Sunday, December 23, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
Some quick links
Sportswriters need to do some real analysis
Full Disclosure: I'm a 49ers fan.
The criticism of New England's decision to go for it last night is odd. Consider the situation:
4th and 2 at about your own 15, 2 timeouts left, just over 2 minutes to go, down 7.
If you go for it and fail, sure, the game is almost certainly over. On the flipside, it's just 2 yards and if successful, you have plenty of time to score a touchdown.
If you decide to punt, consider what must happen: You must force the 49ers into a 3 and out, then get the ball back and have to drive about 90 yards with no timeouts in about a minute and a half. Which is more plausible: Getting the 2 yards and then scoring on that drive - or forcing a 49er punt and having to drive the same length of the field with fewer resources?
When you put some clear metrics behind it, the decision becomes more obvious - Brian Burke's 4th down calculator implies that you should go for it, if you think you even have about a 5% chance of success. Certainly a Tom Brady led offense has at least a 5% chance of getting that 4th down.
Obama and guns
My deepest sympathies go out to the families friends and all those affected by the recent shootings in CT. Nothing I can say will eloquently address this situation so I will not try.
It is more than reasonable to have a discussion about taking policy actions to make sure this horrific event is never repeated and one would hope that the President of the United States would take the lead.
However, the above article raises serious doubts about President Obama's aptitude in this subject matter. The quotes by the President reveal him to be startlingly ignorant; he does not seem to be prepared for the critical discussion ahead.
A lesson for the U.S. on the cost of welfare
The German Chancellor highlights the real business risk associated with high levels of welfare spending and the risks to growth it poses. This is especially relevant in the face of recent cliff talks and President Obama's unwillingness to make serious spending cuts.
Full Disclosure: I'm a 49ers fan.
The criticism of New England's decision to go for it last night is odd. Consider the situation:
4th and 2 at about your own 15, 2 timeouts left, just over 2 minutes to go, down 7.
If you go for it and fail, sure, the game is almost certainly over. On the flipside, it's just 2 yards and if successful, you have plenty of time to score a touchdown.
If you decide to punt, consider what must happen: You must force the 49ers into a 3 and out, then get the ball back and have to drive about 90 yards with no timeouts in about a minute and a half. Which is more plausible: Getting the 2 yards and then scoring on that drive - or forcing a 49er punt and having to drive the same length of the field with fewer resources?
When you put some clear metrics behind it, the decision becomes more obvious - Brian Burke's 4th down calculator implies that you should go for it, if you think you even have about a 5% chance of success. Certainly a Tom Brady led offense has at least a 5% chance of getting that 4th down.
Obama and guns
My deepest sympathies go out to the families friends and all those affected by the recent shootings in CT. Nothing I can say will eloquently address this situation so I will not try.
It is more than reasonable to have a discussion about taking policy actions to make sure this horrific event is never repeated and one would hope that the President of the United States would take the lead.
However, the above article raises serious doubts about President Obama's aptitude in this subject matter. The quotes by the President reveal him to be startlingly ignorant; he does not seem to be prepared for the critical discussion ahead.
A lesson for the U.S. on the cost of welfare
The German Chancellor highlights the real business risk associated with high levels of welfare spending and the risks to growth it poses. This is especially relevant in the face of recent cliff talks and President Obama's unwillingness to make serious spending cuts.
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