Of the 8 first round matchups in this year's NBA Playoffs, I'm most excited to watch this one (albeit, partially through DVR) because of the following:
1) Memphis and the Clippers present a stark contrast in styles. Memphis is a slow-down, defensive oriented club while the Clippers rely on the high flying theatrics of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.
2) Memphis and the Clippers have two entirely different team compositions. Memphis did not have a single player who registered as an all-star in my system, but they have 3 guys who are top 30ish players (if Randolph were healthy, he would fall in this category as well) and they have a nice core group of 8 guys who you can feel OK or better about playing in the playoffs. The Clippers have the runner up for MVP in my book (Chris Paul) and someone who is in between deserving an All NBA spot and being an all-star (Blake Griffin, slightly overrated).
3) Memphis and the Clippers are both good and should give us the most competitive first round series. So with that, let's dive in.
Memphis Profile
The Grizzlies are almost a throw back team of sorts in the Bad Boy Pistons mold. They beat you up, are physical with you on the boards (3rd in offensive rebound %), turn the game into a sort of slow grind where they rarely blow you out (19th on offensive efficiency), but the converse is also true (7th in defensive efficiency). They don't really have an elite scorer (although when you watch Rudy Gay, you feel like he has the potential to be one) but they do manage to generate just enough points that their defense is usually good enough.
Marc Gasol, Gay and Conley are the aforementioned top 30ish players - with both Conley and Gasol taking major steps forward this year. OJ Mayo is a solid starter, who because of his combo guard capabilities (and the fact that the Grizzlies lack another point guard besides Conley), is best suited for a 6th man role. Defensive specialist Tony Allen also registers as a solid starter. Speights and Dante Cunningham are very solid playoff worthy role players and Zach Randolph was a dominant force in the playoffs last year but was limited by injuries this year.
Memphis should expect to struggle mightily offensively. The Clippers are just average defensively, but do manage to force a considerable amount of turnovers, which combined with the fact that the Clippers, like the Grizzlies are strong on the boards, will limit Memphis' shot attempts. And Memphis does not shoot well - just 3 of the 8 simulated lineups are projected to exceed an EFG of 45%, with none hitting the 47% mark. The saving grace for Memphis offensively is the fact that in every scenario, they are expected to get to the foul line more than the Clippers. Unfortunately, relying so heavily on the foul line for your offense has the drawback of you are putting a substantial portion of your offense in the officials' hands. Although Memphis is a physical team, if the refs swallow their whistles, their offensive efficiency will go from bad to worse.
Los Angeles Profile
This year, the Clippers became one of the most exciting teams to watch with the addition of Chris Paul, earning the nickname 'Lob City' because of Paul's alleyoops to Griffin and center DeAndre Jordan.
The Clippers excel in virtually every offensive facet - 4th in overall points per possession, 3rd in turnovers per possession, 4th in offensive rebounding %, 7th in EFG - the only thing they don't do well is get to the line (19th). Defenisvely the team gives mixed results - they have excellent defenders (Paul, Jordan, Eric Bledsoe, Kenyon Martin) but weaker defenders as well (Griffin, Mo Williams, Foye, Butler).
Paul and Griffin get enough accolades - the other Clippers need analyzed as well, but the Clippers lack a weak supporting cast behind Paul and Griffin. No other Clipper registers as having one of the 100 best regular seasons - that's not to say that they don't have solid role players - Williams, Foye, Butler and Jordan all gave them performances equivalent to a 5th starter/6th man and with more minutes, Kenyon Martin likely would have been in the same boat. But to win a championship, that usually doesn't cut it unless your 2 are Shaq & Kobe.
Like Memphis, the Clippers should expect to struggle offensively as well. Most of their strengths are mitigated by Memphis - Memphis forces the most turnovers in the league and is projected to win the turnover battle. Memphis, like the Clippers, are a strong rebounding team and project to make rebounding a toss-up. The Clippers should still expect to shoot a reasonably high percentage against Memphis - but with the turnover/rebounding factors included, the offensive efficiency plummets and the Clippers do not get to the foul line enough to make up for it.
Prediction
This is a bad matchup for the Clippers; anytime you draw an opponent who mitigates all your strengths, this is a recipe for disaster. Memphis' own offensive struggles should keep the series close and the Clippers do have the two best players in the series. However, a weak supporting cast and Memphis being able to slow Griffin down with strong front court depth will likely be the Clippers undoing. Memphis has a 62% expected win probability, which is in-line with how Vegas has priced the series. Expect the Grizzlies to win in 6 or 7.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Playoffs Preview - Boston vs Atlanta
Something I've been developing on and off for the past few years has been an NBA simulator tool. I'm going to roll it out for the two 4-5 series in the first round, and every matchup thereafter this year.
Boston vs Atlanta Boston Profile
This year the big 3 for Boston took on new meaning with Rajon Rondo continuing to be one of the league's premier players, Paul Pierce turning in his finest statistical campaign since their '08 championship run and the venerable Kevin Garnett continuing to defy Father Time. Ray Allen (finally) slipped a bit, but continues to be playing at a level that you would expect of a solid starter - and some of his decline was off-set by Avery Bradley. Among other role players, Brandon Bass, while unspectacular, gave them decent defense and rebounding, while not taking anything off the table, Greg Stiesma - all world defender made a huge impact giving the Celtics much needed rebounding and interior defense to help Garnett carry the workload. Mickael Pietrus and Keyon Dooling are minute fillers; neither gives the Celtics much.
Boston is inconsistent at best on the offensive end of the court, managing to be the league's 27th most efficient offense, but are impenetrable defensively, ranking 1st in the league in points allowed per possession. The Celtics strengths are defense - on a 100 point scale, only Dooling scores lower than a 48 among C's I expect to see take the court this series, and shooting. The shooting factor may surprise given their offensive efficiency but weak rebounding and turnovers are their undoing. My simulator tool works off of 8 lineups that aggregate to a projected outcome; in 6 of those lineups, Boston is projected to turn the ball over more than the Hawks and are only favored on the boards in 1 of the 8 lineup matchups.
Atlanta Profile
When star center Al Horford went down for the year, most prognosticators expected Atlanta to flounder. However, Josh Smith simply refused to let the ship sink, turning in by far his best season. Don't let his omission from the All-Star game fool you - that was a gross omission. Based on my numbers, Smith had the 3rd most productive regular season among Eastern Conference players and had production equivalant to a 2nd or 3rd All-NBA team caliber player. In a year when most established players regressed (due to the nature of the season), Joe Johnson actually raised his game and his production exceeded his 2011 production. The blossoming of Jeff Teague also helped Atlanta avoid a collapse and has now reached a point where it's OK if he is your 3rd best player (which he is for the Hawks). Additionally, the Hawks have fair depth - no one on their team who I expect to play in this series is simply minutes fillers and all bring something to the table.
Atlanta is similar to Boston - they struggle on the offensive end (16th in offensive efficiency) but are impressive defensively (6th in points allowed per possession). Unfortunately, the gap in the defense is Joe Johnson - the only below average defensive player in the Hawks' rotation. I say unfortunate because during much of the series Johnson will be asked to defend Paul Pierce or Ray Allen - 1st and 3rd respectively in points per 36 minutes on the Celtics. Similar to Boston, the Hawks are a strong shooting team but are weak rebounders. The strength is mitigated by Boston's stifling defense as the Hawks are projected to shoot a lower EFG in every matchup but as previously mentioned dominate the boards. The key to Atlanta's success will be how well they shoot - they should do fine on the boards against a weak rebounding Boston squad and win the turnover edge - they will have to effectively convert the turnovers into easy baskets before the Boston defense can establish itself.
Simulated Outcome
As you might expect, both teams are projected to struggle offensively and both are projected to produce considerably fewer points per possession than their regular season totals. Boston is projected to win in a close defensive struggle with a margin of 3.5 points per 100 possessions; expect this to go 6 or 7 and has an estimated 54% series win probability. In Vegas, the Hawks are nearly 2:1 underdogs - meaning that my simulator suggests that the Hawks are a fairly good value play, particularly with homecourt advantage.
Tomorrow, I'll preview Memphis and the Clippers.
Boston vs Atlanta Boston Profile
This year the big 3 for Boston took on new meaning with Rajon Rondo continuing to be one of the league's premier players, Paul Pierce turning in his finest statistical campaign since their '08 championship run and the venerable Kevin Garnett continuing to defy Father Time. Ray Allen (finally) slipped a bit, but continues to be playing at a level that you would expect of a solid starter - and some of his decline was off-set by Avery Bradley. Among other role players, Brandon Bass, while unspectacular, gave them decent defense and rebounding, while not taking anything off the table, Greg Stiesma - all world defender made a huge impact giving the Celtics much needed rebounding and interior defense to help Garnett carry the workload. Mickael Pietrus and Keyon Dooling are minute fillers; neither gives the Celtics much.
Boston is inconsistent at best on the offensive end of the court, managing to be the league's 27th most efficient offense, but are impenetrable defensively, ranking 1st in the league in points allowed per possession. The Celtics strengths are defense - on a 100 point scale, only Dooling scores lower than a 48 among C's I expect to see take the court this series, and shooting. The shooting factor may surprise given their offensive efficiency but weak rebounding and turnovers are their undoing. My simulator tool works off of 8 lineups that aggregate to a projected outcome; in 6 of those lineups, Boston is projected to turn the ball over more than the Hawks and are only favored on the boards in 1 of the 8 lineup matchups.
Atlanta Profile
When star center Al Horford went down for the year, most prognosticators expected Atlanta to flounder. However, Josh Smith simply refused to let the ship sink, turning in by far his best season. Don't let his omission from the All-Star game fool you - that was a gross omission. Based on my numbers, Smith had the 3rd most productive regular season among Eastern Conference players and had production equivalant to a 2nd or 3rd All-NBA team caliber player. In a year when most established players regressed (due to the nature of the season), Joe Johnson actually raised his game and his production exceeded his 2011 production. The blossoming of Jeff Teague also helped Atlanta avoid a collapse and has now reached a point where it's OK if he is your 3rd best player (which he is for the Hawks). Additionally, the Hawks have fair depth - no one on their team who I expect to play in this series is simply minutes fillers and all bring something to the table.
Atlanta is similar to Boston - they struggle on the offensive end (16th in offensive efficiency) but are impressive defensively (6th in points allowed per possession). Unfortunately, the gap in the defense is Joe Johnson - the only below average defensive player in the Hawks' rotation. I say unfortunate because during much of the series Johnson will be asked to defend Paul Pierce or Ray Allen - 1st and 3rd respectively in points per 36 minutes on the Celtics. Similar to Boston, the Hawks are a strong shooting team but are weak rebounders. The strength is mitigated by Boston's stifling defense as the Hawks are projected to shoot a lower EFG in every matchup but as previously mentioned dominate the boards. The key to Atlanta's success will be how well they shoot - they should do fine on the boards against a weak rebounding Boston squad and win the turnover edge - they will have to effectively convert the turnovers into easy baskets before the Boston defense can establish itself.
Simulated Outcome
As you might expect, both teams are projected to struggle offensively and both are projected to produce considerably fewer points per possession than their regular season totals. Boston is projected to win in a close defensive struggle with a margin of 3.5 points per 100 possessions; expect this to go 6 or 7 and has an estimated 54% series win probability. In Vegas, the Hawks are nearly 2:1 underdogs - meaning that my simulator suggests that the Hawks are a fairly good value play, particularly with homecourt advantage.
Tomorrow, I'll preview Memphis and the Clippers.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Mission: Protect the future of the US (Part 1) - laying the foundation
I haven't written anything in a while due to work, travels but also because I've been preparing a lengthy mini-series blog.
Tax season has just passed and now the 2012 presidential election looms on the horizon - with the US facing significant challenges:
-As CNN noted in the last week (although this was fairly widely known), Social Security and Medicare face shortfalls that are sooner than was previously expected - the programs will be unable to pay full benefits within 2 decades.
-The national debt now exceeds GDP.
-The United States spends more on health care per capita than any other country in the world - and does not come close to achieving the best health outcomes.
-The United States spends more on defense than the rest of the world combined.
-Unemployment has stubbornly remained above 8%, despite the monetary supply increasing by nearly 10% in the last year.
The United States is in dire need of a long term plan to stabilize the economy, fix social security/medicare and create a sustainable fiscal/monetary structure. The following multi-part series will present a fiscal policy designed to achieve those aims. This is not the only plan that could achieve those aims, but in my humble opinion it is a plan that is the most likely to achieve these objectives.
The plan is based on the following principles: 1) Risk taking must be rewarded without invoking moral hazard. When a person starts or invests in a business, he or she is inherently taking a risk. They are risking their capital, time and other resources in hopes of a higher long term return. Taxation erodes the return from that risk - as such taxation upon capital investments and business investments must be taxed at the lowest levels possible. At the same time, we must create a situation where we will not reward individuals who have over-leveraged themselves in an irresponsible manner - failure must be allowed.
2) Barriers to employing Americans must be reduced. When companies are taxed on employing individuals, this increases the marginal cost of labor and therefore reduces the demand for labor.
3) Due to health care costs, health care is the largest risk to the middle class' prosperity - it must be addressed in a substantial way that minimizes the risk of health issues jepoardizing Americans' future. Despite advances in medicine, the availability of nutritious food, and the opportunity to exercise, all our bodies will eventually break down. As previously noted, the United States spends more per health care than any country and does not achieve top tier health outcomes.
4) Transfer payments and welfare packages are not affordable. The United States spends over $1.40 for every dollar that it takes in. It cannot afford to tax individual A to provide for individual B. The answer to most 'why was X cut?' questions boils down to a fairly simple answer: The United States cannot afford it.
5) The Tax code can and should be simplified. Economic decisions should be made in maximizing individual welfare - those decisions should not be artificially altered and has created bubbles (see housing) - tax breaks should be accounted as representng spending while the tax rate represents the actual taxation. Sources for the myriad statements I present in the series will be presented in the final edition.
Future editions will be as follows and will be released weekly for the next several weeks. Part 2 - Accompanying/Preceding Legislation Part 3 - What will we spend? Part 4 - How will we pay for it? Part 5 - Goals.
-As CNN noted in the last week (although this was fairly widely known), Social Security and Medicare face shortfalls that are sooner than was previously expected - the programs will be unable to pay full benefits within 2 decades.
-The national debt now exceeds GDP.
-The United States spends more on health care per capita than any other country in the world - and does not come close to achieving the best health outcomes.
-The United States spends more on defense than the rest of the world combined.
-Unemployment has stubbornly remained above 8%, despite the monetary supply increasing by nearly 10% in the last year.
The United States is in dire need of a long term plan to stabilize the economy, fix social security/medicare and create a sustainable fiscal/monetary structure. The following multi-part series will present a fiscal policy designed to achieve those aims. This is not the only plan that could achieve those aims, but in my humble opinion it is a plan that is the most likely to achieve these objectives.
The plan is based on the following principles: 1) Risk taking must be rewarded without invoking moral hazard. When a person starts or invests in a business, he or she is inherently taking a risk. They are risking their capital, time and other resources in hopes of a higher long term return. Taxation erodes the return from that risk - as such taxation upon capital investments and business investments must be taxed at the lowest levels possible. At the same time, we must create a situation where we will not reward individuals who have over-leveraged themselves in an irresponsible manner - failure must be allowed.
2) Barriers to employing Americans must be reduced. When companies are taxed on employing individuals, this increases the marginal cost of labor and therefore reduces the demand for labor.
3) Due to health care costs, health care is the largest risk to the middle class' prosperity - it must be addressed in a substantial way that minimizes the risk of health issues jepoardizing Americans' future. Despite advances in medicine, the availability of nutritious food, and the opportunity to exercise, all our bodies will eventually break down. As previously noted, the United States spends more per health care than any country and does not achieve top tier health outcomes.
4) Transfer payments and welfare packages are not affordable. The United States spends over $1.40 for every dollar that it takes in. It cannot afford to tax individual A to provide for individual B. The answer to most 'why was X cut?' questions boils down to a fairly simple answer: The United States cannot afford it.
5) The Tax code can and should be simplified. Economic decisions should be made in maximizing individual welfare - those decisions should not be artificially altered and has created bubbles (see housing) - tax breaks should be accounted as representng spending while the tax rate represents the actual taxation. Sources for the myriad statements I present in the series will be presented in the final edition.
Future editions will be as follows and will be released weekly for the next several weeks. Part 2 - Accompanying/Preceding Legislation Part 3 - What will we spend? Part 4 - How will we pay for it? Part 5 - Goals.
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