1-8-12 College Basketball Ratings

1	Duke	4.26218	1
2	Syracuse	4.21799	2
3	Baylor	4.10833	3
4	Seton Hall	3.75670	4
5	Creighton	3.56538	5
6	Murray State	3.50000	6
7	Georgetown	3.32628	7
8	Indiana	3.31250	8
9	Kansas	3.27083	9
10	Michigan State	3.26339	10
11	Gonzaga	3.24551	11
12	Alabama	3.10000	12
13	Kansas State	3.09375	13
14	Kentucky	3.08750	14
15	UNLV	2.93403	15
16	Marquette	2.83594	16
17	Ohio State	2.82353	17
18	Temple	2.82232	18
19	Missouri	2.79643	19
20	Virginia	2.79286	20
21	Iona	2.77945	21
22	Illinois	2.72794	22
23	Southern Miss	2.72206	23
24	Dayton	2.59766	24
25	Louisville	2.52885	25
26	North Carolina	2.52232	26
27	Michigan	2.40505	27
28	Ohio	2.38750	28
29	West Virginia	2.32617	29
30	Wichita State	2.30833	30
31	Northern Iowa	2.29688	31
32	Connecticut	2.25000	32
33	San Diego State	2.23462	33
34	Harvard	2.23333	34
35	Denver	2.18029	35
36	Saint Mary's	2.14844	36
37	Purdue	2.08594	37
38	Vanderbilt	2.06212	38
39	Oral Roberts	1.98859	39
40	Virginia Tech	1.93750	40
41	Middle Tennessee State	1.93529	41
42	Minnesota	1.83984	42
43	Stanford	1.73438	43
44	Wisconsin	1.72500	44
45	St. Joseph's (PA)	1.60625	45
46	Northwestern	1.58939	46
47	Davidson	1.58929	47
48	Cleveland State	1.57931	48
49	Wagner	1.56042	49
50	New Mexico	1.51897	50
51	Memphis	1.48333	51
52	Ole Miss	1.47167	52
53	Iowa State	1.44038	53
54	Missouri State	1.42188	54
55	Mississippi State	1.39724	55
56	NC State	1.36174	56
57	Marshall	1.34394	57
58	Charlotte	1.31310	58
59	Xavier	1.27583	59
60	California	1.24805	60
61	Brigham Young	1.22569	61
62	Long Beach State	1.21719	62
63	Nevada	1.20000	63
64	Saint Louis	1.17308	64
65	South Dakota State	1.14957	65
66	Buffalo	1.13799	66
67	Colorado State	1.11429	67
68	Florida	1.03906	68
69	Oregon	1.01023	69
70	College of Charleston	0.96742	70
71	UCF	0.95833	71
72	LSU	0.94962	72
73	Illinois State	0.92538	73
74	Miami (FL)	0.91964	74
75	Robert Morris	0.90184	75
76	Maryland	0.86538	76
77	Indiana State	0.77333	77
78	Arkansas	0.75000	78
79	Oklahoma	0.74375	79
80	Arizona	0.70000	80
81	Weber State	0.69167	81
82	North Dakota State	0.68788	82
83	Kent State	0.68661	83
84	Texas	0.68409	84
85	La Salle	0.67578	85
86	Colorado	0.67273	86
87	Wyoming	0.60897	87
88	Lamar	0.56250	88
89	Wake Forest	0.55333	89
90	Milwaukee	0.53743	90
91	George Mason	0.53711	91
92	Virginia Commonwealth	0.50606	92
93	Lehigh	0.50000	93
94	Massachusetts	0.47266	94
95	Duquesne	0.46875	95
96	Loyola (MD)	0.44773	96
97	Belmont	0.43717	97
98	Cincinnati	0.42578	98
99	Pittsburgh	0.42443	99
100	Boise State	0.37750	100
101	DePaul	0.35667	101
102	Akron	0.35000	102
103	Washington	0.33889	103
104	Norfolk State	0.26477	104
105	Richmond	0.18855	105
106	Providence	0.17112	106
107	New Mexico State	0.11506	107
108	Bucknell	0.10695	108
109	St. Bonaventure	0.10491	109
110	TCU	0.07560	110
111	Iowa	0.06639	111
112	Florida State	0.06389	112
113	UCLA	0.06250	113
114	Notre Dame	0.06094	114
115	Georgia State	-0.00682	115
116	Drake	-0.01265	116
117	Auburn	-0.01333	117
118	Nebraska	-0.04643	118
119	UC-Santa Barbara	-0.10000	119
120	Yale	-0.12768	120
121	Drexel	-0.12857	121
122	Long Island	-0.13281	122
123	Tulane	-0.15430	123
124	Georgia	-0.16667	124
125	Mercer	-0.19174	125
126	Oklahoma State	-0.21563	126
127	Penn State	-0.22794	127
128	Air Force	-0.25801	128
129	Butler	-0.27206	129
130	Ball State	-0.28205	130
131	Western Illinois	-0.30714	131
132	Coastal Carolina	-0.34470	132
133	Campbell	-0.35588	133
134	Oregon State	-0.39986	134
135	North Florida	-0.42892	135
136	American University	-0.42969	136
137	North Carolina-Wilmington	-0.45918	137
138	Villanova	-0.46484	138
139	Valparaiso	-0.52101	139
140	Cal Poly	-0.54063	140
141	South Florida	-0.60640	141
142	Maine	-0.63702	142
143	Manhattan	-0.65126	143
144	Charleston Southern	-0.65625	144
145	Texas-Arlington	-0.67857	145
146	Montana	-0.72167	146
147	Utah State	-0.76116	147
148	Tennessee Tech	-0.76738	148
149	Princeton	-0.78237	149
150	Youngstown State	-0.80556	150
151	Southern Methodist	-0.80833	151
152	Washington State	-0.82031	152
153	Fairfield	-0.82129	153
154	Green Bay	-0.83333	154
155	Texas-San Antonio	-0.84444	155
156	Western Michigan	-0.86667	156
157	Tennessee	-0.88155	157
158	Columbia	-0.93352	158
159	San Francisco	-0.95536	159
160	South Alabama	-0.98326	160
161	Cal State Fullerton	-1.02333	161
162	North Carolina-Asheville	-1.02344	162
163	Rice	-1.02679	163
164	Eastern Kentucky	-1.02910	164
165	Northwestern State	-1.03571	165
166	Rutgers	-1.05915	166
167	Western Carolina	-1.06543	167
168	Texas-El Paso	-1.08398	168
169	East Carolina	-1.10000	169
170	Albany	-1.11765	170
171	Texas A&M	-1.12560	171
172	Bowling Green	-1.12755	172
173	East Tennessee State	-1.13265	173
174	IPFW	-1.14881	174
175	Pennsylvania	-1.15863	175
176	USC Upstate	-1.17597	176
177	Holy Cross	-1.17679	177
178	Central Connecticut State	-1.18622	178
179	Louisiana	-1.19761	179
180	Arkansas State	-1.19853	180
181	Wofford	-1.21763	181
182	Lipscomb	-1.23897	182
183	Oakland	-1.25000	183
184	Stony Brook	-1.25893	184
185	St. John's	-1.27083	185
186	Old Dominion	-1.32031	186
187	Texas Tech	-1.32143	187
188	Eastern Washington	-1.33984	188
189	Eastern Illinois	-1.36161	189
190	Hawaii	-1.39722	190
191	Central Michigan	-1.40179	191
192	Wright State	-1.44444	192
193	Loyola Marymount	-1.47024	193
194	Delaware	-1.47449	194
195	Elon	-1.47959	195
196	South Carolina	-1.48661	196
197	Fordham	-1.53333	197
198	North Texas	-1.53493	198
199	Savannah State	-1.55972	199
200	Evansville	-1.56122	200
201	Texas Southern	-1.56667	201
202	Fresno State	-1.58887	202
203	Georgia Tech	-1.61071	203
204	Eastern Michigan	-1.61667	204
205	Coppin State	-1.64167	205
206	Clemson	-1.66667	206
207	Tennessee State	-1.70496	207
208	Idaho	-1.71875	208
209	Houston	-1.74167	209
210	North Carolina Central	-1.77857	210
211	Mississippi Valley State	-1.79627	211
212	UAB	-1.80357	212
213	Furman	-1.81548	213
214	Quinnipiac	-1.82679	214
215	USC	-1.86875	215
216	IUPUI	-1.87049	216
217	Tulsa	-1.87537	217
218	Louisiana Tech	-1.88184	218
219	Portland	-1.90398	219
220	Miami (OH)	-1.93429	220
221	Virginia Military Institute	-2.02827	221
222	Morehead State	-2.04044	222
223	Appalachian State	-2.08036	223
224	Florida Atlantic	-2.08125	224
225	Gardner-Webb	-2.08640	225
226	Southern Utah	-2.08705	226
227	Cornell	-2.09524	227
228	Northeastern	-2.12946	228
229	Central Arkansas	-2.16635	229
230	Vermont	-2.20864	230
231	UC Riverside	-2.22070	231
232	Cal State Bakersfield	-2.22610	232
233	Troy	-2.26667	233
234	North Dakota	-2.28889	234
235	Portland State	-2.28943	235
236	Georgia Southern	-2.30476	236
237	New Jersey Tech	-2.32589	237
238	Marist	-2.32961	238
239	Florida Gulf Coast	-2.33333	239
240	Arkansas-Little Rock	-2.33824	240
241	McNeese State	-2.34327	241
242	Detroit	-2.34531	242
243	Chattanooga	-2.35294	243
244	Stetson	-2.40000	244
245	Toledo	-2.41518	245
246	Pepperdine	-2.43452	246
247	Niagara	-2.48162	247
248	UC Irvine	-2.50000	248
249	Morgan State	-2.50000	249
250	Siena	-2.54762	250
251	High Point	-2.58333	251
252	Northern Colorado	-2.61190	252
253	Southeastern Louisiana	-2.65385	253
254	Lafayette	-2.66094	254
255	UIC	-2.66477	255
256	Presbyterian	-2.74609	256
257	Southeast Missouri State	-2.75000	257
258	Winthrop	-2.76719	258
259	Utah Valley University	-2.77882	259
260	North Carolina A&T	-2.80515	260
261	George Washington	-2.81167	261
262	Houston Baptist	-2.84000	262
263	James Madison	-2.85204	263
264	Bethune-Cookman	-2.87543	264
265	Texas State	-2.87887	265
266	St. Francis (NY)	-2.88889	266
267	Loyola (Chicago)	-2.90852	267
268	Jackson State	-2.91667	268
269	Sam Houston State	-2.95556	269
270	Arizona State	-2.95833	270
271	South Carolina State	-3.04773	271
272	Bradley	-3.08409	272
273	Alabama State	-3.08833	273
274	Stephen F. Austin	-3.10774	274
275	Alabama A&M	-3.12500	275
276	Boston University	-3.14276	276
277	San Jose State	-3.18889	277
278	Florida International	-3.21705	278
279	South Dakota	-3.22500	279
280	Southern Illinois	-3.23833	280
281	Prairie View A&M	-3.27102	281
282	Hofstra	-3.27266	282
283	Nicholls State	-3.28750	283
284	Montana State	-3.34439	284
285	Utah	-3.36667	285
286	Alcorn State	-3.37576	286
287	Southern University	-3.38125	287
288	Sacred Heart	-3.42941	288
289	Northern Arizona	-3.44375	289
290	Missouri-Kansas City	-3.45292	290
291	Colgate	-3.46667	291
292	Boston College	-3.48167	292
293	Austin Peay	-3.51082	293
294	Hampton	-3.54722	294
295	Howard	-3.54977	295
296	Delaware State	-3.58654	296
297	Rider	-3.58824	297
298	Cal State Northridge	-3.70192	298
299	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-3.73333	299
300	Jacksonville State	-3.77431	300
301	San Diego	-3.79667	301
302	Army	-3.82961	302
303	North Carolina-Greensboro	-3.88560	303
304	Maryland-Eastern Shore	-3.91667	304
305	Kennesaw State	-3.92668	305
306	New Hampshire	-4.00673	306
307	Longwood	-4.00966	307
308	St. Francis (PA)	-4.01667	308
309	Monmouth	-4.01803	309
310	Jacksonville	-4.10128	310
311	St. Peter's	-4.10817	311
312	Texas-Pan American	-4.11325	312
313	Sacramento State	-4.25357	313
314	Canisius	-4.30000	314
315	Western Kentucky	-4.35515	315
316	Liberty	-4.58897	316
317	Grambling State	-4.67308	317
318	Rhode Island	-4.69411	318
319	SIU Edwardsville	-4.69615	319
320	Citadel	-4.74659	320
321	Brown	-4.75333	321
322	Idaho State	-4.77500	322
323	Bryant	-4.77500	323
324	Pacific	-4.82500	324
325	Chicago State	-4.85333	325
326	Mount St. Mary's	-5.01667	326
327	William & Mary	-5.03125	327
328	Florida A&M	-5.06851	328
329	Radford	-5.09244	329
330	Dartmouth	-5.33774	330
331	Seattle	-5.45192	331
332	Tennessee-Martin	-5.50000	332
333	Fairleigh Dickinson	-5.81044	333
334	Samford	-5.88961	334
335	Towson	-5.90625	335
336	Maryland-Baltimore County	-5.93077	336
337	Louisiana-Monroe	-6.05294	337
338	Navy	-6.07500	338
339	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-6.31319	339
340	Northern Illinois	-6.92308	340
341	Hartford	-7.17143	341
342	UC Davis	-7.80357	342
343	Binghamton	-8.88000	343
344	Santa Clara	-8.22500	344

Market Based Drafting - worth pursuing?

Now that the fantasy season has largely concluded, this is the time of year where I typically evaluate my fantasy teams.  I'm not going to bore you with this analysis.

When I did that analysis, what did come to my mind was the idea of drafting relative value and various drafting methodologies.  The newest sabermetric method that is being employed is VBD (Value Based Drafting) which is something I employ.  Others who are more skilled have discussed this at length so I won't do this here.  Others go off the top of their head, or mood, or the league site or some expert.  The question came into my mind of how much success would one have if they let the market make their decisions?  Every league scoring system is relative which shifts positional values, but what if you just simply followed what others had paid for a player within position and only purchased (drafted) players who had slipped below market value?

After my 14 team league drafted, I posted a list for the first 8 rounds, by team, of players who had paid premiums and/or gotten a value for their players - that is bought them on the cheap.  This was defined by taking a player greater than +/-2 spots above/below what the market was taking them within their position.  Again, positional scoring fluctuates by league, so positional value will vary.  That's why any draft analysis must value and evaluate choices by position.  Now, let's evaluate whether those players were hits or busts - and if following the market can yield fantasy success.

Our criteria:

Evaluating RBs/WRs:

Any player who finishes within 5 spots of their draft position will be considered a hit.  Any player who finishes in the top 3 of their position overall will be a major hit.  Any player who exceeds their draft position by 10 or more spots will be considered a major hit.  Any player who finishes 5 spots or more outside of their draft rank will be considered a bust; 10 spots or more will be considered a major bust.

Evaluating QB/TE/Defense (in leagues where the top defense will average > 15 fantasy points per game; otherwise, we'll ignore them here):

The top point gainer at the position will be considered a major hit no matter what.

If a player finishes within 2 spots of their draft position, they will be considered a hit - if they finish 5 spots or more above their draft position, they will be considered a major hit.  Falling 3 spots below the draft position will be considered a bust.  Falling 6 or more spots below draft position will be considered a major bust.

If a player is drafted as a non-starter (take the number of teams multiplied by the number of players who start at that position.  In a 14 team league that starts 2 running backs, that means there are 28 starting running backs.  Split the flex position evenly amongst the number of positions (i.e. - a rb/wr flex in a ten team league means that we assume 5 spots are running backs and 5 are wrs):
Hit:  Finishes as starter.
Major Hit:  Finishes in top of half as starters.  There will be no bust points here.

Hits/Busts are worth +/-1 while major hits/busts are worth +/-3.

Here's the 'why's' behind the logic above:
-Teams rarely win their fantasy league in the first round, but they can lose it in the first round.  How did Jamal Charles owners do in your leagues this year?
-Late in the draft your panning for gold.
-When you're drafting starter quality but not top tier guys, landing fair value is a success.

Evaluating the players who a 'premium' was paid for:

In the first 8 rounds of this 14 team league, there were 28 players whom a premium was paid for - which should represent a significant buying opportunity if 1/4 of the players in the first 8 round, players are paying more than the market.

Amongst that group, there was 1 bust, 16 major busts, 7 hits and 3 major hits, with one non-starter drafted in that group.  That means 10/27 players could be considered successful picks; the total points awarded were -33; that equates to the average player being a bust.

How did the value group fare?  There were 32 players who were purchased at a value, or at least a fair amount below market value.  There were 5 busts, 10 major busts, 8 hits and 9 major hits amongst this group; that means 17/32 players in this group could be considered successful picks and the total score was 2.

What conclusions can be taken from this?

The sample size is just one league, but because of the nature of the game, unless someone was in a league full of experts, who knew which players to avoid and which ones to pay a premium for, it's reasonable to expect such results.
The delta between the two groups is about a 16% success rate in terms of finding a reasonable successful player with the pick.
The implication is that out of the first 120 or so picks, 19 would be swayed by taking a 'value player' over a premium player.  That's worth about 2 key picks per league if you payed a premium for your players as opposed to getting them at a discount.  Given the crap-shoot nature of fantasy football - it's a strategy worth considering - or at least weaving it into your draft strategy.
The main caveat is that at the top of your draft, players will likely not be dropping at a discount.  This strategy may not give you an obvious pick in round 1 (and potentially round 2).
However, used properly, it can boost a team from average to contender.  Turning a major bust of a pick into a home-run, can swing a team, or potentially a league.

Happy bargain hunting!

College Basketball Rankings 1-1

1	Syracuse
2	Duke
3	Murray State
4	Baylor
5	Ohio
6	Marquette
7	Connecticut
8	Iona
9	Georgetown
10	Creighton
11	Seton Hall
12	Harvard
13	Louisville
14	Kansas State
15	Kentucky
16	Gonzaga
17	Michigan State
18	Ohio State
19	Missouri
20	UNLV
21	Temple
22	Southern Miss
23	Kansas
24	San Diego State
25	North Carolina
26	Virginia
27	Purdue
28	Indiana
29	Alabama
30	Minnesota
31	Northern Iowa
32	Vanderbilt
33	Michigan
34	Virginia Tech
35	Illinois
36	Virginia Commonwealth
37	Wichita State
38	Stanford
39	Ole Miss
40	Wisconsin
41	Northwestern
42	Saint Mary's
43	St. Joseph's (PA)
44	Cleveland State
45	New Mexico
46	Middle Tennessee State
47	Dayton
48	Kent State
49	West Virginia
50	Loyola (MD)
51	Pittsburgh
52	Colorado State
53	Indiana State
54	Denver
55	Saint Louis
56	Iowa State
57	Wagner
58	California
59	Davidson
60	Florida
61	Mississippi State
62	Missouri State
63	NC State
64	Xavier
65	Wyoming
66	Oklahoma
67	Oregon
68	North Dakota State
69	South Dakota State
70	Memphis
71	Maryland
72	Oral Roberts
73	Massachusetts
74	College of Charleston
75	Marshall
76	Miami (FL)
77	Arizona
78	Robert Morris
79	Lehigh
80	LSU
81	Brigham Young
82	UCF
83	Texas
84	Belmont
85	Milwaukee
86	Colorado
87	Boise State
88	Long Beach State
89	DePaul
90	Lamar
91	Wake Forest
92	Charlotte
93	Providence
94	Florida State
95	Drexel
96	Arkansas
97	Nebraska
98	La Salle
99	Cincinnati
100	Nevada
101	Fairfield
102	South Alabama
103	Richmond
104	St. Bonaventure
105	George Mason
106	Akron
107	Auburn
108	Drake
109	Weber State
110	Cal Poly
111	Tulane
112	Bucknell
113	Norfolk State
114	Duquesne
115	Buffalo
116	TCU
117	Illinois State
118	Georgia
119	Yale
120	Charleston Southern
121	American University
122	Villanova
123	Oklahoma State
124	Washington
125	Oregon State
126	New Mexico State
127	Ball State
128	Notre Dame
129	Manhattan
130	Air Force
131	Washington State
132	Mercer
133	Cal State Fullerton
134	Elon
135	Long Island
136	North Florida
137	Valparaiso
138	Iowa
139	Tulsa
140	Western Carolina
141	Oakland
142	Montana
143	Butler
144	Georgia State
145	Coastal Carolina
146	Rice
147	Green Bay
148	Arkansas State
149	Utah State
150	Santa Clara
151	Penn State
152	Quinnipiac
153	Western Illinois
154	Princeton
155	UCLA
156	Western Michigan
157	UC-Santa Barbara
158	Campbell
159	Texas Tech
160	South Florida
161	Texas A&M
162	North Carolina-Wilmington
163	Eastern Kentucky
164	Pennsylvania
165	USC Upstate
166	Tennessee State
167	Georgia Tech
168	Texas-Arlington
169	Albany
170	East Carolina
171	Eastern Washington
172	Bowling Green
173	IPFW
174	James Madison
175	Eastern Illinois
176	Holy Cross
177	Wofford
178	Rutgers
179	Maine
180	Youngstown State
181	Louisiana
182	North Carolina Central
183	Texas-El Paso
184	Tennessee Tech
185	Old Dominion
186	North Carolina-Asheville
187	Wright State
188	Idaho
189	USC
190	Northwestern State
191	Coppin State
192	Louisiana Tech
193	Southern Methodist
194	UAB
195	Loyola Marymount
196	Columbia
197	Cal State Bakersfield
198	St. John's
199	San Francisco
200	Texas-San Antonio
201	Furman
202	Houston
203	Savannah State
204	Southern Utah
205	Central Michigan
206	Delaware
207	IUPUI
208	Florida Gulf Coast
209	Virginia Military Institute
210	Marist
211	Texas Southern
212	South Carolina
213	Tennessee
214	Fordham
215	Evansville
216	Fresno State
217	Presbyterian
218	Portland State
219	Morehead State
220	Vermont
221	Hofstra
222	Mississippi Valley State
223	Eastern Michigan
224	North Texas
225	Morgan State
226	Southeastern Louisiana
227	Stony Brook
228	Cornell
229	Bradley
230	UC Riverside
231	New Jersey Tech
232	Texas State
233	Hawaii
234	North Dakota
235	Central Connecticut State
236	Northern Colorado
237	Central Arkansas
238	San Jose State
239	Toledo
240	Pepperdine
241	Lipscomb
242	Northeastern
243	Clemson
244	Florida Atlantic
245	Lafayette
246	Utah Valley University
247	Stetson
248	Jackson State
249	Sacred Heart
250	Gardner-Webb
251	East Tennessee State
252	George Washington
253	Troy
254	Alabama A&M
255	Niagara
256	Missouri-Kansas City
257	Houston Baptist
258	Arkansas-Little Rock
259	Detroit
260	Chattanooga
261	Sam Houston State
262	Boston University
263	Southeast Missouri State
264	Kennesaw State
265	Colgate
266	Miami (OH)
267	Portland
268	Pacific
269	Appalachian State
270	New Hampshire
271	South Carolina State
272	North Carolina A&T
273	UIC
274	Boston College
275	Siena
276	Howard
277	Jacksonville
278	UC Irvine
279	McNeese State
280	Alcorn State
281	Prairie View A&M
282	Western Kentucky
283	Jacksonville State
284	Sacramento State
285	San Diego
286	Northern Arizona
287	Florida International
288	St. Francis (NY)
289	High Point
290	Loyola (Chicago)
291	St. Peter's
292	Bethune-Cookman
293	Southern University
294	Winthrop
295	Nicholls State
296	Delaware State
297	Arizona State
298	Georgia Southern
299	Canisius
300	Montana State
301	St. Francis (PA)
302	Cal State Northridge
303	Austin Peay
304	Stephen F. Austin
305	South Dakota
306	Utah
307	Arkansas-Pine Bluff
308	Army
309	Texas-Pan American
310	Grambling State
311	Hampton
312	Maryland-Eastern Shore
313	North Carolina-Greensboro
314	Monmouth
315	Longwood
316	Alabama State
317	Brown
318	Tennessee-Martin
319	Southern Illinois
320	Liberty
321	Rider
322	Navy
323	Idaho State
324	Fairleigh Dickinson
325	Seattle
326	Bryant
327	Radford
328	SIU Edwardsville
329	Chicago State
330	Rhode Island
331	Mount St. Mary's
332	Dartmouth
333	Citadel
334	Florida A&M
335	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
336	Samford
337	William & Mary
338	Towson
339	Maryland-Baltimore County
340	Louisiana-Monroe
341	UC Davis
342	Hartford
343	Northern Illinois
344	Binghamton