanford -3
Massey - 4
Trevor - 4
Myself - 6
ESPN BPI - 6
Sagarin - 6
The East Region has really been where Silver picked up ground. Every time there was a split vote, Silver got it right.
In the South, all computers pick Florida to advance to the Final Four.
In the West, all computers project Arizona to advance to the Final Four.
These two were unanimous picks to reach the Final Four at the beginning. All but Silver have their original champion alive.
In the East, all computers project Michigan State to advance to the Final Four. If Michigan State wins, Silver would increase his lead on the other computers.
In the Midwest, Silver & ESPN BPI take Kentucky; all other computers take Michigan.
The unanimous final projection by all computers is Arizona-Florida.
Silver (Leader)
KemPom - 3
Stanford -3
Massey - 4
Trevor - 4
Myself - 6
ESPN BPI - 6
Sagarin - 6
The East Region has really been where Silver picked up ground. Every time there was a split vote, Silver got it right.
In the South, all computers pick Florida to advance to the Final Four.
In the West, all computers project Arizona to advance to the Final Four.
These two were unanimous picks to reach the Final Four at the beginning. All but Silver have their original champion alive.
In the East, all computers project Michigan State to advance to the Final Four. If Michigan State wins, Silver would increase his lead on the other computers.
In the Midwest, Silver & ESPN BPI take Kentucky; all other computers take Michigan.
The unanimous final projection by all computers is Arizona-Florida.
Sunday, March 23, 2014
The Computers preview the Sweet 16 & Elite 8
South
All computers take Florida over UCLA
Trevor, Silver & myself expect the Flyers to continue their Cinderella run against Stanford; the other 5 take Stanford.
Florida is heavy favorites to reach the Final 4.
East
Silver & Stanford take Sparty over Virginia; the other 6 computers project that Virginia will survive. KenPom, Massey & myself still hold the possibility of getting a Final 4 bonus point from Virginia; Silver still holds the possibility of a Final 4 Bonus point from Sparty.
Silver stands alone on picking UConn if you're looking for an upset.
All computers except Stanford and Trevor expect that the winner of Virginia-Michigan State will carry the region; those two computers expect Iowa State to carry the region.
Midwest
All computers project Louisville to beat Kentucky.
KenPom stands alone in projecting Tennessee to beat Michigan; Tennessee was 11th overall in his last pre-Tournament ranking.
Trevor is the only computer to have Michigan in the Final Four at this junction; all other computers project Louisville to take the region.
Stanford, KenPom, Sagarin, Silver & myself still have a chance to get the Final 4 Bonus Point from Louisville.
West
As you might expect, all computers expect an Arizona-Wisconsin showdown in the Elite 8. All computers had Arizona reaching the Final 4 originally.
All computers take Florida over UCLA
Trevor, Silver & myself expect the Flyers to continue their Cinderella run against Stanford; the other 5 take Stanford.
Florida is heavy favorites to reach the Final 4.
East
Silver & Stanford take Sparty over Virginia; the other 6 computers project that Virginia will survive. KenPom, Massey & myself still hold the possibility of getting a Final 4 bonus point from Virginia; Silver still holds the possibility of a Final 4 Bonus point from Sparty.
Silver stands alone on picking UConn if you're looking for an upset.
All computers except Stanford and Trevor expect that the winner of Virginia-Michigan State will carry the region; those two computers expect Iowa State to carry the region.
Midwest
All computers project Louisville to beat Kentucky.
KenPom stands alone in projecting Tennessee to beat Michigan; Tennessee was 11th overall in his last pre-Tournament ranking.
Trevor is the only computer to have Michigan in the Final Four at this junction; all other computers project Louisville to take the region.
Stanford, KenPom, Sagarin, Silver & myself still have a chance to get the Final 4 Bonus Point from Louisville.
West
As you might expect, all computers expect an Arizona-Wisconsin showdown in the Elite 8. All computers had Arizona reaching the Final 4 originally.
Friday, March 21, 2014
Rankings Challenge Update 3/21/14
After finishing first in last year's Challenge, I now sit in last place.
All 8 computers are in agreement that all the higher seeded teams will win their games this weekend (assuming that UCLA holds on).
The standings:
KenPom/Silver - leads
Silver - 1 back
Stanford/Massey/Trevor - 2 back
Sagarin - 3 back
ESPN BPI - 4 back
Andrade - 5 back
Of the computers that are being used for the Challenge this year, KenPom finished last in 2013.
I have no idea if this means anything.
All 8 computers are in agreement that all the higher seeded teams will win their games this weekend (assuming that UCLA holds on).
The standings:
KenPom/Silver - leads
Silver - 1 back
Stanford/Massey/Trevor - 2 back
Sagarin - 3 back
ESPN BPI - 4 back
Andrade - 5 back
Of the computers that are being used for the Challenge this year, KenPom finished last in 2013.
I have no idea if this means anything.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Rankings Challenge Update 3/20/14
So far here are the standings.
Massey (leader). Massey has taken the lead on the strength of getting all of the First Four games correct. His faith in NC State was justified.
KenPom -1
Silver -1
Trevor - 1
KenPom & Silver got all but the NC State game right of the play-ins. Trevor started with a leg up due to his accuracy in predicting the field, but both of the teams he felt didn't deserve to be in won their first Tournament game, so Silver/KenPom have upside that he does not.
Sagarin -2
Stanford -2
ESPN BPI - 2
All of these computers incorrectly missed the Iowa-Tennessee and Xavier-NC State games.
Myself -3
After winning this "challenge" last year, I am presently bringing up the rear. Ugh.
Massey (leader). Massey has taken the lead on the strength of getting all of the First Four games correct. His faith in NC State was justified.
KenPom -1
Silver -1
Trevor - 1
KenPom & Silver got all but the NC State game right of the play-ins. Trevor started with a leg up due to his accuracy in predicting the field, but both of the teams he felt didn't deserve to be in won their first Tournament game, so Silver/KenPom have upside that he does not.
Sagarin -2
Stanford -2
ESPN BPI - 2
All of these computers incorrectly missed the Iowa-Tennessee and Xavier-NC State games.
Myself -3
After winning this "challenge" last year, I am presently bringing up the rear. Ugh.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Final CBB Rankings 3-16-14
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